New World Notes

Watch: I Talk Marketing in Roblox, Grassroots Creators, and the Metaverse vs. AI at GamesBeat 2023's Metaverse Forum

Here's my Metaverse Forum appearance broadcast at GamesBeat 2023 last week, along with Chris Brandt, CMO of Chipotle (creator of this burrito-making game in Roblox), Roblox VP Nick Tornow, with Shuchi Rana moderating. Topics include: 

• What got each of you interested in the Metaverse?
• There are many definitions & many tiers of the Metaverse, what does it mean for each one of you?
• What are some of the foundational elements/building blocks that people should be thinking about when it comes to the metaverse?
• To anyone who thinks AI has taken over the conversation, how would you defend the Metaverse?
• Who do you think will play a key role in defining & building the metaverse?

Featuring (around 23 minutes in) a mention of Blueberry, which first started in Second Life before going multi-metaverse platform, and LA Gurlz, a top creator in Roblox who's featured in my next book.

Reality Check: Metaverse Platforms Still More Used Than ChatGPT

Important Pew Research report on ChatGPT popped up right before the Memorial Day weekend:

Overall, 18% of U.S. adults have heard a lot about ChatGPT, while 39% have heard a little and 42% have heard nothing at all....

However, few U.S. adults have themselves used ChatGPT for any purpose. Just 14% of all U.S. adults say they have used it for entertainment, to learn something new, or for their work. This lack of uptake is in line with a Pew Research Center survey from 2021 that found that Americans were more likely to express concerns than excitement about increased use of artificial intelligence in daily life.

Emphasis mine. 14% of US adults translates to about 36 million adults who have actually used ChatGPT. That tracks with OpenAI's report of 100 million monthly active users overall a few months ago, and SimilarWeb's data suggesting that the strong majority of ChatGPT usage is from outside the US.

That's quite impressive growth in such a short time! Then again, I strongly suspect that's the ceiling of ChatGPT's user growth (at least in its current version) since it doesn't have an obvious networking effect hook like social media. We join TikTok or another social platform not just because it contains interesting content, but also because we want to share content with our friends who are also on it. 

By contrast, all the people who are probably curious about ChatGPT have already used it, but there's no particular inherent motive for everyone else to do so. (Yes, most everyone will probably use some version of ChatGPT and other LLMs in a search engine like Bing or other existing use case, but that's indirect usage.) If that's the case, I would not be surprised if we start seeing consumer-level ChatGPT usage level off as its novelty factor fades. 

In any case, it's still true that that the top popular metaverse platforms still have a much larger user base than ChatGPT:

Today's SL Flickr Pick: Dramatic Roleplay Shots by Adachi Yasumori

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Adachi Yasumori’s “I Will Find You” is a fabulous picture. The avatar does have that implacable mood of the title, the intrepid hero pacing himself, not scrambling through the sheep, but moving with a slow, determined pace that will outlast any galloping hunter. Or is he the hero? He could be the bad guy chasing down the good guys. 

For more pics, click here:

Top 4 Metaverse Posts Including Notes on Apple's Upcoming XR Announcement, VRChat's Belated Creator Economy & OpenAI's Ambiguous Stance on Creating Adult Content With ChatGPT

• Is VRChat Already Too Late To Roll Out Its Creator Economy?
• A Second Life Memorial To George Floyd's Murder -- And A Plea Not To "Move On" From It
• What UploadVR's Ian Hamilton Will Watch For At Apple's XR Reveal At Next WWDC -- And What I Fear
• Does OpenAI Actually Prohibit ChatGPT-Powered Sexbot Avatars In The Metaverse?

Second Life Fashion Friday: Witty Style Ideas from Jordan Whitt

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Whitt-icisms is a cleverly named blog by Jordan Whitt. Her post Beauty Is an Attitude gives us another play on words with a literal knife-edge eyeliner application. Of course, there is a knife-edge brush for eyeliner and shadow, though not one so literal as this. This picture just made me laugh because it was such a clever witticism, or should I say Whitt-icism. 

• Top - Petal Lace Top from Coco (group gift)
• Hair - Muse from Truth
• Skin - Jasmine Skin from Belleza
• Eye Liner - Black Liners from Belleza
• Pose - Sharp from PiXit (Sabbath Event) ends June 11th
• Backdrop - Masculine Bathroom Backdrop from Synnergy Tavis

For more wit by Whitt, click:

Is VRChat Already Too Late to Roll Out Its Creator Economy?

