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Thursday, August 07, 2014

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Amanda Dallin

"Decent smartphones are now given away by carriers for free, and if early results are promising, I can see them offering VR HMDs for an equally good bargain."

I hope VR doesn't catch on like smartphones. The reason carriers can give away decent smartphones for free is because they expect to earn their money back over time with service. Most carriers require long term service contracts in exchange for the smartphone. I don't think this pricing model would be good or practical for VR.

joe

Naturally, "Potsie" Phil doesn't take into account that the Internet is getting SLOWER for everyone, that providers are making it MORE expensive to get a connection and generally conspiring to control the Internet.

Nor does he take into account that real wages in the real world are shrinking and that most people rent and therefore need to move often.

More importantly, his tech-gobblyd-gook is so transparently phoney, that nobody will buy it.

nuff said.

foreign exchange providers

What it does enable you to do is for you and your business to see how you really are being charged.

melponeme_k

Death to Videodrome, long live the new flesh! XD

2014

no

Arcadia Codesmith

The logrithmic scale of the y axis of that chart makes it very difficult to read accurately. Flatten it out to a linear scale and it's not nearly as impressive.

Live music IS a compelling use-case for immersive tech, but not necessarily VR. I could see live concerts incorporating 3D cameras to allow viewers to watch the show in from the front row (or backstage... or onstage), perhaps incorporating an interactive element to allow them to adjust their POV freely.

But that's not the SL paradigm of independent musicians puppeteering their avatars while sitting in the spare bedroom in their PJs. There's mass-market potential in convergence between SL-style performance and the idoru phenomenon, but I don't think that'll happen until we have significantly more cultural cross-pollination from Japan, Korea and other Eastern cultures.

I DO absolutely believe that immersive VR is coming and it's going to be huge. I just think it's going to be a more gradual adoption curve than Philip is projecting.

But golly, the eloquence of our snarky naysayers is sure compelling.

A.J.

Philip Rosedale has always been amazing when he drags out his crystal ball. Only a fool would doubt him.

After he correctly predicted the astounding success of Second Life, he abruptly departed for LoveMachine Inc., then back to Second Life to usher in worldwide domination for the company. Then he abruptly departed the virtual world for his mega-successful Coffee and Power. Now the pull of his devotion to virtual worlds has brought him home. Not really home, but more like a replacement for home. It's going to be HUGE! It always is.

If Philip says it... it's gotta be true.

Ciaran Laval

I agree with Arcadia with respect to VR coming and it's going to be huge, but adoption will have a more gradual curve than Philip envisages.

Broadband, like smartphones, had compelling use cases to aid its rapid growth. VR simply does not have that yet, it's going to be a much slower climb.

joe

@Arcadia

Anybody who uses the word "golly" in a comment is okay by me.

Arcadia Codesmith

* blink blink *

Ezra

Why's VR, a category of software, being compared to home appliances and other physical hardware? I think we mean HMDs.

As Arcadia points out, HMDs will have use cases outside of virtual reality. As a sports fan, I got excited about the future of the Rift when Zuckerberg mentioned possibilities like virtual attendance of football games. People like me already pay for premium sport channels and online streaming services for games that aren't local. If I could put on an Oculus Rift and my headphones and suddenly a 3D camera or whatever lets me see and hear games all around the world as if I were in the stands that'd be very compelling. At least it'd be a slightly more interesting value proposition of what I'm already paying for. And that's all it needs to be.

I'd bet on ideas like virtual attendance over virtual reality. Not to put the latter down given I'm very much engaged with it, but when we're talking about gaining the interest of and offering value to 1 billion people, I believe ideas like teens slipping on HMDs and getting the illusion of being 20 feet from One Direction will get us there much more likely than a virtual boy band no matter how great facial animation tracking gets.

So the success of HMDs has to be separated from the success of virtual reality. It's quite possible that virtual reality of Second Life's DNA will be as niche on the Oculus Rift as it has been on PCs. There's more than a billion PC users in the world but that doesn't mean much for present day VR.

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