Readers' 2008 predictions have been posted here, and they make for great reading; soon, I'll start selecting ten of my favorites for a vote. Meantime, here's my own ten predictions to vote on. Select three by next Tuesday. Some of my explanations for each after the break-- responses welcome!
Peak concurrency passes 100,000-- but doesn't pass 150,000
The introduction of Havok 4 will greatly improve max concurrency rates, but frequent downtimes due to other factors will stymie growth.
Active monthly user base passes 750,000-- but doesn't pass 1,000,000
Pondering the current plateau of 550,000 users, I suggested it was a matter of a conceptual barrier. For reasons I'll explain in a future post, I doubt that barrier will be broken any time soon.
Authorities implicate L$ transfers in international criminal/terrorism scheme
The seeds for this confrontation have already been sown, with terrorists and counter-terrorists already ensconced for their first showdown in the metaverse.
"My Second Life: The video diaries of Molotov Alta" wins a 2007 Oscar for Best Animated Short
HBO's promotion will win it the nomination; Academy members who rarely watch all the entries in this relatively obscure category will vote on their vague name recognition of Second Life.
An established developer launches full-fledged game in Second Life
WindLight and Havok 4 will finally inspire a PC game studio to experiment with SL as a platform.
Linden Lab is not purchased or put on IPO track
Slowing growth will likely slow this (probably inevitable) move.
The Lindens do not open source Second Life’s server grid
For legal and technical reasons, this move will probably be postponed this year, probably next.
A prominent real world fashion label acquires rights to create an SL-created design
With so many industry figures rumored or known to be aware of SL's fashion industry, this is also an inevitable move, in my opinion.
Second Life port for Xbox 360 announced
Another inevitability, I think: the 360 has a keyboard interface and broadband connections, Second Life is a Microsoft-friendly application.
Main Grid opened to all ages
There have been rumors of this, and it would also explain the Lindens' haste to introduce age identification.
So those are my ten-- which ones are just totally off?
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