Survey: How Big Is the Market for Second Life Enterprise?

This week, the Lindens officially launched its behind-the-firewall product, Second Life Enterprise™, formerly code-named "Nebraska", with a starting price of $55,000. It comes out the gate with 14 clients, including a number of high profile firms like IBM and Northrop Grumman; how many more potential clients are out there? Please make your best educated guess below:

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Possible points to consider: On the plus side, the stellar reputation of SLE's existing clients may encourage many more companies to invest in this, as will the recommendations of leading analysts who consider virtual world enterprise solutions a rising business trend, and Second Life's brand name dominance in this space. On the negative side, much of the same functionality for SLE can be obtained at much cheaper prices with OpenSimulator-based virtual worlds, such as ReactionGrid. Looking at the larger market, the existing user base of consumers active in 3D immersive non-game virtual worlds is still relatively small (probably under a million total), which means an organization which chooses to invest in SLE will not only have to pay $55K+, but plan for a long learning and adoption phase. So what's your take?

Comments

[Jovin]

Depends what kind of client you mean - probably a few NGO and education clients but virtually no big-ticket corporations (the ones LL fool themselves are interested). The companies mentioned, that are already signed-up, run the risk of looking silly if they're NOT somehow involved in a potential future tech. Everyone else will save their 55K for something worthwhile and watch over the shoulder of those early-adopters.

[Maggie Darwin]

Considering how many other lower-cost ways there are to pilot a private VW space, I expect this high-ticket approach will face stiff resistance in current economic conditions.

"IBM and Northrup did it" is not a very convincing sales argument, IBM and Northrup do lots of expensive things. Most enterprises don't do everything IBM and Northrup do. :-)

[epredator]

Initially this seemed quite expensive, but that may just be the I am looking at that based on being able to do this for "free" on other platforms. Of course though the brand loyalty for Second Life and the ability to try before you buy on the free grid come into play.
3 years ago it would have been great to drop SL behind the firewall and get even greater adoption, hat path took a lot longer for whatever reason. Now we have a degree of demand, even if it is return people asking "so what is the state of SL now?". This makes that a much more interesting conversation and lets us also talk about the other platforms and choices. It is clearly a choice option for those who really do see the benefit in human to human communication at distance.
For those companies still struggling with the fact that their people may just start talking to one another there is still a culture leap to take.
A price tag and known packaging may just help someone seeking to get actual buy in and commitment. The others though that are struggling to persuade will continue to have to do the free opensim or public SL routes to prove the point.
That is until a few more industry verticals emerge, built on top of various virtual world platforms, that stop the conversation having to be about which platform is needed to do the basics, and instead whcih platform is supporting the core business for that industry vertical.

[Bill Freese]

Too many variables to make a serious guess. Will word get out that people love it or hate it? Will folks who have not considered it or been considered for it hear about it now? Will it expand in capabilities or drop in price? What will happen with education pricing? How will it be marketed and supported over the next year? All I can do is wish them luck with it.

[coco]

If the demand was so high.... why hasent forterra, quaq, and a few others already done an IPO and bought up the wild main grid, teen grid, and all of LL IP by now?

There are a dozen VR tech companies with corporate firewalled tech solutions this SL fanbase has never heard of.

Ill bet even LL VP of Strategy has never heard of them either. Thats the problem.

[Ciaran Laval]

I would say 50 is doable, although I'm not convinced at all by LL's blurb. This 55K is a yearly deal right, rather than a one off? How much do people pay in the second year, another 55K or does it drop and is the hardware leased?

55K isn't that expensive for a solution, Microsoft volume license deals will often go beyind that figure each year, but those deals are more flexible.

[Brian Bauer]

$55K, SL ?
for those of you who have made careers in the enterprise corporate workspace, here is a questions for you: what was the last product that you purchased for enterprise rollout that cost $55k? can you share with us the use-case and model of success? No?
When MSN realized they were getting trounced by Google, the response was "pay people to use MS search". Giving away VR as prices like $10/user, or $55k for the enterprise is an extremely telling gesture. $55k is "free" if you are Fortune 500. $55k does not register on the balance sheet. But is that an advantage? well, that depends on which side of the freeware/freemium fence you sit. I personally believe it is misleading. is the SL Enterprise business model based on employee-sourced(ie. crowd sourced/UGC) content? should the employees be doing their jobs or building the office? if UGC works really well for corporate operations, shouldn't it work just as well in real-life operations? maybe employees should all pitch in to vacuum, or mow the lawn of the corporate campus. maybe plant trees outside the corporate parking lot?
UGC is a massive business tool. it drives a thriving population in IMVU and Stardoll. yes there are lessons to be learned, but they ar not so simple.
RE SL E with 14 "customers". maybe. is that what people said about Linux 15 years ago? sure, most large companies has a little taste of everything, but were they "customers". Now I am NOT in anyway suggesting that SLE is the next linux(as I do not belief this is the case), I would say that it isw likely that of these 14 customers, 50% probably own at least 1, if not 2 more VR test beds.

"behind the firewall" does not mean "Corporate Ready". Corporate implementations are just as specialized as those aimed at teenage girls, and end-user who prefer to look like monkey-princesses.

the reason that no VR platform has taken off in the corporate space is multi-faceted, and includes, but is not limited to:
1. Technology stability
2. ease of use
3. user readiness
4. VR product richness is target industries
5. ROI use-cases that are accepted by CFO/Controller

price is not the driver here. if the ROI that marketers claim could truly withstand the prssure from the CFO spreadsheet, the product could cost millions. I heard someone say recently that if all that free stuff on the internet cost $1, 99% of the user-base would disappear. $55k is not only essentially free to a major corp, it is also an incredibly mis-leading trojan horse of the worst kind.

SL is leading the campaign with statements about its massive user-base and virtual economy. without doubt, SL has a scale that no one can touch at the moment. SL is proof that a vendor can make a fine living without impactig main stream consumers. cross-over into corporate requires DL(different life).
makes me think if Google betting that they can own the OS of healthcare because of their #1 www.com ranking......hmmm. the NYC subway also has a number 1 traffic rating and captive audience, but I'm not going there to get a checkup. the point is: crossover success is dependent on how well you know your target and their context. some things work: dunkin donuts at Exxon. some things do not: dunkin donuts at 24hr Fitness

I have no particular issue with SL. they are unique. they were first. and they are the baseline against which all things good and bad are often compared. Where I have trouble, is the concept of anyone throwing an "Enterprise Ready" sticker on a Dora lunch box and marketing it towards executives

[Arcadia Codesmith]

I'm predicting 50, easily. Not because the solution is that good for enterprise applications(it really isn't), but because executives are chumps.

Or to put it another way... there are freeware software packages that can do everything that PhotoShop can do, without PhotoShop's utterly unrealistic, punative pricing scam... err, scheme. How many graphics shops have ditched Photoshop for the free options? Not enough to make Adobe lose any sleep.

Give a good enough pitch, and you can sell a corporate executive ice water in Antarctica. They're sort of sheltered and out of touch, which is a nicer way of saying "dumb as a box of rocks".

[Ciaran Laval]

Brian I'm not sure if this counts but I can assure you, the company I work for pays more than 55K to Microsoft every year for software licenses and product upgrades.