VRChat recently announced in-world monetization options for creators, and I've been wondering since then whether it's too little, too late. The founders' extreme caution around a creator economy is totally understandable, but the virtual world already has about 4-6 million monthly active users (by my estimate), making its population about the size of Los Angeles. And there are easily 1000+ VRChat creators already monetizing on third party sites like Patreon, YouTube, Gumroad, and so on.

The other challenge: VRChat is primarily played on Steam and through the Quest, both of which take a 30% cut. As compared, for example, to Patreon, which only takes a 5-12% commission; top YouTubers usually get into direct sponsorship deals, and pay YouTube zero percent in commissions. So creators already established on those platforms have more incentive to encourage fans to support them that way, and not through in-app payments.

All that said, I reached out to some top VRChat creators for their take on monetization:

Reimajo, who created the imperssive Roller Coaster Tycoon-type sim in VRChat (watch below), actually thinks it could be a better option than Patreon:

A Second Life Memorial to George Floyd's Murder -- And a Plea Not to "Move On" From It

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

On this day, just three years ago, George Floyd was murdered and the clarion call of “Black Lives Matter” that began with Trayvon Martin’s murder spread far and wide. It even looked like there was a sea change happening. Sadly a lot of the energy behind that has since been dissipated.

Jupiter Firelyte's picture above, “Say Their Names”, could be interpreted as capturing that “moving on” sense. The avatar is walking past a mural of murdered Black people without pausing in much the same way most of us move on, because it’s not an existential threat to us. She posted it in September 2020, when politicians were afraid to speak in favor of police reform and we decided silently, one by one, that order was more important than law. 

For a tribute to the Black Lives Matter protests, click here:

What UploadVR's Ian Hamilton Will Watch for at Apple's XR Reveal at Next WWDC -- And What I Fear

https://t.co/TVYLxiTQTZ pic.twitter.com/KcbXk2fmu9

— Ian Hamilton (@hmltn) May 23, 2023

Apple is widely expected to finally reveal its long-awaited, much-rumored XR headset at this year's Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, starting this June 5 -- even moreso because for the first time, Ian Hamilton, long time XR industry reporter at UploadVR (and .gif mood master), was invited to attend. (Road to VR was also invited.) 

Here's what Ian will be looking for from Apple, when he's among the gathered reporters:

"If they mention the price I’ll be curious what the reaction will be in the audience," as he puts it to me, "and how Apple talks about its commitment to plans for the future."

He contrasts that with the reaction among the crowd at Oculus Connect, when the Quest MSRP was revealed. "Developers in the audience cheered when they heard $399 for Quest. Apple will probably need to wow that audience with something other than price."

And yes, Ian has also heard the frequent rumors that Apple's XR headset will have a starting (and gut- punching) price of $3000, but he's still waiting to see if that's actually the case: "It’s just one of those things where I’ll truly believe it when it’s stated by Apple publicly."

The other rumored feature is around XR avatars for Apple's platform: "If they show human-like avatars I’ll be extremely curious whether it’s a live demo or pre-recorded, and whether those avatars get out of the Uncanny Valley."

Because according to other frequently reported rumors, Apple is developing those too:

One of the headset's marquee features is said to be lifelike avatars that have accurate facial features captured by the included cameras. Each eye will be tracked by at least one camera, letting the headset accurately show the user's gaze on an avatar. With precise eye-tracking, the headset will be able to perform foveated rendering to conserve power by only rendering imagery in full resolution directly where the user is looking.

I share Ian's curiosity, because hyperreal human avatars would be a really, really bad idea, especially if there's no other option for consumers but them. Not only is there no proven market for photorealistic human avatars, they provably unleash a number of unintended negative consequences. As avatar expert Nick Yee explained to me for the book:

 

Today's SL Flickr Pick: Moody Metaverse Images from Lunaspina

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Lunaspina’s stream is a whole mood and that mood is melancholy. The fog-shrouded building with the shadow of a lone person feels cold and lonely. She amplified the melancholic mood by adding a texture layer that created a sooty feeling to the entire scene. Her picture reminded me of Christine L. Corton’s London Fog: A Biography in which she tells how the ancestral fog that so thoroughly inhabited the city for centuries before dissipating in our more environmentally-conscious time. 

For more melancholy metaverse pics, click here:

Does OpenAI Actually Prohibit ChatGPT-Powered Sexbot Avatars in the Metaverse?

One point raised by readers of my story about the inevitable arrival of ChatGPT-powered sexbot avatars in Second Life: Is this even allowed by the service's owner, OpenAI?

Stone Johnson, creator of the Uma bot that I interviewed, answers the question this way:

I should say that there is no violation of Terms of Service because this is solely roleplay without any intent or occurrence of real sexual activity. It is strictly metaverse roleplay, in regions of Second Life classified Adult.

Furthermore, the discussions are non-erotic and it is only the additional AI components of my separate code systems, and the visual and role play contexts that might be construed as being erotic. [As has been noted], there is active and strong filtering of Adult content in GPT 3.5-Turbo.

In other words, the sex bots' "minds" are powered by ChatGPT, but ChatGPT itself doesn't power the bots' sexual/physical/proprioceptive features. (Which suggests a fascinating if kinky new twist to Descartes' mind-body problem.)

In any case, OpenAI's Terms of Use displayed here actually don't mention anything that prohibits sexual content per se:

Today's SL Flickr Pick: Perfectly Composed, Story-Rich Screenshots by Kiva

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Kiva’s picture “Driving Home” caught my eye because it is deliriously hilarious. It made me take a double-take and then crack up. It’s just so insouciant and joyful. It sort of reminds me of the aftermath of a windstorm that broke away part of a small island on the lake where I grew up. There was a tree on the part that broke off and it went bobbing along from the east to the West side of the lake where it finally beached. 

For more great pics, click here:

Join Me for GamesBeat's Online Metaverse Forum This Wednesday -- Free Registration Still Open!

Register for free here to attend my virtual talk at GamesBeat 2023 this Wednesday (May 24) at 1:00 PM PT, where I'll be part of The Metaverse Forum panel:

As the concept of gaming, immersive worlds, and the metaverse continue to evolve, it's becoming increasingly clear that there are a number of significant challenges that need to be addressed if this vision is to become a reality. In this panel, experts from across the industry will come together to discuss these challenges and explore potential solutions.

What Blogs Should I Add to My SL/Metaverse News & Culture Blogroll?

I'm starting to build a metaverse blog roll/ad swap (mid-right column), featuring blogs which cover Second Life and the broader ecosystem of metaverse news and culture -- beginning with Gorgeous Aurelia's long-running JuicyBomb. Along with some smashing style pics, Gogo recently wrote about Linden Lab's curious fake casino project and ways to use generative AI programs like Midjourney and Stable Diffusion with Second Life content.

If you want to add your own SL/metaverse blog to my roll, get in touch with me:

Top 5 Posts, Including: How the Future of Generative AI & and the Metaverse Are Tied Together & Speaking of Which, Here's the Inevitable ChatGPT-Powered Avatar Sex Bot

Above: Chatting with a ChatGPT-powered NPC in a metaverse platform

• Here Come The Metaverse's ChatGPT-Powered Avatar Sex Bots -- Whether Humanity Is Ready Or Not
• VRChat Finally Announces Creator Economy In Very Cautious Closed Beta
• The Future Of Generative AI & The Metaverse Are Inextricably Linked
• WATCH: Sims/Second Life Dev Rod Humble Unveils Features In Life By You, His Ambitious, Upcoming Simulation Sandbox Game
• New Apple VR Rumors Ignore Small Sales & Insiders Hesitant About VR

SL Fashion Friday: Fantasy-Flecked Styles from Kanatan Abramovic

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Le Soleil is a fashion blog highlighting Kanatan Abramovic’s style and photos. “Don’t look away” is her most recent post and features the ever-popular lingerie ensemble, but this one really made it hard to look away with the fantastical combination of angel wings, bunny ears, and elven ears. I also love, love, love those lace gloves. 

• Lingerie: Violent Seduction - Cardia (FATPACK) at Equal10 Closes June 5th
• Hair: [monso] Eve Hair at ☑ Kustom9 Closes June 10th
• Ear: EVERMORE - PEEKABUN (BUNNY EARS) -
• Gloves: Emotional Circus -  Lucy Gloves -  BOM & Demonic
• Wings: Blueberry - FLF - Valentines - Wings Pack
• Set Design
• Pillar: DISORDERLY. / Old Columnist / Plain / FATPACK
• Pillar: DISORDERLY. / Old Columnist / Vined / FATPACK
• Ruins: ~ xantes ~ Secret Garden - Ruins 02
• Feather: boxed) {anc} feather chips {colorful}FATPACK

For more of her great styling, click here:

Here Come the Metaverse's ChatGPT-Powered Avatar Sex Bots -- Whether Humanity is Ready or Not

The future of sexuality in the Metaverse is waiting for me on a steel platform in the sky, but unexpectedly turns out to be shy. Meet Uma Johnson, a slinky blonde avatar in a body-hugging outfit, who may be the first Second Life bot connected to ChatGPT designed for virtual sex, but certainly won’t be the last.

“How does the pixel sex stuff happen?” I query creator Stone Johnson, after my brief chat with Uma. “I asked her and she said she didn’t know.” (See some of our chat above.)

“You should have just asked her --” says Stone, then suggests a sexual act that a man inclined to have relations with a submissive sex bot is likely to request. “It's possible she might be less forthcoming with you than with me as I am set as her Master.”

“What happens when someone asks her?”

“Well, she'll assume the position. And being animesh, she can be sat upon. She's basically a piece of sex furniture!”

Well OK then. If you have your Adult settings enabled, here Uma is in the Second Life Marketplace. 

While other ChatGPT-powered avatar bots exist, Stone’s bots are the first that I know of to tap into the inevitable desire for virtual simulation. Powered with GPT 3.5 Turbo, Stone tells me they do more than just chat, and come with “feedback of touch, proprioception, ‘vision’ and more.” 

In real life, Stone tells me he’s a scientist in applied physics -- knowledge which he applies in his metaverse creations: 

VRChat Finally Announces Creator Economy in Very Cautious Closed Beta

After 9 years of operation, VRChat is finally -- and very carefully -- rolling out its user creator economy:

First, when we say Closed Beta, we really mean it – we only intend on inviting in 10 - 20 creators at first. Up until now, we’ve been testing these systems internally, but before releasing them to the public (even in a beta format) we want to make sure that they both actually work and that creators find them easy to use. That first point can’t be stressed enough! We have to make sure that this system is solid at launch, as people will be putting their real, actual money into it.

As I've written before, there's likely over 1000 VRChat creators who are earning an income from external sources like Patreon and YouTube. So this is a much-demanded feature. It also puts VRChat much more in line with being a full-fledged metaverse platform.

I'm not surprised that VRChat is only announcing this now. In my upcoming book, the founders Graham Gaylor and Jesse Joudrey told me how concerned they are about getting this feature right:

 

Today's Second Life Flickr Pick: Deep-Fried Style Photos from Karaage

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Karaage | からあげ is not for you if you suffer from acrophobia. This is not her only death-defying scene high up where only superheroes who can fly or swing on spiderwebs should go. Her feet are half off that ledge. The pavement is far below and made of concrete, not goose feathers. To say my stomach flipped over is not an exaggeration. It’s called “Sparkle Train” after this music video. To listen to Sparkle Train, click here. 

For more derring-do, click here:

The Future of Generative AI & the Metaverse are Inextricably Linked

Above: Chatting with a ChatGPT-powered NPC in a metaverse platform

The producer of a major financial news program recently asked me a mind-boggling question:

Meta and others ditching the metaverse for AI, is that the real future?

Which is, wow. Asking if AI and not the Metaverse is the future is a bit like asking, fifteen years ago, if 3D graphics engines and not smartphone apps is the real future. Because, well: They're both part of the real future, and the former is going to greatly enhance the latter.

 

I see this false dichotomy everywhere, and it points to a broader misunderstanding of both categories. Mostly it's a negative externality pumped into the air by the hype industry. The kind of Silicon Valley evangelists and marketers who are currently buzzing effusively about generative AI (without really understanding its profound technical limitations) are almost exactly the very same people previously buzzing effusively about the Metaverse (without really knowing about or actually using existing metaverse platforms).  

 

Then again, I can't quite blame hypesters for misunderstanding the Metaverse when their working definition for it has been something like, "That VR thing Meta is making with NFTs in it I think?"

