New World Notes

How to Build a Big Ass Mesh Avatar & Other Fun SL Tutorials on YouTube

The Mighty Ginkgo is a fun, chatty, and valuable YouTube channel [2:50am: See update below] full of SL development tutorials, mostly around creating and customizing mesh-based avatars. This one above, for example, explains how to import a mesh-based fairy into SL, and then make that fairy fairly giant. Here's the resultant mega-fairy:

If IMAX's VR Arcade is a "Huge Hit", Why Is It Making Much Less Money Than a Small Movie Theater?

Mashable recently declared IMAX's VR Arcade a "huge hit", and the company CEO seems to agree:

"Our LA facility, which has been opened for roughly 3 months now, has seen over 20,000 unique visitors," said IMAX CEO Richard Lewis Gelfond during the earnings call. "From a revenue standpoint, the center is pacing at roughly $15,000 a week over the last month or so, including our highest grossing week to date, this past week, and continues to exceed expectations." ... At the time, such bullish talk wasn't hard to believe because we kept getting interrupted by the constant flow of consumer traffic coming in off the street. Real, non-techie families and couples were coming in to buy a ticket to a VR experience ($7-$10), and it was like watching the dawn of a new entertainment era.

It's easy to think you're glimpsing a new dawn if you don't scrutinize it against an old entertainment model and do some basic math. For example, contrast those IMAX VR arcade numbers with a small movie theater of, say, some 300 seats:

• Assume 28 screenings per week (four a day)
• Assume an average of 200 audience members per screening (sometimes more, sometimes less)
• Assume each audience member is paying $8 per ticket (roughly the LA average price now)

On that model, our tiny old school movie theater is making way more than the VR arcade:

How Jazmin & Team Created Her Vividly Lifelike High Fidelity Avatar

Remember this stylistically realistic High Fidelity avatar modeled after her owner, High Fidelity's Jazmin Cano? Here's how she was created, as explained by Jazmin herself -- a combination of 3D scanning of her actual, physical self, then layered on top with some artistic flourishes:

"I got scanned at Doob3D and one of our artists did a 'pass' on it, which is a cleanup of the mesh using software that includes Autodesk Maya," Jazmin tells me. "Then we had another artist help sculpt around the eyes to help get it a bit more symmetrical."

Then came Jazmin's final flourishes which added personality to the model:

Veteran Game Dev Converting 2D Ultima Online Into 3D Experience

What you’re looking at above is Ultima Online as you’ve never seen the classic, groundbreaking MMO that's still running after nearly 20 years -- converted from its 2D origins into a full 3D world. It’s a labor of love of veteran game designer and artist Andrea Fryer, who’s worked at Ubisoft and other major companies. Since Easter weekend, she’s been translating UO’s maps into Wurm Unlimited, a sandbox MMO which allows players to own and customize their own private servers.

“For anyone for whom Ultima Online was their ‘first love MMO’, they well know the wistful yearning that is left from experiencing those magical times,” Andrea tells me, explaining why she’s put so much work into this project.

“Each new MMO they try is compared to UO, and so far nothing has fully been able to offer the full array of experiences and feelings that UO provided. So one of the reasons for doing this is to ‘process’ that yearning and channel it into something. Similar to why people will do fan art or musical covers of their favorite star… UO was never made into an official first person 3d game - instead it was always from an isometric god view, so I was extremely curious to see how the world would look if I could actually look around and feel immersed in the environment.”

The other reason is the platform. “[T]he god tools in Wurm Unlimited are just so darned fun to use,” as she puts it. “So it's like you almost look for a reason to use them. Just like when you build a house in The Sims, the process itself is so much fun so you find an excuse to make something, anything!”

When it’s ready for other players to explore, up to 200 can inhabit her Ultima server. At first it’ll just be a “tourist attraction” that players can explore without interacting within. However, since it’ll already come with Wurm Online’s RPG interface baked in, she’s planning to add some light MMORPG mechanics to it:

Linden Lab Apparently Pushes Sansar Release Schedule From Open Beta This Spring to Open Alpha This Summer

So in March, Upload VR reported this: New Linden Lab Video Promises Sansar Open Beta this Spring.

But earlier this month, the Irish Times reported this:

Sansar goes into open alpha in summer 2017, allowing anyone with a VR headset to sign up and try it out

Now a difference between Spring and Summer is just 2-3 months, so that's not much of a delay. But a difference between Alpha and Beta suggests Sansar is still in a very early stage of development. At that rate, we may not see an official post-Beta release until the holiday season or even 2018. This would explain why Linden Lab is even now looking for someone to help create a voxel-based terrain editor for Sansar. My first thought at that help wanted ad was, "Cool!" Followed by, "Um, shouldn't you have hired someone to build that maybe 2 years ago?"

