New World Notes

Why Losing Second Life Sims is So Serious to SL's Future

When I argued yesterday that it's not good enough for Second Life to coast while it's core revenue base of private sims erodes, amazingly, many readers were skeptical, with some even arguing that it's a good thing SL keeps getting smaller. But Ener Hax has another way of looking at the problem, and maybe her perspective will convince some of those skeptics (though sadly, I'm not holding my breath):

Money quote: "If we assume a constant ratio of 54% full to 45% homesteads... that would mean that in November of 2008, Linden Lab was making $5.4 million a month versus today’s $4.1 million. A drop of $1.3 million a month."

SL Steampunk Sim Armada Breakaway Soon Going Away

Emily Orr has a plangent tribute to the Second Life steampunk sim Aramada Breakaway, which is soon going away from the SL grid. "All has been done to save it, but there is just too much empty land," announced the owner. However, he added: "There will be an end of Armada party on Saturday 26 from 7-9pm SLT and everyone is invited!" Click here to teleport there.

Here's Emily on what this loss means:

Lost World Closing Soon -- How to Stop Loss of Other Great SL Sims Remains Open Question

Click here to teleport to a beautiful sim called Lost World, which as Kara Trapdoor blogs, is about to be lost from the world of SL. "This is a huge loss for SL, photographers, and explorers, and well... everyone," she writes. "Truly one of the best and most loved sims I know of." The sim's owner has more on this Flickr page (from which comes the image above). At the beginning of this week, we discussed the idea of requiring Marketplace sellers to own land in SL -- a suggestion that most, I think, rejected. So remains the open question, to discuss this weekend in Comments below: Is there a way to help private sim owners better monetize their sims, or should we just accept this continued loss as inevitable?

On List of 75+ Great Second Life Sims from 2009, Nearly a Third Now Seem Gone

I just stumbled into this great 2009 blog post by an SL fashion designer listing over 75 "Beautiful Places in Second Life", but as I started to browse the listing, I realized a striking thing: a lot of these places are no longer showing up on Second Life's map. Some I definitely know to be gone, but in other cases, this could just mean they've moved to another sim, or that the map interface isn't working properly. (I checked both the web-based map and the in-world version.) In any case, sims like Lemondrops Forest (depicted above), are no longer showing up in search.

On a very rough tally, it looks like nearly a third are no longer in-world:

Sim Deathwatch: Empress and Hierophant, Another Landmark SL Sim, About to Close & Looking for a Buyer

The Empress and Hierophant sim, one of Second Life's most beautiful private islands, is now up for sale -- below retail price! -- by its owners, two artists who go by the avatar names Alchemy and Immortalis Cyannis, who will remove it from the grid if they can't find a buyer. I wrote about this starkly evocative place back in 2009, and it remains a milestone of great content creation in Second Life. The creators say they plan to remain in SL, but will focus on making and selling 3D items through their Alchemy Immortalis brand. Unlike Japan Chubu/Kansai, which recently went away, Empress and Hierophant comes with rental cottages, so it seems feasible that this island could sustain itself through SL renters who want a place on the blasted heath by the silvery sea. That's still a risky business, but I hope someone's willing to give it a try. Go here to check it out.

Two Beautiful, Longtime Sims Apparently Gone from Second Life - But How to Save Others?

Two acclaimed and long-standing Second Life sims, Japan Chubu and Japan Kansai, beautiful tributes to Japanese culture and history, are no longer displayed on the Second Life grid, apparently gone after the owner, Amiryu Hosoi, unsuccessfully attempted to raise funds to keep them in-world. Variations of these sims have existed in-world since at least 2006, and they've been blogged about frequently here on New World Notes (links below). If it's any consolation, Amiryu just launched a site for real life Japanese-themed housewares and gardening here.

I've contacted Hosoi and will update this post as warranted. But as it turns out (as I learned too late) she actually contacted me about the impending crisis a few months ago, in a message I regretfully missed during some crucial writing deadlines. However, even if I had received the message in time (and I get similar ones from fiscally-strapped sim owners quite frequently now), it would leave me with a difficult quandary:

What's the best way to save a financially ailing Second Life estate, when the world's underlying revenue structure is already changing?

Here's what I mean:

Second Life Private Estate Ownership Hits 4 Year Low

Private estate ownership in Second Life (still by far the largest source of SL-based revenue for Linden Lab) has hit a four year low, according to Tyche Shepherd, a professional data analyst who runs Grid Survey. Private estates, she recently Tweeted, are "lowest since 13th July 2008 when grid was still growing. Lower than bottom of post-OpenSpaces decline 4th April 2009." She's referring to the Openspace Rebellion which began in late 2008, when user protest over price hikes on limited-use private sims provoked a large decline in estate ownership. (Read more about it here.)

This is a new low in recent land ownership in Second Life, but it's not unexpected:

Linden Lab Losing Lots of Private Sim Revenue, But Don't Expect Linden Lab to Lower Tier Anytime Soon -- Here's Why

On Second Life's Subreddit group, users keep upvoting a blog called Gridology which points out that SL is losing a lot of private sims -- i.e. "1000 SIMS IN 11 WEEKS". (Taking these numbers from Metaverse Business' very useful chart depicted above.) From Gridology's perspective, this means Linden Lab should lower the company's monthly tier costs. However, as I've said before (but since it keeps coming up, bears repeating):

Linden Lab will very likely not lower tier any time soon. It's an utter non-starter.

Here's why:

SL Forecast to Lose 10% of World's Private Sims This Year

The latest Second Life economic report from Tyche Shepherd of Grid Survey suggests a grim future for private estates in SL -- since January 2012, the world has lost 1138 regions, from 23,857 to 22,719, for a 4.7% loss of the total private estate landmass. This trend will likely continue through 2012. "About a 10% loss feels right by the end of 2012," Tyche tells me, "somewhere between 2000 and 2300 based on the current trends." This would represent an 8% drop in private estate land revenue for Linden Lab, she estimates.

As we've discussed before, private land is Linden Lab's main revenue source in Second Life -- around 80% of the total, company spokesman Peter Gray told me last September. It's extremely probable that this trend of private land loss will continue, and therefore, unless this revenue is replaced by Premium subscriptions and other revenue, in the next few years, the company's profit margin will likely be in serious jeopardy.

Ms. Shepherd, who I profiled here, is in real life (she tells me) a senior statistician for a renowned multinational corporation, and her SL reports have been praised to me by top Linden Lab staffers past and present as being pretty much on the nose. So I do take her forecast as a deeply concerning sign. Which again inspires me to repeat the calls fellow Linden Lab alum along with me have recently made: Make bold and radical changes to Second Life to grow its userbase and revenue before it's too late.

After the break, read some excerpts from my conversation with Tyche, for more on this continued loss of land:

Want to Save Your Second Life Estate? Do What Desmond Did, and Offer Your Renters a Minecraft Server

Last month I mentioned that SL land baron Desmond Shang has a Minecraft server which he offers free to people who rent space on his steampunk-themed estate of Caledon, and here's an interesting follow-up: Minecraft is helping him keep his estate in Second Life thriving.

"I don't keep 'hard stats' on this yet," Shang acknowledges up front, noting it's just several dozen of his renters who play on his Minecraft server. "But it's quite clear already that some people are hanging onto their Caledon estate land, or have rented new land, simply because they want to support the Caledon Minecraft server experience.

"It's a modest boost," he adds, "nothing that is going to make or break an estate. It may ultimately save a Second Life region or two, but certainly not ten or 100." But the reason this works points to the problems with Second Life's land revenue model, and why people rent virtual land in the first place. And as SL sims continue to disappear due to heavy tier costs and natural attrition, his strategy is definitely worth considering. As Desmond puts it to me: