Reviewing NWN's 2008 Predictions: 5 Out Of 10 Correct!
So exactly a year ago, NWN readers and I gathered together a list of predictions for 2008. From my perspective, we're batting about .500, though some points are up for debate.
What We Got Right:
- "Significant changes to community standards": Yes, that happened when the Lindens closed down unregulated banks in January of 2008.
- "Web pages on prim technology introduced": As reported in June 2008, they're not fully interactive web pages, but close enough.
- "A major competitor to SL emerges": Arguable, but I'll say yes: While I never saw Google's now defunct Lively as a direct competitor to Second Life, many in the market did. Michael Arrington of TechCrunch, when it was launched: "Well, this sucks for Second Life. Google is launching a new service today called Lively..." Ahem.
A couple direct hits, and our mistakes, hidden after the break:
- "Linden Lab allows 3rd party server sims to connect to the Grid": Indeed, LL and IBM announced that in April 2008.
- "Cross virtual world integration launched.": Indeed, in June 2008, at least between OpenSim and Second Life.
What We Got Wrong: No, Linden Lab didn't open source its server
architecture, and Traffic stats were not dropped. Far as I know,
there's no Jabber gateway into SL. The company wasn't purchased, and
as I just reported, twenty corporations in the Fortune 100 do not have
a presence in Second Life. It's more like 15 or so, if you refer to both the US and the Global Fortune 500.
This week I'll gather together more predictions for the end of 2009!
Well, hooo whee. I got two things right in '08 (Obama's victory being the other one).
I did feel vindicated when Lively launched. But then, when I saw that little dancing mascot-critter (looked like Festus Hagen's lovechild after he met a cute a gopher) I said to myself, as did a lot of potential Lively residents in academia, "well, this sure looks lame. I can just imagine showing THAT to my Dean."
If Blue Mars launches this year, it will prove a more formidable SL-alternative. It has a much larger world than Home, though no UGC is promised so far.
Posted by: Iggy O | Monday, January 05, 2009 at 03:11 PM
Some might argue that community standards changed in more than just what you cite. They would also accredit the Trademark Flap as a major change in the community standards, and for the worse -- specifically, that you must agree to the restrictive new Terms of Service before you can get in world, and that the relatively loose treatment we were allowed in use of Linden's trademarks has vanished.
Posted by: Harper Ganesvoort | Monday, January 05, 2009 at 05:42 PM
"Linden Lab didn't open source its server architecture" - actually they said in late 2007 that it wouldn't be in 2008, as I recall.
Posted by: Tateru Nino | Monday, January 05, 2009 at 07:52 PM
Re: Blue Mars. Private Beta opens 1st half 09 and public beta being touted for 2nd half 09. My informed opinion being, that launch won't happen till 1st Qtr 2010 when 9000 series cards, or equivalent, are more ubiquitous, as they are needed to run Cryengine 2. (notwithstanding minimum spec is an 8800)
Posted by: Connie Sec | Monday, January 05, 2009 at 09:57 PM
My new predictions.
1. Web page on a prim (For Real!)
2. In-world Sculpty Editor
3. Megaprims permitted (by Lindens 100%) and allowed to be created through normal editor.
4. New price model introduced for 3rd party OpenSim's wanting to connect to the main grid
5. Increase in mainland Tier price by 50% announced 2 weeks before price takes effect.
6. Mainland sims with monthly stories (not just themes) behind them spinning off mysteries, characters, products, and a separate blog: Mainland Stories
7. Statistics reporting introduced for private sims.
8. Transaction logs and other data available through web-services/SOAP/capabilities to allow automation of downloading through 3rd party applications.
9. me.secondlife.com - social media aspect of second life made available through website such as profiles, email, voice mail, comments, pictures, videos, etc. offering facebook and myspace applications.
10. Live previews of areas and events in second life without installing the client - web accessible.
Posted by: Dedric Mauriac | Tuesday, January 06, 2009 at 10:11 AM