Watch "The one that I want": Bryn Oh's Utterly Eerie Machinima Shot in Her Latest Metaverse Art Installation

If you've got chills, watch this and they'll be multiplying -- shot in dynamic shadow and swooping camerawork, it's a gorgeously creepy music video created by Canadian government-funded Second Life-based artist Bryn Oh, shot in her latest installation: "The Hand", which is "the story of Flutter, a girl who has something precious in a suitcase and lives in a world of Sleepers."

Click here for the official in-world listing, and read about it on Bryn Oh's blog. Second Life being Second Life, it's an enormous pain to enjoy the optimal experience as the artist intended:

Survey Results: SL Users Without Premium Accounts Show Strong Preference for More Virtual Land to Upgrade

Here's the results from last week's survey, asking Second Life users on this blog what they would need in order to get a Premium account. With 200 responses, this is a relatively large (if informal) data sample of hardcore SLers, so it's notable that nearly half already have a Premium account. If all of SL's roughly 600K active users converted to monthly premium, Second Life could exist into perpetuity, despite constant loss of private land sims and tier. So it's notable that a strong plurality wants a larger tier allotment to make that upgrade.

Also, there's copious amounts of virtual land on the main continents of Second Life. According to analyst Tyche Shepherd, over 20% of the mainland represents abandoned land. So Linden Lab could easily expand the tier offering for Premium subscribers.

Expanding tier would probably also encourage existing Premium holders not to downgrade. As reader "Snowhawk" puts it:

SL Premium Isn't Very Premium; Bring Back SL Go! (Comment of the Week)

Last week's survey asking SLers what they would need to convert to a Premium account attracted this smart diatribe from reader William Burns, who analyzed the core of the problem, as he sees it. I hope Linden Lab staffers are reading this (as they often do), because it's a smart analysis:

The problem with Premium Accounts is that there is little incentive to actually buy into them. Most of the "perks" are merely duplications of things a non-premium member can attain as a regular citizen, or are superficial "upgrades" that aren't really a big deal.

1. 300L Stipend. Essentially you'd get this if you spent the same amount normally to buy the L$ as you needed. Most "jobs" in SL alone can net you far more than this per week without paying into the system.

2. Exclusive Access to Premium Only areas. The citizens of Second Life create a massive amount of open regions which are pretty amazing. Putting content behind a premium account doesn't seem like a compelling reason.

3. Premium Virtual Gifts. Every virtual item I've seen Linden Lab offer as a premium gift has been matched or bested by independent designers on Marketplace openly. You remember the "Hoverboard" pack right? VETOX had a far superior hoverboard system for free on MP. Dune Buggy? Same deal. There are better alternatives without the Premium Account, or at least comparable.

4. Customer Support. I'm not entirely sure this is worthwhile on its own, but I'll throw it in there as a possible positive for people who aren't as tech savvy.

The rest is pretty much inconsequential to me.

So what would compel Mr. Burns (Mr. Burns, excellent!) to convert to Premium? Here you go, Linden Lab:

Top Five New World Notes Posts from Last Week!

• Space Adds Free, Customizable Private Room & Furniture System To Its Unity-Based Virtual World
• Oculus Founder Palmer Luckey Revealed As Major Trump Donor, Contradicting Previous Statements
• Facebook Spaces: VR Product Without Much Market Or Reason To Be
• Do You Want A Master Metaverse Artist To Photograph Your Virtual Home?
• Survey: Do You Have A Premium Second Life Account, Or If Not, What Would Make You Get One?

SL Machinima Masterpieces: Lainy Voom's "Fall" (2009)

Fall from Lainy Voom on Vimeo.

Still among the very most powerful machinima I've ever seen, Lainy Voom conveys deep emotion with perfectly composed shots and edits timed to a perfectly chosen soundtrack (by Claire Fitch), integrating clever use of WindLight (when it still very new to Second Life) and the scripting system for visual effects. As she told me back then:

Space Adds Free, Customizable Private Room & Furniture System to Its Unity-Based Virtual World

Space, the new Unity-based virtual world from veteran Second Life developers (and proud sponsoring partner to New World Notes), has a fun new feature you could try (for free, of course) this weekend: A customizable private room and furniture system, dubbed Floorplan. The goal is to make it seriously simple, even for MMO noobies, to lay out and personalize beautiful scenes. "We don't want to force users to learn complex tools to do common tasks like decorate a home or personal environment," as lead Space developer Adam Frisby puts it. "The new Floorplan system lets users get started quickly, but still perform complex edits if they want to."

Tutorial video below. To get started with Floorplan, just create a free account, download the client or launch the web-based version, and click the Home button to start (see below):

Watch Live Now: High Fidelity Hosts The First Talent Show in Social VR

Live now above, with avatars competing for a $1000 prize. Unless I missed another example, this is the first avatar-based talent show in social VR with full VR rigs.

Professional 3D Designer Defends Advocating for Better Optimized Digital Design in Second Life

Veteran Second Life content creator and real life designer/visual arts consultant Penny Patton posted a pretty funny FAQ based on feedback she's gotten from her incredibly valuable posts on how to optimize SL builds (as here and as here). To judge by the questions she's responding to, a lot of SLers get strangely defensive about her advice:

* Why should the average SL user have to be an expert on digital design?   

I frequently talk about how optimizing content can greatly benefit your SL experience and this has lead to some people mistakenly taking this to mean that I believe the average SL user should be doing these things.

I do not. My position has always been that the average SL user should not even need to think about optimization or any other digital design issues. Good content should be made available by proficient builders.

* So then you believe only those who are experts on digital design should be allowed to create content?

 Again, no. I believe there are things LL can and should do to make it easier for the average SL user to follow some basic practices which result in a better shared experience for everyone, without SL users even thinking about it.

Here's another question with an answer that should be set in virtual stone:

Don't Forget to Take NWN's Survey on Upgrading to SL Premium

Click here to take by next Monday. Linden Lab marketers are standing by (maybe).

SL Flickr for Friday: The Menacing Black & White Photos of Aimee Cristole

With her fantastic use of unexpected angles, dramatic shadow, and black and white imagery, Aimee Cristole brings beauty and also dark menace to her avatar fashion photos. Here's another great one:

Soda Gnome Explores Second Life as Only a Soda Gnome Can

Soda Gnome! How does he do it? Why does he do it? We don't yet know, but you should definitely see him in action, shooting random insane encounters in the virtual world. NSFW warning for above: Zombie sex, Darth Vader stripping, breasts as a weapon, other epic strangeness. A follow-up video plunges us into still more NSFW-ish (but good natured, goddammit) territory, featuring gratuitous nudity, woman-dancing-on-head, virtual showers, Star Trek and La La Land references:

Linden Lab Joins Second Life Amicus Brief Against Trump's Muslim Immigrant Ban Because Lindens Are Lindens

While Palmer Luckey and Peter Thiel continue their support for Trump, Linden Lab and other major players in the tech industry haven't forgotten about Trump's ongoing mission to ban Muslim immigrants and refugees from America, joining an amicus brief against the second version of the ban with 160 tech companies signed:

In a brief filed in the U.S. District Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, a host of Silicon Valley heavyweights lambasted Trump’s new order — his second attempt, after a judge blocked his first one — and stressed it would inflict “substantial harm on U.S. companies, their employees, and the entire economy”... The brief — filed today by a total 162 tech firms, including Uber, SpaceX, Spotify and Twitter — represents the Valley’s latest legal salvo against Trump’s immigration policies.

The brief is posted at the bottom of this Recode post here. Notably, Linden Research, Inc. is the only virtual world/VR-focused company on the list, with just Bungie, Electronic Arts, and Zynga among the computer/mobile/videogame industry signees.

SL Flickr of the Day: The Dangerous Fashion Shots of Zib Scaggs

Zib Scaggs shoots SL fashion scenes with a difference, and the difference is danger -- dark, dreamy, erotic. (Along with make-up palette-type displays, which still have and edge.) Another breathtaking one below:

Oculus Founder Palmer Luckey Revealed as Major Trump Donor, Contradicting Previous Statements

Two weeks after being defenestrated from Oculus VR, the company he founded, Palmer Luckey just posted this public Facebook update depicting Ben Kenobi about to say, "If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine." It was his very first Facebook post since posting his September 2016 apology about secretly supporting a pro-Trump meme group, so I was curious if the Kenobi post meant Palmer was in the news lately.

Turns out yes, because Mother Jones just posted this report:

Luckey hasn't given up on Trump. On January 4, Trump's official inauguration committee received a $100,000 donation from a limited liability company named Wings of Time. The inauguration committee filings list an office tower in Los Angeles as the address for Wings of Time, but there is no individual's name associated with the organization. California corporation records show a different address in the city of Long Beach for Wings of Time. That address matches the one used by Luckey on various occasions for different business projects... Luckey's six-figure donation is equal to other tech moguls and Trump fixtures such as investor Peter Thiel, who also gave $100,000 to the inauguration effort.

This directly contradicts Luckey's September Facebook statement, in which he said:

The recent news stories about me do not accurately represent my views... I am a libertarian who has publicly supported Ron Paul and Gary Johnson in the past, and I plan on voting for Gary in this election as well...I don’t have any plans to donate beyond what I have already given to Nimble America.

While the Facebook statements are contradictory, it's worth noting Luckey's vision for VR is very much consistent with Trump's vision for America, in which (as Alex Baldwin put it recently), the people either work in Goldman Sachs, or in coal mines:

Facebook Spaces: VR Product Without Much Market or Reason to Be

So, Facebook Spaces for Oculus is out in Beta now and later for other VR platforms. (See video above.) It's basically a first life for your second life. Seriously:

Be Yourself in VR: It’s easy to create an identity that represents the real you in Facebook Spaces. This helps people recognize you and makes VR feel more like hanging out in person. Just choose one of your Facebook photos and you’ll see an array of options for your VR appearance.

It looks like fun and it makes impressive use of expressive, cartoon-like avatars, so all credit to the development team there. But I'm not quite seeing who, exactly, is going to use it:

• Oculus Rift has a tiny userbase -- like seriously, just some 250,000 units sold last year. So that's going to hurt any kind of networking effect.
• The people who would use an avatar-based voice chat system already have one -- it's called Snapchat, which comes with fun augmented reality-type effects. Not to mention FaceTime and all the many "be together live with friends" apps out there.

That's not even mentioning that there's nothing much to do in Facebook Spaces, and that's actually by design:

Bento Tutorial: What You Need to Know Before Building a Bento Head

Medhue, master builder of Bento-based snakes and elephants and such has this tutorial on creating a Bento-based Second Life avatar head. Or maybe better to call it a pre-tutorial tutorial, since it's more about background you need to know before even starting. For instance, he explains, eyes to your Bento head need to be exactly lined up with the default eyes, or your eyes will look off. (Which might explain some odd eyeballs I've seen in Bento faces lately.) He goes so far to suggest getting rid of everything from the default head except the eyes.

Do You Want a Master Metaverse Artist to Photograph Your Virtual Home?

Click here if you have a virtual home in Second Life and you're interested in having it photographed by acclaimed metaverse artist Whiskey Monday, whose new project, CTRL-SHIFT-H, seeks to depict the real life within a virtual home:

In addition to my own homes, I’ve been fascinated with other SL homes. From space stations to underwater grottos, tiny cabins to huge castles, furry warrens to a mixture of all of these- there are as many styles of homes as there are styles of residents. And while we may all be shopping from the same creator’s marketplace, each home in SL is one-of-a-kind and a direct reflection of the resident who built it.

As you might have guessed, the photos on the site announcement are from Whiskey's own virtual home, and they say something about the person behind the virtual home owner:

Lifelike Non-Uncanny High Fidelity Avatar Created With Doob 3D Tech

So far the realistic High Fidelity avatars have swung way too deep into the Uncanny Valley for me, but I just came across this avatar from HiFi Event Coordinator Jazmin Cano which successfully makes the leap -- stylistic and lively while definitely recognizable as her. (Compare with these photorealistic but dead-eyed High Fidelity avatars.) It was created through doob 3D, an in-person 3d modeling/printing technology, but Jazmin tells me there was some extra magic to convert her avatar into High Fidelity-ready form.

Watch: Building Content in Immerse Creator's Social VR for Enterprise App

Here's a fairly mesmerizing tutorial for Immerse Creator, the new social VR platform for enterprise I wrote about last week that's lead developed by Jon Brouchoud, an architect who's been pioneering VR for about a decade, starting in Second Life. (Compare and contrast with the object editor in Sansar.)

While it's designed for real world applications of VR, I can totally see Jon's experience in SL reflected in the user interface, which totally reminds me of Second Life's old school, prim-based object editor. But as Jon told me, it's not trying to be a metaverse:

Survey: Do You Have a Premium Second Life Account, Or If Not, What Would Make You Get One?

Last week's post on staunching Second Life's revenue loss brought up a lot of interesting ideas and passionate debate, but the most immediate way of stabilizing SL is through growth in monthly Premium subscriptions (currently $6 to $9.50 a month, depending how you pay). Hence this survey -- do you have a Premium account already, and if not, what would it take for you to get one? Many possibilities above, and by all means suggest your own in Comments below.

Marfa,Texas Recreated in Second Life for Your Hipster Fashion & No Country for Old Men Cosplay Photo Needs

Click here to visit The Last Forever, a new sim inspired by the small iconic town of Marfa, Texas. Inspired by a tip from master metaverse explorer Pepa Cometa, I just teleported there myself and was duly impressed. Rather than try photograph it myself, though, here's some pics of the place from Melusina Parkin. If they look eerily familiar, there's a good reason for that: Marfa was a backdrop in contemporary classic films No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. In recent years the town has has attracted a rather large community of artists and hipsters, especially from nearby Austin, so I fully expect to see Second Life imitate real life with frequent virtual fashion and art photos from The Last Forever.

Space Virtual World Adding Volumetric Lighting Effects to Editor

Gorgeous recent image from Space, the new virtual world (and proud sponsoring partner of NWN) showcasing new volumetric effects coming soon to the world editor. "Volumetric" is geek speak for cool lighting effects, to wit:

Things You Can Do With Bento-Based Avatars: Form a Heart With Another

Lovely demo from Gocciolina Navarita illustrates the value of articulated fingers made possible with the new Bento avatar skeleton of Second Life avatars. See also: Bento Avatar Hands So Articulated They Can Cast Shadow Puppets.

Top Seven New World Notes Posts from Last Week!

• Are Second Life's Avatar Defaults Unconsciously Biased For White Avatars? Who Really Thinks That 10-15 Million VR Headsets Will Be Sold This Year? UPDATE: Analyst Clarifies This Is A Global Forecast Which Includes China
• "Be Creative -- Please!" Longtime Linden Lab Veteran Pleads With Company To Staunch Second Life's Revenue Loss With New Ideas
• Beth Fukumoto, Rising US Political Star (& Level 70 Blood Elf Paladin) On The Real Life Lessons Learned By Playing MMOs
• Here's A Hype-Free VR Headset Sales Forecast: 7.4 Million In 2017 For A Total Install Base Of 61.6 By 2020
• Linden Lab Building Editable, Voxel-Based Terrain For Sansar
• Immerse Creator: Collaborative Creation In Private, Secure VR Spaces
• VR Developers: You Really Need To Talk About Your "Bedding Taylor Swift In The Oculus Rift" Problem Before It's Too Late

VR Developers: You Really Need to Talk About Your "Bedding Taylor Swift in the Oculus Rift" Problem Before It's Too Late

Shortly after Facebook purchased Oculus VR back in 2014, I attended a VR conference featuring Palmer Luckey, who of course was the star of the show. In the press room, he was surrounded by game industry reporters and podcasters peppering him with fanboy questions, one of which touched on virtual reality porn. As I recall, Palmer casually talked about porn as just one of many possible VR use cases, and wasn't too concerned about the potential PR issues around it.

"You don't understand," I said, interrupting Luckey. "When Second Life was at its peak in media hype and interest from big companies like IBM and Amazon, we started getting hit with salacious news stories about porn in Second Life. And then way worse, a German TV news program even reported about simulated child pornography with avatars. It was a huge PR disaster and totally freaked out the major companies and educators, who started pulling away. To this day, Second Life has a stigma because of it." (Or words to that effect.)

Palmer Luckey looked at me like I was a crazy man, and went on with the interview.

Which brings us to sex with Taylor Swift in the Oculus Rift -- which is a line in Father John Misty's sardonically brilliant indie hit, "Total Entertainment Forever":

Bedding Taylor Swift

Every night inside the Oculus Rift

After mister and the missus

finish dinner and the dishes

And now the future's definition is so much higher than it was last year

It's like the images have all become real

And someone's living my life for me out in the mirror

Here's Father John Misty explaining his reasons for these lines which he recently sung on Saturday Night Live:

My, Ms. Lilliehook Likes the Best Second Life Photos on Flickr

Cajsa Lilliehook's latest "What I Like" compilation of the best in Second Life-based imagery and photographer is online. I love how she reviews each with an art critic's eye and applies where appropriate the Golden Ratio rule. Above is one of my own favorites from her favorites, Taleah Mcmahon's fashion photo from a unique angle with a really nice, life-like treatment of avatar hair.

Ebbe Altberg Talks About Innovating SL's Content & Interaction... But Not Its Revenue Model

Ciaran Laval has a good summary of a recent interview with Linden Lab's fearless (and surprisingly burly!) leader in The Irish Times, who takes the time to tell the Times about what the company's doing with Sansar (boilerplate, basically) and to Second Life as well:

The idea is not to replace Second Life or even phase it out, says Altberg, who describes it as “a very healthy virtual world that will be very healthy for a long time to come”. It is celebrating its 14th birthday this summer and continues to have a dedicated team continually improving content and interaction experiences... Altberg says that it will be considerably different from Second Life where users had to pay to own land or have access to a simulator: “We believe this model is too expensive and meanwhile we have this massive GDP, none of which Linden Lab captures.”

Two things: "Very healthy" doesn't quite capture a virtual world that's lost half its annual revenue over the last 6-7 years, or even more key, is continually losing long-existing masterpieces because SL users can't afford to keep them in Second Life. I understand putting on a brave face with the press, but then to talk about Second Life's revenue model being "too expensive" is kinda contradictory, and raises a more important point:

Avatars Against Trump: Marianne McCann's Worst Fears

Marianne McCann just uploaded the mother of all Avatars Against Trump pics which is uniquely and darkly fitting for this week.

More Avatars Against Trump pics here -- submit your own image or video here.

Immerse Creator: Collaborative Creation in Private, Secure VR Spaces

Immersive Interactive, lead developed by Jon Brouchoud, an architect who's been pioneering VR for about a decade in Second Life with the award-winning Wikitecture and beyond, is a social VR platform for collaborative building. It's an outgrowth of his Immersive Collaborative platform which I blogged about in 2015, but with some key differences. 

"Immerse Collaborative was a toolset for VR developers," as Jon puts it to me. "Immerse Creator, on the other hand, is a consumer VR application that anyone with a Rift or Vive can buy on Steam, and very quickly start sketching VR environments with 3D primitive modeling, freeform line drawing, along with a library of assets and materials to create with. They can create environments on their own in single player mode, or join a multi-player room and share what they've created with others."

It's going live to Steam in the next several days, and it's decidedly different from the kind of creation promised in Sansar and available in High Fidelity. Frankly, it seems much better designed for real world use by architects and others. Here's why:

Linden Lab Building Editable, Voxel-Based Terrain for Sansar

I'm still somewhat skeptical about Linden Lab's Sansar based on anything the company releases to the public so far. But you know what's making me more interested in Sansar? This Linden Lab Help Wanted ad on LinkedIn:

The Senior Software Engineer, Terrain expert’s primary function is to perform critical analysis of existing system architecture and take the helm of developing a scalable, performant, voxel based terrain system. This position will also design and implement the tool set used by customers to manipulate terrain... Our engineering team is building Sansar’s proprietary technology from the ground up. We have accomplished so much, yet there is still a wide breadth of projects for the curious engineer who wants to be on the cutting edge of VR and next gen technology. If you like solving challenges beyond anything you’ve ever done, particularly in videogames, we want to talk to you.

Screen-captured below for posterity! So from this description at least, it's not yet (or far along) in development. Color me impressed: I'm no graphics expert, pulling off a high-resolution voxel terrain system would be quite impressive (ask John Carmack) and to make it user-editable, far more impressive.

Here's a Hype-Free VR Headset Sales Forecast: 7.4 Million in 2017 for a Total Install Base of 61.6 by 2020

I haven't heard much about consulting firm IDATE DigiWorld, but they just put out a hype-free forecast of VR headset sales [.pdf link here] that's much more plausible than the Greenlight report I recently snarked at, let alone the head-spinning hyperbole from IDC. Specifically, sales of 7.4 Million this year,  growing to a total install base of 61.6 by 2020. As report author Laurent Michaud puts it:

By the end of 2016, 3.9 million headsets will have been bought worldwide. For comparison, almost twice as many Xbox One units were sold in 2014, and three times more PS4 units in the same year. IDATE DigiWorld considers that the first generation of VR headsets will not be as successful as the hype would suggest. Overall, sales are likely to be lower than most observer estimates. The initial price for this technology is a key factor behind this caution.

Emphasis mine, because that bears emphasis: Even at 61.6 million, all the combined VR units won't be larger than the install base of the PS4.

Unlike the Greenlight forecast, by the way, the IDATE forecast doesn't count the many low-end VR devices targeting the China market which don't say much about the global ecosystem. I checked that with Michaud, who told me:

Beth Fukumoto, Rising US Political Star (& Level 70 Blood Elf Paladin) on the Real Life Lessons Learned by Playing MMOs

Hawaii State Rep. Beth Fukumoto recently attracted national attention when she was ousted in a dramatic face-off (above) from a GOP leadership role after she protested Trump's misogyny. Drawing just as much national attention, she's since started the process of changing her political affiliation to Democrat.

