Second Life and High Fidelity founder Philip Rosedale stopped by New World Notes to offer his thoughts on market adoption of virtual reality headsets, and it's a comment worth highlighting on its own:
The adoption period for a widely-desired inexpensive technology (like smartphones) to reach saturation (1 billion+) seems to now be at about 7 years. So the ramp will be between now and about 2021.
In other words, extrapolating that into a forecast, 1 billion VR headset owners within 7 years. The first iPhone model hit the market in 2007, and sure enough, in 2014, we are well over 1 billion iOS/Android smartphone owners around the world. (There's half a billion in China alone.) Virtual reality headsets (or HMDs) are being developed to sell at retail from around $100-300, so much cheaper than most smartphones. And to judge by the general "Wow" factor, anyone who tries VR is very likely to desire it.
But does that mean VR ownersip will reach a billion users in 7 years? I have some thoughts there: