Open Forum: What Are You Doing With *Your* Supply and Demand of Linden Dollars?

The value of the Linden Dollar has spiked sharply in the last 48 hours, so much so that Linden Lab has posted an announcement seeking to reassure Residents that the internal economy is still robust. The fluctuation probably reflects some concerns over the Linden layoff news from last week, especially among Residents who own extremely high volumes of L$. If the past is any guide, the value will probably stabilize in coming weeks. I hope to have a more thorough analysis later, but for now, I open the floor to readers: Setting aside the broader trend, what are you personally doing with the Linden Dollars you own and the Linden Dollars you plan to buy?

Comments

[Shava Nerad]

If people are leaving, wouldn't that mean they were selling off currency, and the value of the currency would go *down*? The lindex doesn't really float from what I understand. This would more likely be the Lindens demonstrating (through soaking some losses, perhaps?) that the economy can remain robust despite or to obscure people leaving...?

[Viggo Recreant]

Shava, the value of the L$ did go down. The higher number on the chart shows that you need to burn more $L to get 1 USD making $L less valuable.

[Adric Antfarm]

Zyngo, tip jars, push weapons, cars, whatever Zindra has to offer, and the things I normally blow it on. Now is the time to make an investment in-world if we want that world to be there.

That Linden says the economy is robust (and I happen to feel it's doing fine) is not going to stop individuals who feel they effect nothing by not spending until they get that sign from their God that the sky is not falling. These individuals total groups who do nothing but ensure the sky does fall.

This is not (I hope) individuals (yet). This is the elite biggies who take from Second Life and flee at the first sign of trouble yelling about search or other injustices never giving a damn thing back to the grid.

[LokiLoki]

I took this opertunity to buy some Lindens to help pay for some of my rentals in New Babbage

[Wol Euler]

I agree with Adric that not spending because of fear of the economy tanking is the best way to ensure that the economy does tank.

I want SL to succeed, and one of the ways to ensure that it does is to keep its economy moving, so I am still paying tier and still buying clothes and still giving tips to DJs and performers.

I buy my L$ from the little blue button because it is not worth my time or energy to do it off-world. If that means that I lose one US cent per transaction, then what the hell. Over the course of four years that adds up to one Starbucks coffee. I simply refuse to care about fractions of a penny per week. IMHO YMMV.

[Stephan]

I think it is not only people selling lindens, it is rather people not buying them. With the recent layoffs and the related press coverage, it is just normal that people wait with investments. Why buy land or invest in expensive products, when SL may shut down each day? I personally don´t think SL will shut down, but when reading main stream press articles about the layoffs, residents may get the impression. So they just wait and see what happens. The best the Lindens can do now is talk about upcomming cool stuff and they do with launching Viewer 2.1 or Havok7. The Lindens have to communicate now, that they have great plans for Second Life and what they are up to the next month. That will create confidence and stabilize the economy.

[Ann Otoole]

People get more SL fun for their rl dollar! Excellent!

[Nine Warrhol]

I stocked up when I heard about the dip. Got a lot of L for the money and I shopped/am shopping..lol

[Komuso Tokugawa]

Actually they get less, and Viggo is correct - the L$ has lost value compared to US$.

The Spot rate, ie: the instant market rate you could sell at and usually get filled quickly as opposed to Linden recommended sell rate, has been stable around 260/261 L$/US$ for months - at least until last week.

There was usually a L$10 to 20 Million sitting in the order flow just below this rate waiting to cash out at the best rate, but in the last week ~L$212 Million has been added to the order flow wanting to cash out which = ~ US$820K at L$260/1us$ or which = ~us$770K at L$274/1US$ which is the current spot rate on the weakened exchange rate.

SO about US$50K has been wiped in value from the current order flow. as a rough back of the envelope calculation.

[Jovin]

My sales died in the few days after the announcement, now they're back and that includes big-ticket items - seems that people are spending again, which is encouraging. I'm guessing the slump is people trying to cash-out their L$ because they fear some kind of collapse - ironically the kind of collapse they'll cause by dumping all their L$ so quickly. It's a confusing picture right now.

[Alicia Chenaux]

I bought $Lindens for the first time in my SLife when they hit a good price. I kind of thought I'd just hold on to them, but um... yeah. I kinda did more shopping in the past 2 days than I have in the past month.

[Simeon Beresford]

if you were considering using your lindens to buy land I think it would be a good time.

[Anya Ristow]

If the past is any guide? You're kidding, right?

The Linden has been held steady by Supply Linden for so long that the last time there was any fluctuation at all SL was very different than it is today. So, there is no past to compare to. We're in new territory. If the money supply needs to shrink and LL does not have in place enough sinks to take Linden dollars out of the system, there will continue to be pressure on the value of the currency.

You can expect to see new Linden-dollar-denominated fees. It's the only thing LL can do, other than buying Linden dollars, which they won't do, to reduce the money supply. And they'd better hurry.

