New World Notes

Did High Fidelity Already Win the VR Metaverse Race? (Comment of the Week)

I suggested Valve is already poised to become VR's metaverse last week, but reader Masami Kuramoto strongly argues otherwise:

High Fidelity's key advantages:

- It's open source, i.e. it will never be shut down/turned off (unlike Blue Mars and eventually SL).
- It's multi-platform (Windows, Linux, Mac).
- Its potential scale is unlimited because people like you and me can host domain servers. In fact there's one included in the client download: the "sandbox". Just launch it, load some content, pass the URL on to your friends, have them come over.
- It fully supports VR gear but does not require any. High Fidelity is on Steam too ( http://store.steampowered.com/app/390540/ ), but unlike Valve's platform it is accessible to all of Steam's 125 million users right now.

Frankly, the race of VR metaverse platforms is basically over. Rosedale comes in first, again.

And indeed, High Fidelity is on Steam. Masami makes a good case though I think it may mistake platform features per se with coming in first.

In 2016, Bitcoin Became Less Like Money, More Like a Ponzi Scheme (Comment of the Week)

Fascinating comment last week from Bitcoin insider Edmund Edgar, giving us background on my observation that 2016 looks like the year Bitcoin transactions peaked (see above). According to him, it's even worse than that:

So what's actually happened is that there's a cap in the protocol about how many transactions you can have per second (or to be technically precise, the size of the block containing those transactions), and we basically hit that cap at the end of 2015. Rather than just raising that cap the Bitcoin community had a huge factional religious parameter war, and it hasn't been raised in 2016, so the number of transactions hasn't changed.

Demand to send transactions still seems to be going up, so the cost of sending a transaction has been increasing. I think (although I'm not confident) the amount of value in each transaction has been tending to increase, so effectively low-value transactions are getting priced out, and it's being used for progressively higher ones.

I believe the transaction cap relates to blocking Bitcoin "gold farming" from behind China's Great Firewall. Anyway, argues Edgar, it's changed the underlying utility of Bitcoin:

Dane Zander Working With Linden Lab to Fully Restore Lost Gardens of Apollo in Second Life

Dane Zander was surprised to find out Dane Zander's Lost Gardens of Apollo had suddenly reappeared in Second Life after a five year absence, but fortunately Dane Zander (that's him above in SL and IRL) stopped by New World Notes to provide more context and clarification:

First of all, I have the very best relationship with Linden Labs, and always did. I always received exceptional service, be it for any matter, big or small. That is since 2004, since my first 512 square meter lot on the Mainland. I do not hold any grudges, nor do I feel badly treated in any way. On the contrary!
My reasons for shutting down the sim were personal, financial, but in no way whatsoever did it have anything to do with being treated poorly by Linden Lab. Please understand this.

He is saying this in response to some SLers suggesting otherwise -- and also said this, against criticisms that Linden Lab didn't seek his permission for restoring the Gardens:

Why Do Virtual World Companies Rarely Build Virtual Worlds? (Comment of the Week)

Good point from JohnC, looking at the latest from virtual world companies:

It always seems strange to me that companies that create virtual world platforms never seem to create actual virtual worlds. To me it is as if in real life you were to go to an estate agent to buy a house and you find just pictures of plots of land with a stack of bricks and some sacks of mortar standing in the middle of them. Even if the whole idea is that this virtual space is to become a place for people to express their own creativity, there must surly be some kind of show homes to demonstrate all the possibilities. And these show homes must be spectacular. Linden Lab never did this with Second Life, so even now people outside the walled garden still think that it is incapable of great looking graphics.

In fairness, Linden Lab has always had starter areas, but to his point, they've never been very extensive. And in recent years, Linden Lab has been expanding on the "world" aspect with full-fledged game experiences. And in the very early days (2003-2005), there was an attempt to make the Second Life mainland seem like a world, with a "Governor's" mansion, an official public auditorium, the free fire Outlands, a prim-spewing oil rig, and so on. But in my view, Linden Lab didn't devote enough consistent efforts to this project, then let go of their world-building duties too soon, leaving new users to wander, confused and frustrated, in a big empty.

Anyway, more on this theme from John, and how it applies to new virtual world platforms Sansar, High Fidelity, and "space":

Is "space" the Place? Readers Weigh Pros & Cons of New Virtual World from SL/OpenSim Veterans

Last week's post on "space", the new Unity 3D-based virtual world lead developed by Adam Frisby/Zauis, a pioneer of Second Life/OpenSim development, generated a lot of interest and visits to its homepage, not to mention a lot of conversation -- much more, surprisingly, than the new demo video of Sansar. Readers are mixed on how important it is. Weighing in skeptically (as he often does), JohnC says:

I think this demonstrates the huge problem that exists. This is a perfectly good attempt to create something to rival SL. But why on earth would any SL user transfer there in order to start all over again in a project that may or may not succeed; you just get the Blue Mars label thrown at you. Besides, you need to be able to use Unity to really make the best of this, and if you are that good with Unity, you could most likely have a go at the whole project yourself, or at least make a decent game without the unnecessary front end viewer.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with it, except it is competing in a market that already has perfectly good functioning tried and tested Virtual world, SL, plus a totally free version which uses exactly the same tools and viewer, Open Sim. SL users are the virtual world equivalent of hard core gamers in the outside world. You kind of need a few of them to get your world on it's feet. 

And this also illustrates why Sansar and Hi fidelity are pushing their products as VR headset platforms, because they know they cannot compete with SL on a none headset level. This is not a criticism, just a comment on the huge mountain anyone wishing to compete in the non-headset world, has to climb.

Mentioning Blue Mars makes me wince because, well you know, but it's a fair point. On the other side, Cindy Bolero, longtime SLer, makes a strong case for space:

Comment of the Week: Grandmother of Six Contrasts & Compares Second Life and OpenSim

Last week a post on Second Life subscriptions re-ignited a regularly occurring reader argument on the merits of SL versus OpenSimulator, its cheaper, open source spinoff. (Which for my money, seems a bit like still arguing whether Orkut is better than MySpace in 2016, but OK.) Into the breach rides Ms. Dykoda Desmoulins (pictured), who speaks from experience:

I am not going to get into an 'Opensim vs. SL' debate, but there are a few things I would like to address.

I have been in Second Life since October 2005. I've watched it grow from a primitive virtual world into what it is today. I am a fashionista to an extent. I spend a LOT of time shopping. I find a lot of enjoyment, and spend a lot of time decorating my house, however, I tend to shop at various well-known stores, rather than Gachas (though I've been known to do the latter occasionally). I absolutely LOVE Second Life because I can satisfy my desire for all of those things, and much more. SL offers me things that I simply can't get in OpenSim.

I am a RL grandmother (of 6, actually). I love spending time in a sandbox building. I rent regions on several OpenSim grids. I love to travel the Hypergrid, exploring what others create, what others have built. I love the fact that I'm not limited by various things in OpenSim such as the linkset limits, etc.

More from this metaverse exploring grandma:

Top Game Reviewer Rants at VR's "Privilege Goggles"

Happy Monday, everyone! Let's start off with salty and influential game reviewer Jim Sterling hilariously ranting and swearing like a sailor about all the problems inherent in VR -- or as he aptly calls them, "Privilege Goggles". He makes a really good point that virtual reality developers all too often design games and experiences for the "gimmick" of VR that aren't very entertaining in themselves -- rather than making interactive content that's inherently great and becomes even better in VR.

As I said, Sterling is one of the most popular hardcore game reviewers on YouTube, which again points to a deep skepticism coming from what's supposed to be virtual reality's primary target market. If anything, gamers have been burnt on new technology over and over again, and are an even more skeptical about hyperbole than the average consumer. They've already been convinced (as Sterling notes) that Wii-style motion controllers or the Kinect or 3D TV or whatever is The Future of Interactive Technology. But after you get excited and blow a couple thousand dollars on those promises, you tend to get cynical.

Or as Clara Seller put it on this virtual world/MMO blog:

"We have adapted to technology's pace by slowing its impact." - Comment of the Week

Steve Jobs reviewing top smartphones of 2006

Really interesting thought by Pussycat Catnap, commenting on how wrong 2006 virtual reality forecasts turned out to be:

What is actually more interesting is how LITTLE has changed since 2006. I think we're hitting a point where even as the technology changes speed up - we've managed to consume it into our cultures in a manner now that keeps it from effecting real change at a pace faster than we have evolved to be able to handle. We have adapted to its pace, by slowing its impact. 2026... the only thing different will probably be another half hour added onto my commute in traffic.

That first part seems exactly right. 2006, we had smartphones and spent a lot of time on social media (maybe more MySpace than Facebook, but still), and we're still doing that. What fundamentally new, categorical technology shift has reached a mass market level since then?

Sansar Teaser Pics Should Look Better Than Second Life, But Don't (Comment of the Week)

Reader JohnC performed a pretty brutal autopsy on the latest Sansar teaser image from Linden Lab (above) released late last week:

I honestly don't mean to keep dissing these images that keep appearing, but when you are developing something new such as Sansar, and when you act in a totally secretive way about the product, then anything you release deserves critical attention. There is absolutely nothing special about this image that would warrant it being released as special in some way, as far as I can see. If I were in Second Life right now I could go there and in an hour or so, maybe a lot less, I could come up with a shot that looked easily as good as this, if not better. In fact I could go take some shots in Arranmore that was featured in a post here the other day and get more atmospheric impressive shots than this.

JohnC goes on to propose the kind of teaser pics and videos he's hoping to see from Sansar:

How VRmania is Like 19th Century Railwaymania - Comment of the Week

Commenting on the US Army's expansion of the OpenSim virtual world platform, Graham Mills (who creates simulations of railways systems), makes a fascinating historical analogy to the current buzz over virtual reality:

Back in 1830 George Stephenson, a taciturn engineer from outside the establishment, built a railway from Liverpool to Manchester. It worked so well that it ignited a period of over-excited investment in what came to be called Railwaymania.

On the upside there was continuous refinement of engines and track and, based on the Liverpool & Manchester experience, guidance for others on the best way to operate a railway safely. On the downside, track was put down without a decent business case, there was duplication of effort, dubious business practice, massive waste of capital. It was definitively not the most efficient way to establish a railway network.

Moreover, initially it was only the wealthy who could afford to travel and the companies did their best to ensure that people would want to pay for a premium experience by making life miserable for those in second class carriages. Ultimately the government stepped in and forced the companies to run a decent service for the average worker.

Anyway, the one thing that outlasted George was standard gauge, the gap between the two rails. Arguably it wasn't optimal but the scale of adoption and need for interoperability between all these little railways ultimately won the day.

Fast forward 186 years and we have VRmania. Lots of small pieces of expensive kit and content, largely isolated in terms of their tech and support for different operating systems, massive duplication of effort, prospect of mergers/acquisitions/closures, standards as optional, premium content closely sequestered, failure to reach potential, disillusionment down the line.

The hardware is one thing (Oculus, Vive, Daydream, Sulon Q, HoloLens, Magic Leap...) but the software is another.

Let's change hats and imagine I'm an educator running a virtual lab. Maybe I bought a nice package that I use as a pre-class simulation. It uses a pipetting device to transfer liquid from one place to another. But times change and we now use a different device in-class not supported in the original package that can't be updated (maybe the vendor went bust and the sim is closed source). I can't change it for a device from another vendor because the objects and avatars don't play together. In reality fingers and thumbs are pretty much a standard (I appreciate that's not always a given) and liquids "know" how to flow under normal gravity.

The solution, he suggests, may lie not in Unity or other high-end premium platforms, but the one very few in VR think about lately: