New World Notes

Survey: Will Ending Second Life Gachas Hugely Impact SL's Economy?

Now that we know that come month's end, gachas gotta get gone, please take this survey asking how their removal will impact the Second Life economy. While Linden Lab releases few economic/user stats to the public, we can track sim ownership and concurrency rates via third party data sites like Grid Survey. 

Hence the survey questions above.  Since SL gachas are extremely popular and lucrative, we may see the pang of their loss in a decrease of sims and concurrency.

... and then again, we may not. For instance, when Second Life casinos and other forms of explicit gambling were banned in 2007, many predicted it spelled the end of Second Life. But, as Grid Survey's Tyche Shepherd points out, that was not the case: 

This Virtual Weapons Manufacturer Creates Incredible Images Which Make Second Life Look Like an Anime Action Movie

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

It’s been three years since I featured the exciting stream by Eripom Moonwall. It makes sense she does action pictures, she’s a thirtysomething securities analyst from Tokyo who moonlights as a virtual gun manufacturer. I love the way she frames this simple picture, slightly off center and from below. It makes it so much more interesting. I chose this non-action shot to show how even in a static picture, Eripom can inject life. 

For a wild shot, click here:

Marvelous Photos of Second Life's Strange & Wonderful Flora and Fauna

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Zoota Manoota’s photos are extraordinary. I love “All the Children Are Scattered” with its gorgeous and intense blue to yellow gradient and how the texture overlay gives it the craquelure of an old painting. I love everything about this picture. The people look so serene with their eyes closed as they wait for the sun to which they can turn. 

For a beautiful underwater picture, click here:

Sannyのおすすめバーチャルワールドニュース : 2021年7月 Sanny Reports For Virtual Japan

Sanny Yoshikawa が、New World Notesのなかから、毎月おすすめのバーチャルワールドニュースを日本語で紹介しま
す。

Sanny Yoshikawa covers the monthly virtual world highlights from New World Notes for virtual Japan.

 

 

Metaverse Evangelists Typically Dismiss The Idea's Dystopian Origins

Technologist Anil Dash started an interesting Twitter thread recently about a Vice essay on the Metaverse's dystopian origins, something that's rarely mentioned amid the newfound buzz over the topic. It's actually a theme I raised in 2016 for this Wired article: 

There’s an eerie parallel to these Silicon Valley projects and the sci-fi novels that inspired them. Stephenson’s Metaverse thrives as the real world descends into misery---the US undone by crime and chaos, most of Asia ravaged by economic collapse. In Ready Player One, the 2011 bestseller that Steven Spielberg is adapting for film, the poor live in stacked trailer homes and spend most of their squalid lives logged into a metaverse called Oasis. Even as entrepreneurs... build actual metaverses of their own, the real world also faces a future shaped by economic uncertainty and global climate change.

In both novels, the strong implication is that the Metaverse is popular in the future because real life is too horrible to bear. I've brought this point up to several Metaverse developers, and they've consistently dismissed the connection; many of them have argued that the dystopian aspect is merely for the sake of telling an exciting story.

Michael Abrash, Chief Scientist at Oculus, had a typical reply to me when I raised the issue back then:

Today's SL Flickr Pick: Charmingly Absurd Images by Moi

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Moi’s photostream is full of charming pictures like this one that offer just a touch of the absurd such as this plane's homage to Leonardo da Vinci’s flying machine. Not to mention, the flying machine is piloted by a teddy bear. I can totally see a cat enjoying a ride on the wings. They love heights. I love how the plane fills the frame is on a slight diagonal. Her braid dives us the sense of movement. I want to be there with them. 

The next is a model of composition, click here:

Linden Lab to Ban Second Life-Based Gachas at the End of This Month; Vaki, the SL User/RL Lawyer Who Foresaw This Move, Explains Why

Late last month,  Vaki, a longtime Second Life user who is also a real life attorney that's represented several SL users on legal questions, told New World Notes to expect a crackdown on SL-based gachas:

"Realistically," as Vaki puts it to me, "the likely scenario — if there is ever a crackdown — is that pressure will be put on Linden Lab to get its platform cleaned up, and Linden Lab will then put pressure on creators, exactly like it did with 'skill-based games' (in-world gambling) five years ago."... In fact, Vaki adds, "I would suspect that there already is pressure, particularly as the US keeps talking about loot box legislation."

Vaki's forecast just came true, with Linden Lab announcing today that gachas would soon be banned from Second Life:

Due to a changing regulatory climate, we’ve had to make the difficult decision to sunset a very popular sales mechanism for content in Second Life.  It’s widely known as "gacha", and is defined by a chance-based outcome as a result of a payment. We know that creators plan their content releases far in advance and will need to re-tool their products, so to mitigate the impact to those affected, we are giving a 30-day grace period, until midnight SLT on August 31.  After that time, selling content via gacha machines will no longer be permitted in Second Life.  Enforcement won’t start until September 1; after that date an Abuse Report for “Gaming Policy Violation” will be the preferred method of reporting this content to Linden Lab.  

"I don't think Linden Lab's post was actually very good at explaining what people can't do," Vaki tells me today, after reading the announcement. "You're going to have a ton of people trying to find the boundaries of this decision..."

Fortunately, Vaki has a long thread on Plurk explaining more about the legal policies at play:

Making the Ideal Metaverse May Require a Breakthrough in Quantum Entanglement Theory (Comments of the Week)

Pictured: From a 2014 Philip Rosedale presentation, in which he describes High Fidelity's goal of achieving "mouth to ear" latency in 100 milliseconds

Excellent reader conversation on my analysis of the networking section of Matthew Ball's analysis. My take is that the unbreakable nature of the speed of light will always hold us back from our ideal vision of the Metaverse. Or as I put it, "When it comes to the metaverse, Einstein is the ultimate cockblocker."

Longtime metaverse evangelist Ian "Epredator" Hughes proposed a cheeky solution:

This speed of light latency problem has me pondering quantum entanglement and instant changes at infinite distances. 

Yes: Making the ultimate metaverse might require learning how to practically leverage quantum entanglement theory -- i.e. a breakthrough in quantum computing that's readily available for consumers. (Which, while I'm not an expert, seems decades away, if ever.)

Fortunately Epredator proposes some more practical solutions that could be implemented now:

Top 5 Posts Last Week Including: Quest 2's Install Base Reaches 5-6 Million, While Facebook's Metaverse Flounders

• Nanite For Unreal 5 May Be Key To Making The Metaverse -- VR, Not So Much
• My Take On Matthew Ball’s Metaverse Primer, Part 3: Networking, Streaming, And The Einstein Barrier
• SL Vs. RL: Nine More Photos Of Second Life Users With Their Avatars
• Oculus Quest 2 Install Base Likely Grows To 5-6 Million Total, Based On Facebook's Latest Earning Report
• Facebook Horizon Beset By Turnover, Lack Of Prioritization, Says Insider

SL Roleplay System Adds Jobs for Players Who Want to Make a Virtual Living as Barista, Tattoo Artist, Etc. -- Sim Owners Can Use It To “Hire” SLers!

Here’s a fun new feature to the Really Needy HUD roleplay system from The Really Useful Scripts Corner, a proud sponsoring media partner to New World Notes:

Jobs for avatars! (Watch above.)

If you’re a Really Needy player (or want to try it out), you can play with the job system on the Really Needy sim now: Click here to teleport.

“Rainy City in my sim is offering jobs like Barista, Bartender, Receptionist, and Tattoo Artist, as a start," creator Grace Ling explains. "Really Needy HUD users will get paid on the job with coins they can use to buy food in the city to replenish their Hunger and Thirst.” There’s even openings for janitors and garbage collectors.

Rainy City also has an “Adventure Hunt” quest where they can investigate the disappearance of a reporter -- join the Really Needy Roleplay group to get started: “Visitors will be equipped with an Experience version of the Really Needy HUD, as they go about exploring the city and talking to different Non-Player Characters powered by my chat-bot script to solve the mystery.”

Sim owners can use this system to turn their region into a fully functioning urban roleplay community:

Friday's Featured Fashion Blog: SL Free & Offers for Good Shopping Deals

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

SL Free & Offers is a group blog with fifteen contributors who have different styles of pictures and posts. I thought I would focus on Dee Floyd because her picture for her blog post “One Day I’ll Fly Away” caught my attention so completely. I swung between thinking this picture is beautiful or creepy and ended up thinking it is both. Of course, this is my phobia, things touching my eyes. But it is undeniably beautiful. I love the flowers, the tulle, and the tulle seeming to turn into butterflies. I just want it anywhere but in front of my eyes.

