Metaverse musician and Web 2.0 analyst Grace McDunnough has an incisive and important post responding to a Harvard Business School case study called "Linden Lab: Crossing the Chasm", which provokes her to frame that topic in the form of a question: What will push Second Life to a point where it reaches mainstream adoption?
One business strategy, pushed by Crossing the Chasm author Geoffrey Moore, is to aggressively go after a particular market segment, and Grace wonders which one the Lindens should focus on. Harvard's analysis believes those include enterprise customers, educators, adult consumers or teens, but Grace is skeptical any of them will push Second Life across the gap. For example, viz educators:
I'm convinced the education market is saturated... and the introduction of land pricing model changes combined the recent departure of John Lester/Pathfinder Linden seem to indicate that the Lab's past love affair with the edurati is in that "old married couple" stage - safe, secure, not really growing wildly and with a lot less sex.
Well, how about enterprise? Grace balks there too:
As an "embedded practitioner" I know first hand how difficult it is to get people to download and install simple plugins for WebEx or AdobeConnect, much less go through the standard Second Life download and orientation so it's really hard for me to imagine that this is the "beachhead" Moore suggested.
Ms. McDunnough makes many great points, though I think she may be complicating the question some. What market will make Second Life cross the chasm? Here's one idea:
Everyone who's already expressed an interest in Second Life in the past, and who will in the near future.