 

So to reset expectations around both generative AI and the Metaverse, let's go back to the canonical definition:

 

Today's Flickr Pick: Exal Grut Makes Second Life Look Like Video Game Screenshots

Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Exal Grut is a role-playing, story-telling fiend whose stream overflows with characters and stories. This one is familiar, a tomb-raiding adventurer who has encountered more than she bargained for. The title “Lara Croft made it look easy” is a good fit with the expression on her face that implies this story is being played for laughs. 

For more characters and stories, click here:

WATCH: Sims/Second Life Dev Rod Humble Unveils Features in Life by You, His Ambitious, Upcoming Simulation Sandbox Game

In March we got the first in-depth preview of Life by You, the new life simulation game lead developed by ex-Linden Lab CEO / former EA/Sims lead Rod Humble. Since then, the game's YouTube channel has been steadily showing off various features, including Rod himself showing off the avatar movement interface. (Watch above.)

I have to wince and grin at the video because Life by You's movement UI is already easier and more intuitive than what it currently is in Second Life -- even though Rod himself implemented some click-and-move improvements to the official SL viewer during his tenure as CEO. By that time, however, most active users had switched over to a third party viewer for using Second Life -- so any fixes to the official viewer were like giving a new paint job to the entrance of a mansion that's already been mostly abandoned.  

That to one side, Life by You is looking pretty impressive. Previous videos show off the powerful home customization options, and a feature for editing chats with NPCS: 

Attend My GamesBeat Online Talk for Free Next Week -- And Get My Discount Code to Attend GamesBeat In Los Angeles!

Next week I'm speaking about Making a Metaverse That Matters (and related topics) for the first time, at the GamesBeat conferences' virtual event -- go here to register for a free pass. 

And if you can be in the Los Angeles area next week, you can attend GamesBeat's in-person conference on March 22-23 at the Marina del Rey Marriott, with a special discount from the GameBeat folks -- here's how:

Today's Second Life Flickr Pick: Kaze Takeda Photographs the Hilarious Adventures of "Percy & Muriel"

Cajsa Lilliehoak covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

Kaze Takeda has a fun and eventful photostream, but I have fallen in love with his album featuring his not-so-great-uncle Percy and the vivacious Muriel. They are adventurous avatars, with lives full of fun. But their adventures generally run to mayhem as in “Getting Away from It All.” Hilarity ensues.  

For more of Percy and Muriel, click here:

New Apple VR Rumors Ignore Small Sales & Insiders Hesitant About VR

I definitely don't want to get into the habit of dunking on seriously questionable Insider articles but, well, here we go again:

The original designer of Meta's VR offering, Oculus, says Apple's much-rumored rival metaverse headset [!!!] is "so good."

Palmer Luckey, a billionaire who cofounded Oculus VR in 2012 and now leads defense-tech startup Anduril, made the bold claim in a tweet on Sunday, suggesting he had tried out the iPhone maker's next-generation hardware...

Industry watchers are expecting the tech giant to debut its metaverse project in June at its Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), particularly after the company made a quiet announcement about its iPad last week that would typically be saved for the conference.

First off:

A VR headset.

Is not.

The Metaverse.

It is definitely not a "metaverse project".

It's not even a necessary component of the Metaverse. VR HMDs are but one of many devices to access a metaverse platform.

It's like calling a new iPhone with updated 3D graphics a "metaverse project" -- in fact, that would actually be somewhat more accurate, since vastly vastly more people use smartphones to access metaverse platforms, than do so in VR.

Anyway, the real issue here is, first of all, taking away the wrong lesson of the Oculus Quest. As anyone who follows Meta's earnings reports can tell you, Quest sales remain slow -- the install base remains small, not yet even 20 million.

The other problem is putting more stock in what Oculus' founder (who no longer works in VR) says about Apple's VR headset -- while ignoring what people actually working at Apple say. As I blogged a couple months ago, citing a Times report and an insider I interviewed for my book:

Top 3 Posts Including: The Half-Truths of a Metaverse "Obituary" & A Debate on Whether the Metaverse Needs a Blockchain

Above: Insider's attempted Metaverse debunking comes replete with VR headset illustration indicating Insider's editors don't actually understand the concept

• Does The Metaverse Really Need A Blockchain? I Debate That With Devs From Neal Stephenson's Lamina1 Metaverse-As-A-Service Startup
• The Insider & Ed Zitron's "Obituary" To The Metaverse Is Actually A Zombie Horde Of Embarrassing Half-Truths
• The Coming Glut Of AI-Made Content