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Thursday, January 28, 2016

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Amanda Dallin

Projections (wild a.. guesses) by organizations such as Goldman Sachs are often more about pushing investment into areas they want investments to go as about actual projections. It's trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Iggy

I trust these types of bankers so much. They were such guardians of the economy in 2008, when it nearly collapsed and sent us into Great Depression 2.0.

This sounds familiar: "they and the VR industry are apparently plunging forward on the highly shaky premise that this is not a problem, and their products are sure to succeed. "

Of course! I have a leftover portfolio of Countrywide Financial bundled subprime mortgages if anyone is interested. Can't fail.

zz bottom

Sadly i can assure you that if Gs wants, it will get, unless "America" will awake up!

Ezra

They mentioned AR as well as VR.

AR enhances surroundings, and because it's what Google and Microsoft are investing in (Magic Leap and HoloLens), the two largest operating system providers, it makes sense that "generic computing" can change drastically in the next 10 years.

For VR, I'm not sure what physical obstacle a VR headset brings that a pair of headphones hasn't come with for decades. If you need to be aware of your surroundings again, you just nudge the headset off your eyes like you've been nudging headphones off your ears to become un-deaf your whole life. This is far from a usability challenge.

Brookston Holiday

I think of all of the people I see on public transportation with earbuds in, and faces buried in phones, and can't help but think people are very comfortable being cut off from their environs.

Also, aren't Oculus and Valve both planing to have front facing cameras with the idea of being able to seamlessly reveal your surroundings along with AR?

Mark Y

I suspect that Goldman Sach's forecast starts with two assumptions: (1) We are due for a new platform every ~15 years, (2) VR/AR will be the new platform because there are no other compelling candidates. #1 is practically superstitious but #2 could turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy because of the VC bandwagon. Whatever the next platform will be, it won't make it out of the gate unless it's more useful, usable and delightful than the proceeding platforms, so that's on the developers. Maybe that challenge causes #1 to break down.

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