• Sarajula Eyepatch and Veil by Rozoregalia available at Uber Event (Ends August 22)

For proof swimwear need not be casual, click here:

SL Vs. RL: Nine More Photos Of Second Life Users With Their Avatars

"I was inspired by my real look," a Second Life user named "Rainhaindiamorena" tells me. In real life, she continues, "I'm a Brazilian singer. I live in Bahia. I tried to make the avatar with my style. black with braided hair Rainha. In Second Life I sing in different lands."

Her SL/RL photo is one of dozens now on Facebook with the tag #slvsrl, launched in Holger Gilruth's Facebook group for SLers, featuring pics of avatars alongside their real life owners.

See part one of my mixed reality profiles here. Displayed with their permission, here are ten more of my favorites, featuring the owners' explanation for their avatar's appearance:

Oculus Quest 2 Install Base Likely Grows to 5-6 Million Total, Based on Facebook's Latest Earning Report

Based on earning reports from Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, we were able to estimate that Oculus Quest 2's install base was around 3-4 million as of this April. Facebook announced its Q2 2021 earnings yesterday, so we can now update that figure based on this data:

Revenue from Facebook’s Other segment, including consumer hardware such as Oculus virtual reality headsets, totaled $497 million, up 36% and less than the $685.5 million StreetAccount consensus estimate.

If we reasonably assume that most of that $497 million was generated by sales of the $299 Quest 2, and do some simple thumbnail math, that translates into roughly 1.6 million units sold during April-June 2021. Bringing our estimate of Quest 2's install base to 5-6 million total.

And given the news earlier this week, we can be even more confident that this range is roughly accurate:

Today's Flickr Pick: Stylish & Intriguing Avatar Images from Evalyn Wunderlich

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Evalyn Wunderlich’s “EverDream” is a hauntingly beautiful picture. There are fantastical elements with the brilliant sun and parhelia at the same time as stars in the sky. Sun dogs happen when the sun is refracted by ice crystals in the atmosphere. Nonetheless, the avatar is slightly dressed with a beautiful sheer scarf blowing in the wind. The scarf is what caught my eye and the most intriguing element. I love it. 

In the next picture she uses a sheer scarf equally well, click here:

Facebook Horizon Beset By Turnover, Lack of Prioritization, Says Insider

With Mark Zuckerberg announcing that Facebook has plans to become a Metaverse company, regular readers might ask, "Wait, weren't they already building a Metaverse?"

I'm talking of course about Facebook Horizon, released in closed beta last September, optimized to run with the Oculus Quest 2 HMD that was also released about that time. However, it has since seemingly fallen below, well, the horizon.

A Facebook veteran with deep knowledge of Horizon tells me the project might be revived, but faces some corporate barriers inherent to the company:

"I think Facebook has the money and people to throw at the problem," as they put it to me, "but making 0-1 products as a large entity hasn't been one of Facebook's strong suits... it's been to acquire other products and integrate them into the Facebook ecosystem. With the average employee tenure being 2 years or so, and the need to expand teams at rapid rates, it's very difficult to make decisions and stick to a single vision because things are always changing."

Consequently, they go on, the Horizon team has been jumping haphazardly to the latest hot feature or platform:

Watch: The Teaser for Alter Ego is Here, and I Have Questions About FOX's Upcoming Avatars-Meet-Masked Singer Show

Back in May, a FOX producer was reaching out to members of the Second Life community (and presumably other virtual world communities) about Alter Ego, an upcoming avatars-meet-Masked Singer reality competition show. Now set to premiere on September 22nd, here's the teaser.

... and here's my questions about it:

Maka Orion Makes Metaverse Images Matched to Inspirational Quotes

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Maka Orion lives an adventurous Second Life. If “You Learn the Most When You’re On the Edge” is true, he’s got a Doctorate in SLiving. By putting this pic on the diagonal, he makes it so much more interesting. I like that the avatar is moving toward us rather than away. I think it increases our connection to the avatar and our hopes for his success. 

Oh, wow, he’s doing it again -- click here:

My Take On Matthew Ball’s Metaverse Primer, Part 3: Networking, Streaming, and the Einstein Barrier

Above: One of these pics is reality, the other is Microsoft Flight Simulator -- but which? 

I'm blogging Matthew Ball’s must-read, nine part metaverse primer this Summer; my take on Part 1 is here, and my coverage of Part 2 is here.

Part 3 of Matthew's Metaverse Primer, Networking and the Metaverse, touches on similar territory as the paper I wrote for Samsung Next last year,  but with a big difference. (More on that below.) This section explores all the networking technology needed to make highly immersive, highly multiplayer applications possible. As an example of that, Matthew touches on how Microsoft's Flight Simulator (current version) uses streaming to display a mirror world:

Microsoft Flight Simulator is the most realistic and expansive consumer simulation in history. It includes 2 trillion individually rendered trees, 1.5 billion buildings and nearly every road, mountain, city and airport globally… all of which look like the ‘real thing’, because they’re based on high-quality scans of the real thing. But to pull this off, Microsoft Flight Simulator requires over 2.5 petabytes of data — or 2,500,000 gigabytes... Microsoft Flight Simulator works by storing a core amount of data on your local device (which also runs the game, like any console game and unlike cloud-based game-streaming services like Stadia). But when users are online, Microsoft then streams immense volumes of data to the local player’s device on an as-needed basis.

This becomes even more complicated when other users, not to mention new content they create, are part of your virtual world. But while broadband penetration and bandwidth speeds continue to increase, any multi-user Metaverse worth the name will run up against the simple fact that our broadband can't ever run faster than the speed of light:

[W]hile the Metaverse isn’t a fast-twitch AAA game, its social nature and desired importance means it will require low latency. Slight facial movements are incredibly important to human conversation — and we’re incredibly sensitive to slight mistakes and synchronization issues (hence the uncanny valley problem in CGI)...

Unfortunately, latency is the hardest and slowest to fix of all network attributes. Part of the issue stems from, as mentioned above, how few services and applications need ultra-low latency delivery. This constrains the business case for any network operator or latency-focused content-delivery network (CDN) — and the business case here is already challenged and in contention with the fundamental laws of physics.

At 11,000–12,500km, it takes light 40–45ms to travel from NYC to Tokyo or Mumbai. This meets all low-latency thresholds. Yet while most of the internet backbone is fiber optics, fiber-optic cable falls ~30% short of the speed of light as it’s rarely in a vacuum (+ loss is typically 3.5 dB/km)... Furthermore, network congestion can result in traffic being routed even less directly in order to ensure reliable and continuous delivery, rather than minimizing latency. This is why average latency from NYC to Tokyo is over 3× the time it takes light to travel between the two cities, and 4–5× from NYC to Mumbai.

Emphasis mine. Or to put it another way: The metaverse of our dreams will always be hobbled by the speed of light.

In fact, the way Matthew lays out all the bandwidth and latency hurdles facing metaverse applications leaves me significantly less confident than I was while writing the Samsung Next article. Which takes me to my own thoughts on Part 3:

Quest 2's Install Base Confirmed as "About 4 Million" Due to Face Rash Recall - UPDATE: 4M May Refer Only to US-Based Quest 2s

Update, 7:18pm PT: While a Facebook spokesperson says this recall impacts Quest 2 owners "globally", it's unclear if "about 4 million" refers to the total install base worldwide, or just US-based owners. In a discussion on this post among VR developers (ironically on Facebook), Adam Frisby estimates the total Quest 2 install base worldwide to be around 5 million.

Last April many VR enthusiasts were seriously skeptical when I estimated that Facebook had sold about 3-4 million Quest 2 sets (extrapolating from Facebook's extremely coy revenue reports). Today we have official confirmation that this install range estimate is accurate, due to the most hilariously ironic turn of events --Facebook gave people a face rash:

Facebook says it is “participating in a voluntary recall of the Quest 2 removable facial interface in coordination with the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC).” The CPSC said about “4 million” facial interfaces are affected by the recall, plus 172,600 in Canada, sold between October 2020 and July 2021 — the interfaces come with each headset sold as well as sold separately for $20 or for $40 as part of a Fit Pack...

[A Facebook spokesperson said:] "That is why we started our voluntary facial interface replacement program in December, and are now rolling out the silicone cover for all Quest 2 and Quest 2 Fit Kit owners globally.”

Well, not so hilarious if you're one of the Quest 2 owners now with dealing with a face rash. (Pro-tip: Target has a good deal on hydrocortisone cream.)

4 million is relatively good install base for a VR product only on the market since late last year -- but is still far from Zuckerberg's 10 million install base goal. (Which is still many tens of millions less than the install base for current video game consoles, but leave that go for now.)

Now that we know this, perhaps Facebook will be more open about their Quest sales in future shareholder reports.

Perfectly Composed Virtual World Landscapes & Seascapes by Zanya

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Zanya’s photostream is full of extraordinary landscapes and seascapes such as this gorgeous image, “Fly On.” She has a fascination with birds and they often sneak into her pictures. Or, as in this picture, they become the focus of the picture, as shown by its placement at the intersection of two diagonal lines that are drawn 45 degrees from each right corner. (See thumbnail pic I've annotated here.) As a result, her picture is beautiful and the composition is exquisite. 

For something more surreal, click here:

Nanite for Unreal 5 May Be Key to Making the Metaverse -- VR, Not So Much

Great comment from reader "Kyz", reflecting on my analysis of Matthew Ball's metaverse primer thus far:

Our limitations are graphics cards and computing power, size of screens and types of display screens. I'm excited about Unreal Engine 5 with Nanite, which helps us down the road of being able to render more rich environments without the cost of so many draw calls, as well as world partitioning for larger worlds, etc.

Watch above to share Kyz's excitement! However, Kyz also adds, in a possible demur to Matthew, VR should not be the metaverse's focus:

Facebook Moving Oculus to Support Industry Standard OpenXR

I usually blog any Facebook/Oculus news with this irresistible pic of Zuckerberg striding like a dictator through the opiated masses in VR, but I'll give him some credit in this case:

Top Posts Last Week: Blogging Ball's Metaverse Primer, Questioning Facebook's Metaverse Ambitions, and Profiling Avatars & Their IRL Owners

• Watch: LANG Episode 1/Season 3, Noir Comedy Series Shot Entirely In Second Life, Premieres Here!
• SL Vs. RL: Ten Photos Of Second Life Users With Their Avatars
• Zuckerberg Wants To Rebrand Facebook As "A Metaverse Company" - But His Fixation On Real Life Identities Will Be One Of Many Barriers To Success
• Avakin Life: Another Mobile Metaverse That Gained Millions Of Users When You Weren't Looking
• My Take On Matthew Ball’s Metaverse Primer, Part 2: Hardware, Mirror Worlds, And Mainstream Adoption
• Is Linden Lab Making An IMVU-Like "Second Life Lite" For Mobile?

Tomorrow: Whiskey Monday Premieres a New Mixed Reality Art Series, Plus Her Series Turning Tweets Into Second Life Images!

Click here at 1pm SLT tomorrow (Saturday July 24) for a special event in the G.B.T.H. gallery featuring acclaimed SL-based artist Whiskey Monday. Whiskey herself will be there to help unveil a new series of her works with a cool mixed reality twist -- alongside a classic series with a cross-platform hook.

For the "In Other Wor(L)ds" show, Whiskey tells me, "I decided to show a series of images along with their direct inspiration: scanned pages from my RL journals. The visitor can see the SL image (In Other Worlds) in the traditional art-on-the-wall gallery showing, but if you click and hold on the image, an overlay of my RL journal (In Other Words) appears.

"These are small notebooks I've carried around with me for years, where I jot down ideas, thoughts, quotes, words and phrases - just text that I want to refer back to later. It feels both empowering and very vulnerable to show them. But I feel like showing the journal pages with the SL images they inspired helps to give more context. It gives the images just a bit more fullness. I'm really excited by the final form of the show. I'm proud of it."

Looks marvelous. G.B.T.H. is also showing all 40 images from her classic "My Tweets as Pictures" series, which as the title suggests, are Second Life images she created based on tweets she made. Here's one, a smashingly retro image matched to her Dorothy Parker-esque wit:

Watch: LANG Episode 1/Season 3, Noir Comedy Series Shot Entirely in Second Life, Premieres Here!

After a long wait, it's here! And exclusive to New World Notes: Presenting Episode 1, Season 3 of LANG, a noir comedy machinima series made entirely in Second Life, which I'm thrilled to premiere. (Watch above.)

If you haven't seen Season 1 and Season 2, however, binge-watch them here first, as the story is pretty complicated. Here's a very brief elevator pitch of Season 3 from lead LANG creator Zatch Ixchel:

"Without spoiling previous seasons - LANG is about two private investigators in a city that doesn’t want them. This season, in particular, is one about parenthood -- fatherhood, specifically. Betrayal, lost love, and revenge are other themes we explore this time around."

There's a seriously cool shot around 9:20 that was more challenging to create then it might seem -- here's how they did it (spoilers ahead):