Look Who's Talking: Second Life Voice Use On Track To Eclipse Total Skype Use

Here's a set of figures that need to be seen together, because they're extraordinary:

Total Skype Users, First 4.5 years:          276 Million (Source)
Total Skype Voice Use, First 4.5 years:    100 Billion Minutes (Source)

* * *

Total Number of Registered SL Users:       15 Million (Source)
Total Vivox-in-SL Voice Use, 1st year:       7 Billion Minutes (Source)
Total Vivox-in-SL Voice Use, 2nd year:      22 Billion Minutes (Source)

This comparison was first suggested by ex-Linden Lab CTO Cory Ondrejka, who notes, "Assuming a very tail-heavy curve consistent with [Skype's] growth, that's 40 billion minutes a year. So Second Life users are already generating nearly 50% of Skype's voice traffic."  But if in-world voice use continues growing exponentially into the next 2.5 years, it'll easily eclipse Skype's 100 billion minute record, and with a far, far smaller user base.  Of course, this is not an apples-to-apples deal for several reasons, but the fact remains that SL voice is competitive with the Internet's most popular VOIP software.  (And this is not even taking into account the number of SL Residents who prefer using Skype to communicate with each other, rather than Vivox.)

What does this mean for Second Life's future in relation to the broader Internet?  As it happens, when discussing that topic, I often compare SL to Skype.  Both are downloadable non-web applications, and while Skype hasn't replaced the web browser, it's still become an indispensable Internet utility.  The same thing might happen, I then suggest, with Second Life-- not supplanting the web, but becoming as important for immersive 3D interaction online as Skype is, for voice communication.

These figures, however, suggest another future, especially with the recent introduction of the SLim chat/voice client: What if Second Life went on to supplant Skype?

Comments

[Ann Otoole]

If voice was opt in instead of on by default I would be inclined to have more faith in those numbers.

As it is I only know of one person that uses SL Voice. I'm not alone.

[Sin Trenton]

I'm more intrigued by something in a similar vein to Ann's post.
Could there be TWO dimensions in SL? You know, metaphysicalwise or something?
Because I _read_ a lot about how much voice is used and how fundamental it is to the user experience.
Only I have never seen an actual single example of it in-world.

"You are now entering the Twilight Zone, voice-enabled."

[shadowtraveller]

Howdy to all. The adult 3d community of Jewel of Indra uses Skype. Residents are always pleased to have yet another way of communicating with others.

[Somatika]

There is a difference between being connected and using something. In skype the calls are always that, calls. Second Life you are connected to voice as a default but people may use it at most 1% of the time on average. This should be easy to see for anyone that has just joined Second Life. You are comparing apples to synthetic oil.

On a personal note, i actually talk to people with voice 2% of the time connected, and that is a high number!

SLim could change the dynamics of things a little bit, but the primary use would go to the Text Chat functionality of things, not voice.

[Persig Phaeton]

@Sin Trenton
That's odd, I'm only a very occasional visitor and I've witnessed voice sessions in random locations pretty much every time I've logged in.
While I'm on this subject:
I understand how people want to stick with text because it's what they know (hell, I still don't have a microphone myself) but it amazes me how tenaciously they oppose the very option to use voice chat if one should wish. It's progress, people. Learn to accept it. To those who do not, I recommend strictly watching only old silent movies on your film reel projector in the future. No more of these technicolor "talkies" on DVD for you, dig? While you're at it, no more cell phones or telephones. There's a perfectly good postal service and telegraph via radio for the more immediate communications. This way you'll never have to use your voice to communicate again. ;)
Personally, I'm glad LL introduced voice for the education and business users who need it and I'm glad to see it's so widely adopted already.

Persig

[Ari Blackthorne]

Oh no - but wait...

Hamlet, you are WRONG on all of this! Haven't you heard? Voice is a complete failure! No one in SL uses voice. In fact, the Lindens should abolish it - just remove it completely because it lags the system, causes too many to be ignored...ummm, can't be logged and...and... ummm... er...

I have proof in fact!
http://commonsensible.net/2008/07/03/second-life-blog-1-in-64-is-better-than-none/

[John Lopez]

I think the business community uses it more than the rest, but I have seen quite a bit of use in social settings these days... to the point it appears to be the default in many places.

I pretty much assume people will use voice these days and am rarely typed back at. Non-native speakers and a few "don't want to break the illusion of my avie" people still type, but that's about it.

[Hamlet Au]

Hah, Ari!

I'm on record being skeptical that voice was going to be broadly adopted, and I still want to know how exactly a "user minute" is defined. My strong guess is there's a LOT of person-to-person voice among social gamers who want to flirt, hook up, etc. (Plus the business and education use.)

[Eleanor Balbozar]

I know a few people who use voice a LOT, but they are not the majority of users that I know. Some people like voice because they aren't great typists or because they want to make sure of the gender of the person they are talking to :P Personally, I don't use voice much; only occasionally with friends that I know very well. It isn't because I am fighting progress, but because I don't want most people to know me that well.