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Sunday, September 14, 2008

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Ann Otoole

Sure the number will grow. It is all hands on deck at the Lab to scale up to one million concurrency. The signs are there that this includes new user entry barrier reduction or removal. Once the system can handle 250,000 concurrency then the Lab can begin advertising. All you see today has been accomplished without any serious advertising and is because of word of mouth and press articles. This is a significant feat in my opinion. Add effective marketing and the active user base will explode.

Arwyn Quandry

I don't think it'll continue to grow so steadily as this, though that would be nice. I have a feeling that like most things, the growth will fluctuate, though continue upwards. There is no major reason right now for it to fall lower, and with the amount of press (and there is no such thing as bad press (even the terrible Fox News story)) SL is getting, there is plenty of reason to grow. The trend shall continue, albeit at a wiggly rate. I can only hope that TSL grows as well, since we seem to be dying off quickly with only a handful of avatars on the grid every day. It would be interesting to see the rate of concurrency of TSL to SL.

Kate Amdahl

The thing I'm excited about is that there didn't seem to be any unusual grid problems with so many people on.

I do wish it were possible to tell how many of those avatars are bots, because I think they cloud the numbers. Just another good reason ( http://kateamdahl.livejournal.com/43120.html ) to require some kind of identification of avatars not being run directly by a human being!

^^^\ Kate /^^^

(Who will probably be the first against the wall when the Artificial Intelligence rebellion comes.)

Nexii Malthus

I personally think it will just keep going on and on as the technology improves itself. We haven't even reached anywhere near the realistically possible active users.

This is the absolute top of pioneering on the web. And this means we could eventually have SL growing to the total amount of what used to be actually people browsing normal 2D browsers from todays stand point in many years on when clients have diversified and evolved into efficient programs for communication and presence in a real seamless world, and not just a bunch of chatrooms extrapolated into something 3D but not really as was poorly done by an attempt of Google's Lively.

Dirk Talamasca

I agree with, Kate. There are a lot of bots and a lot of very active residents are using them. The fact that we can actually handle the load is the point that is being made here though. There is no real boon to the economy until those numbers reflect residents that are spending money in-world.

rightasrain

It's great to see the concurrency crawl upward and there must be some increased mojo in that asset server for sure. But what does that mean to user experience? You can still only pack in about 60 fashionistas to a fashion show. We went nuts and opened Black Swan to 90 and the whole thing came apart. So sim concurrency which is the most interesting part of the shared experience is not growing too fast (although mono seems to help a little).

And what about total user hours? We aren't going to know for last few months 'cause LL too busy to post that data.

Active users are flat/slightly up, but new registrations are dead. And I really don't think a noob is looking at the concurrency to decide if they want to leave orientation island.

But the most interesting news is the new island growth that LL reports ( http://rezzable.com/blog/rightasrain-rimbaud/2700-new-islands-since-august-grid#comment-1174)-- or is it news? Is it just fancy accounting for swapping sims for voids?

Ann--if LL waits for 250,000 to start marketing, my sense is that is a long wait and will be the most virtual experience LL gonna ever have.

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