Tuesday, July 02, 2013

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Survey: Will Second Life Still Be Around in 2023?

One more question before Second Life's 10 year anniversary fades in the past:

Answer "Other" if you think you must, and share comments in Comments!

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Seymore Steamweaver

Happy to see folks are mostly optimistic at this point in the survey.

Adeon Writer

I can't speak for it's popularity but seems a given to be it will still be around in SOME form. And by this I mean I include name changes, or focus changes... As long as there's not a content wipe, it's still SL as I'm conserved.

jo yardley

Yes I think so, but only if LL keeps up and keeps improving.
I would almost say that it depends on them jumping on the Oculus Rift bandwagon.

James Corachea

Yes but it may become a lot less widely used than it is now. Similar to newsgroups and IRC it'll be an erstwhile piece of the internet but have a small minority following by enthusiasts.

Daniel Voyager

Yes, I hope SL will be still around in 2023.

*smiles*

Han Held

I wrote "I don't know. if not, something like it will be around".

It could be around, but irrelevant ala' ActiveWorlds ...unless the tech used by people (in leiu of desktops) makes SL unsuable. If that's the case, then cloudparty will probably take the top spot that SL vacates.

RoxyRoller

If the rates aren't reduced it's going to turn into a ghost town. There are lots of other VR grids out there. Soon they will be technically competative and SL will have to change to stay competitive.

Wizard Gynoid

No. This technology is already outdated. Something else will take its place that will be very different. A paradigm shift is overdue.

Laurent Bechir

I don't know. Perhaps it will be replaced by what is preparing Philip Rosedal :

http://highfidelity.io

:)

savino

no i think not and secondlife is more busy with games fish and hunt games coins i think not no...

Ezra

I don't think Linden Lab will try to be the first software company ever to never have to release a version 2.

Second Life has so much technical debt that it takes 1-2 years for a significant feature to roll out. It has business problems like bleeding tens of sims a week that makes another 10 years unlikely.

The best way for Second Life to exist in 2023 is if it's successor is called Second Life also.

Arcadia Codesmith

I think it has the potential to keep going indefinitely. Whether that potential will be realized is an open question.

Iggy

This post really pushes familiar buttons, but 10 years is simply too far a horizon. When I bought my first PC in 1986, Cordata was a small company and I'd no reason to believe it would survive. It did not. When I got #2 in 1993, it was a Digital. No way in heck DEC would vanish...

As to this technology company and its product: Ezra, I'd argue that the name Second Life is toxic for many potential users, though it's largely forgotten outside the current user base. If you bring up the name to IT folks now, they roll their eyes. You have to tell Millennials what it is, then they give you a version of "ewwwwwww creepy."

Changing the name, as part of a major rebranding and marketing campgaign, should come right behind performance improvements and lowering tier.

That's why I don't think SL will be around in 2023, though LL may well be, and other virtual worlds too.

Wolf Baginski

I know people are talking about the Oculus Rift, but I am not sure that Linden Labs can produce a good UI. I could learn to touch-type, but I am not sure that a keyboard-centred interface can work well. Maybe it will have to be Voice and something else. A game controller is hardly new tech, but it's not something that Linden Labs seems to support. (Am I missing something?)

I have other reasons to doubt whether Linden Labs currently has the talent to design a UI for anything other than mouse and keyboard. And how long will it take an outside designer to learn enough about SL?

Ezra

@Iggy "I'd argue that the name Second Life is toxic for many potential users, though it's largely forgotten outside the current user base."

I remember late-90s when I first used to chat on the internet, my parents were convinced it couldn't be filled with anything 'cept pedophiles and rapists. Then companies like Yahoo and AOL came along and chat became normal.

I remember when Friendster came out and the name 'Friendster' implied a person had no friends. Then MySpace and Facebook came along and made social networks normal.

I remember MMOs like EverQuest were things some believed only recluse nerds that needed to get a life engaged in. Then World of Warcraft came along made MMOs normal.

Names like 'Second Life', 'EverQuest', 'Friendster', 'MySpace', 'Facebook' can all be read into oddly, and some people do read into them oddly when they're absent mass use, success, and consequently greater understanding.

Names don't matter. Mass adoption makes names insignificant. Even if a failed product or service is given a meaningless name people are going to treat it and anyone that uses it as a pariah. I bet for example your 'millenials' would sooner use Second Life than be caught with a Zune as their primary music device.

CronoCloud Creeggan

Iggy, Millenials may say things to appear to be "cool", or what they think you want them to say. Besides, Universities are "artificial environments" so the Millenials tech lifestyles at university may not reflect those they will have when they graduate.

Eurominuteman

This survey has a design flaw...

This survey's basic assumption is - Do you use platform A OR B - yet Convergence Culture asks the question - Do you use platforms A AND B.

New Paradigm > Convergence Culture
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151278039239201

Wagner James Au

The survey doesn't ask about usage per se, but whether SL will be around at all. I left it up to the reader to decide whether a vastly smaller userbase than now qualifies as "still around". Though indeed, SL could find its plug pulled entirely, that happens too.

General guideline: Try to post just one comment at a time. Multiple comments in a row is the equivalent of monopolizing a conversation. More:

http://nwn.blogs.com/nwn/2006/02/nwn_tips.html

Canary Beck

@Ezra, may I suggest you rewrite your comment as a poem? It's got some great potential... and if not, may I? :) Very insightful.

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