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Friday, January 01, 2010


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A takeover is an interesting idea but seems less likely to me if it's true that SL concurrency (and by implication relevancy) is on a downward slide. No-one with any business sense buys a company at that point - you wait till it almost folds and buy it dirt-cheap in a rescue deal. Then you try to resurrect it phoenix-style, minus all the elements (or personnel) you didn't like. There may be some vultures circling, but they won't pounce just yet.

Second Lie

I predict that in 2010, 2 and 0 keys wear out just as often, 9's wear out a lot less, 1's wear out a lot faster.

(channeling Kevin Nealon)

Gwyneth Llewelyn

OpenSim has 5,000 active users... just at IBM alone. Guess who's bearing the burden of the more complex permission issues on interop ;)

So curiously the reason why I think that interop will exist is not to join all those hippy, techie, Stallmann-y OpenSim grids to SL, but to get the corporate grids by IBM, Intel, and other huge investors in OpenSim to interconnect to both SL and SL Enterprise...

Hamlet Au

Gwyn, you could be right, but I think IBM will shift a lot of its emphasis from interop to "through the firewall" solutions. Also, it's my impression Intel is trying to launch its own version of OpenSim as the standard, not Second Life, while a lot of leading figures in the OpenSim developer community aren't totally behind the interop standards LL and IBM are pushing.

Gwyneth Llewelyn

Oh, yes, I'm sure of that. The point is, even if Intel wants to launch a virtual world of their own based on OpenSim, to avoid the inevitable comparisons — "there is nobody in your world! no content! no economy!" — what would make sense is to start from Day One connected to the SL Grid :) And, of course, the same would apply to IBM as well...

... oh, and a takeover by IBM or Intel would definitely be possible, although I seriously doubt about it. ;)

Hamlet Au

I dunno, Gwyn, Intel's play seems to be a limited-use research grid (i.e. "Science Sim") so I'm not sure they have an incentive to show a large user base. Or enable asset transfer between their OS grid and others.

Arcadia Codesmith

Here's a prediction for 2010: The alpha transparency bug will not be fixed.

Yeah, I know. I'm playing it safe.

Ferd Frederix

OpenSim is not secure enough to support an economy.

I posted a few funny ideas of what Bill or Steve Jobs might say if Microsoft bought the Lab at http://secondlife.mitsi.com/Secondlife/Posters/

Feel free to add your own ideas!

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Wagner James Au
Wagner James "Hamlet" Au
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