And notably for New World Notes, as she explained in a recent Reddit AMA, she's not only a hardcore MMO player with a level 70 Blood Elf Paladin in World of Warcraft, but studied MMOs for her Master's degree -- specifically, "the impacts of MMORPGs and other pop culture phenomenon on our national narratives":

"[O]ur American identity is rooted in finding new frontiers and progress (at best) or that we believe that somehow by conquering other people we make our identities stronger (at worst)," she explained. "I think MMOs are a new form of those same narratives."

Just as notable, she also touches on a point that I first heard MIT's Joi Ito discuss: The importance of MMOs for fostering and surfacing real world leadership skills and character. As she puts it:

"Be Creative -- Please!" Longtime Linden Lab Veteran Pleads With Company to Staunch Second Life's Revenue Loss With New Ideas

Vektor Linden testing Mono on the Beta Grid with SLer Opensource Obscure

Shawn "Vektor Linden" Kunkel is a longtime colleague who joined Linden Lab a couple years before I left the company to write my book on the birth of Second Life. Acting as Linden Lab's Server QA Lead for over five years, he's remained a dedicated supporter of Second Life, and recently, after reading reports that Second Life masterpieces were disappearing because their owners were no longer able to pay the company's monthly tier, posted a passionate plea for the company to be creative with its revenue model. 

"Second only to the years in my youth where I worked on the sea with my grandfather," he tells, "my time as an employee at Linden Lab were the most rewarding of my professional life. I had the great privilege of working for an extremely innovative, smart company. To round it all out, our Residents were bar none when it came to their enthusiasm and contribution to the incredible world that we built. So I write this message with love and deep respect to those at the Lab who are in a position to make decisions regarding the monetization of the platform."

His open letter and revenue suggestions after the break:

Got an Active & Popular Virtual World-Themed Flickr Account? Try This Experiment With Avatar Skin Tone & Report the Results

My experiment with avatars and race assisted by Mandy Smith last week provoked some interesting and passionate reactions, many from people angrily denying this "proved" widespread racism exists against non-white avatars. As I've said before, an unconscious bias is not necessarily the same thing as racism, especially because everyone, no matter what race, carries our own set of unexamined biases. As I also wrote, the 2 or 3 examples a cited are hardly enough to definitively prove anything.

That's why I'm asking for your help: If you have an active Flickr account, please try this experiment -- and carefully follow these steps below to minimize the possibility of biasing the results.

SL Flickr of the Week: Japanese Steampunk Adventures of a "Flightless Bird"

"飛べない鳥" is a Second Life user on Flickr whose Japanese name roughly translates to "flightless bird" -- but brother, she flies, oh yes she flies. Beautifully shot, composed, and detailed, her images run the gamut between SL fashion pics, traditional Japanese-themed imagery, and here (as below), what might be called Japanese steampunk from videogames that don't exist but you wish they would. Follow her for God's sake.

Who Really Thinks That 10-15 Million VR Headsets Will Be Sold This Year? UPDATE: Analyst Clarifies This is a Global Forecast Which Includes China

Greenlight Insights sure seems to think so:

Global virtual reality revenues will reach $7.17 billion by the end of this year, according to a new report by Greenlight Insights, which is also predicting that global VR revenues will total close to $75 billion by 2021. More than 65 percent of all VR revenues will come from headset sales this year, according to Greenlight.

Yet another hyper-bullish VR forecast seeking to beat us over the head with an impressive billion dollar+ figure. However, just do the quick back-of-envelope math, and $7.17 billion isn't all that impressive -- and perhaps not even attainable. 65% of that is $4.6 billion, and if you divide that by the average price of an HMD headset -- for the sake of argument, let's say $350, averaging the cost of low, mid-range, and end high-devices --  and you get 13 million devices total. So let's broaden that out and say Greenlight Industries forecast suggests 10-15 million headsets will be sold in 2017.

Which isn't all that much, and maybe not even obtainable:

Visit Now: A Magical Alice in Wonderland-Inspired Second Life Scene

FYI there is an utterly gorgeous Alice in Wonderland-inspired scene in Second Life that is up for the next few days, created by Cassie Middles and hosted on her land: Click here to visit.

That's her own photograph above, in the scene she's created. Her blog has all the credits for the items at play.

Cassie (who also created and sung in this mesmerizing video) has a video walkthrough of the site -- watch below:

Are Second Life's Avatar Defaults Unconsciously Biased for White Avatars?

Last week's post about apparent bias toward white avatars over darker ones attracted a lot of conversation, including this interesting point by reader JK Raven:

The major problem in the SL virtual reality isn't so much a preference for "Whiteness" but the fact that there are so few darker skin tones that look "realistic" or natural. They're usually flat in tone. That said, the avatar shapes also don't lend themselves to ethnicity either. They're designed to be thin, tall and mostly European in form. There are also very few hair creators that make ethnic hair very well. So, to get an amazing looking avi, many fall back on an average "white" European look. Why? Because it's the best way to guarantee a more aesthetically appealing look. If creators, designers and even LL's themselves would be more willing and able to produce more ethnic shapes, skins, hair....that didn't look so flat and lifeless, I am willing to bet there would be a market for it.

I hadn't quite thought of that before, but yes, the original default avatars of Second Life definitely had a Western/Euro-centric bias in terms of height and body/facial shape, in addition to the way skin tone is displayed. You can even see that in the current "starting" avatars (above), which all have a similar height and bodymass. The races tend to have some biologically insignificant but visually recognizable differences in terms of facial characteristics, which the SL avatar defaults don't capture very well.

None of this, of course, is to imply that Linden Lab is racist:

Watch Out Sansar & High Fidelity -- Minecraft to Add Marketplace & Virtual Currency for Third Party Developers

Watch out Sansar and High Fidelity -- you too, Space. I'm surprised Microsoft hasn't done this sooner, but now they finally are:

Set to go live in the spring, nine businesses will be selling feature packs within Minecraft -- such as new storylines, in-game activities or landscapes to explore -- with prices ranging between about $1 and $10 per creation. Other companies can apply to be allowed into the marketplace over subsequent months. Users wishing to purchase content will need to buy a form of new currency -- Minecraft Coins.

Given Minecraft's quirky LEGO-like graphics, it's more directly competitive from a consumer standpoint with Roblox and Linden Lab's Blocksworld, than high realistic virtual worlds like Sansar and High Fidelity, not to mention Second Life. However, from a third party developer perspective, Minecraft has a huge competitive edge above them all:

Do SL Users "Play"? Online Course from Top University Explores Question

Exploring Play: The Importance of Play in Everyday Life is an online course from the top-ranked University of Sheffield in the UK (there's a paid and free version of the course) which discusses Second Life for one of the courses, specifically citing this New World Notes classic in which early SL users recreated the 9/11 terrorism attack partly for cathartic reasons:

Top Five New World Notes Posts from Last Week!

• Avatar Skin Tone Experiment Reveals Strong User Preference For Whiteness
• Flux No More: Unable To Make Land Tier Payments, Another Second Life Masterpiece Disappears
• Second Life Annual Revenue Likely Down To Around $50 Million, Based On Land Tier Payment Estimates -- Was $100M/Year In 2009
• In VR Survey Of Virtual World Blog Readers, Over Half Of Women Report Intense Or Frequent Nausea From Using Virtual Reality
• "Library": Beautiful SL Machinima Tribute To Classic Literature

Avatar's Got Talent: High Fidelity Talent Show With $1000 Cash Prize

Do you think your avatar can dance (or do any other fantastic feat)? High Fidelity is sponsoring an avatar talent show, with a $1000 real dollar cash prize for the best contestant.

"Whoever can do the coolest three minute act on April 21, no restrictions, with the audience voting live for the winner there in-world," HiFi founder Philip Rosedale tells me. "If it's fun we'll do it recurring, with bigger prizes. Seems like a great thing to test and a good use of VR."

To help inspire some ideas for your act, High Fidelity's Thomas Schofield sent me the sample video above. Be sure to watch around :30 for some Batman-looking dude juggling.

Avatars Against Trump: Alfonso Belda's "Trump Legacy"

Dark contribution for a dark week from Alfonso Belda, who I believe is the first Avatars Against Trump contributor from outside the SL community. More please from more platforms!

More Avatars Against Trump pics here -- submit your own image or video here.

Why You Need to Follow Nevereux, Master of Surreal Second Life Images

I could blog just about every image by Ms. Nevereux, for nearly all are masterpieces of composition and beautiful strangeness, showcases of using Second Life to create genuine art. SL blogger Cajsa Lilliehook, who included Nevereux in a recent round-up of great SL pics, puts it to me best:"Neveraux's work is surreal, experimenting in many different forms, bursting with creativity."

In Sansar at Least We Know We Will Play VR Basketball

I can't find any references to it in the media or on social media, but at a recent VR conference, Linden Lab Bjorn Gustaf busted out this demo of a basketball game he created for Sansar. Which may suggest Sansar's physics are good enough for flying balls bouncing on the ground and against backboards, which would be quite something. Which further suggests Sansar users in heavy VR rigs bouncing on the ground and against walls, as they try to play.