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Monday, August 11, 2008

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Pavig Lok

It's worth also tracking IMVU, which shares the same target market as lively, and coincidentally now about the same search traffic. Search doesn't mean use though, and from my counts lively usage has dropped significantly in the last month post the launch peak.

I've been doing some (completely non empirical) counting of lively rooms since the launch. I hit it at peak times and have a look how they're going. My figures are patently wrong, but anecdotaly probably show a trend.

day two: 45 rooms have a crowd, 55 rooms have a duo, 1980 rooms have a lonely av, and 1480 rooms are empty

day ten: 39 rooms have a crowd, 36 rooms have a duo - the rest campers or empty

yesterday: 26 rooms have a crowd, 22 rooms with a duo, rest campers or empty.

You need more than one av for communication, so in that time we have moved from just over 2% of rooms in lively having the possibility of active communication/engagement going on to under 1%.

Clearly lively has a long way to go if they're currently at imvu levels of interest and on the way down. IMVU has not proven to be a SL killer yet, but has had steady growth in interest over the last year. If lively can hold it's own and begin to compete with IMVU it has a future. Either that or it'll have to jump markets before we see an improvement, and that'll only come (most likely) with an update of the tech to make it more attractive to vertical markets.

Two Worlds

Lively sparked up for a while in hype, but then fell dramatically.

Second Life will probably never catch up to WoW.

In other news, water is wet. Fire hurts. The principal...likes soda.

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