[EileenK]

I agree with Ann. More Lindens for the dollar is a good thing! Of course, I'm not a big shopper, but I have to pay the rent on my 2048 and I guess I better make some more clothes textures and start making more clothes.

[Little Lost Linden]

I have been spending the same ammount and not planning on changing future spending habits very much, however, I don't spend very much to begin with. Mostly just items I can use to track spirits compressed into spherical configurations in order to travel from the other side to the realm of the living.

[Sandor Balczo]

I stopped substantial shopping (both in terms of amount per single item and quantity of items) last year. My clothes are the same as 2009 and the skin as well. I do not buy furniture and only recently did I renew my sex attachment to keep at bay with the only real business existing in SL: sex.

Because, let's face it: SL has become a pornographic world with nice buildings. And I mean this in the widest sense of the word "pornography" which means "drawing of dirtiness". The beauty of SL, if any, is only a useless façade.

As far as land is concerned, after the demise of the region I lived in (within Azure Islands) and having wasted about $800 in tiers for two years without a refund or fair land replacement, I decided to stop purchasing land that never will be mine even if it should.

I do give L$8192 monthly to my partner to pay for half of the land he rents but I expect SL will end its life suddenly like There did, therefore this is more money going down the drain.

I see all the warning signs: 1. shrinking economy; 2. devaluation of the currency; 3. more free accounts than paying accounts; 4. less creative accounts; 5. boardroom denial.

What angers me is that we could have avoided all of this mess if LL had listened to its more creative customers and worked WITH them rather than against them.

Only LL is to blame for its inevitable fail and no layoffs will be able to change that notion.

The only consolation: I am glad they are learning the lesson the hard way. It compensates for all the frustration I had to deal with because of griefers and big egos since 2007.

[Crap Mariner]

Voice Morphing for everyone!

-ls/cm

[Mariko Nightfire]

I'm a fashionista and shopaholic; but,in the past few months, I have cut my spending on goods by about 80%. The reason is not economic. Its technical. It's been taking so long for objects in stores to rez that all the enjoyment has gone out of shopping. A number of my friends have said the same thing. Hence, much less shopping.

I keep my supply of Linden dollars low. The reason is economic. I know that this is a good time to be buying Lindens. However, I have concerns about the future value of the Linden Dollar and the stability of the SL economy. If given the choice between holding Linden dollars and real dollars, I'll hold real dollars.

[Adeon Writer]

It will stabilize when it clicks with people that now is an excellent time to buy a few extra lindens at a better-than-usual deal.

[Ann Otoole]

@ Mariko - It is a long haul but some of us are trying to show how a store can be low lag. The issue is people just want a super fancy place for vanity reasons. If they managed the ktris/fr in their stores to below 500 then things would rez fast enough for everyone. As for the places that are crowded with avatars? They are screwed until script limits roll out anyway. If someone wants to have a good experience for customers then they can limit the number of avatars allowed in the sim to 20 or less. for now. Just the sad fact of life at the moment. People wearing all that resizer crap. And merchants selling resizer infested crap wonder why there is all that lag when their customers actually wear it on the spot.

Long ways to go. But we will get there. The replacement low impact resizer scripts are free.

[mecha innis]

"I expect SL will end its life suddenly like There did."

SL is a dynamic 3D graphics program with scripting capabilities which allows you to create interactive objects and animations and share these with others around the globe in real time, in addition to music and videos.

Computer power is growing exponentially and breakthroughs in artificial intelligence are very likely over the next ten years.

This means programs like SL are on a fast evolutionary track, and a Matrix like experience will be the next stop. No my friend, the future is virtual, and SL is that future.

[shockwave yareach]

Mecha: While you are undoubtably correct, nothing guarantees that it will be LL who has anything at all to do with it. Once upon a time, NetWare was THE way to network computers. When was the last time you saw any Netware software, hmm? Novell lost their way and it's dead. And while Novell is doing well in other businesses now, LL doesn't have any other products but this virtual world.

SL is also a venue not needing government and rules impeding the users activities. It is the only taste of freedom many people will get - freedom from age, distance, infirmity, and disease. Unfortunately for us, M doesn't seem to grasp that freedom and capitalism are what drive SL and will drive whatever VW finally displaces it from its throne. And that is what makes it so unlikely that LL will have anything to do with the future of VW.

It's a lot like AMF taking over Harley Davidson. Even if they are a successful company, they don't know beans about motorcycles. Those in LL who know beans about VWs are becoming a very rare thing indeed.

[Evora Laurent]

I buy exactly the same few thousand lindens to play with each week, and stick to that.. I *have* been spending a lot more recently - there have been some great deals out there for shopaholics like me, and I'm organizing my wedding, so there's a slightly more than average outlay there too (ha ha). The LL reports haven't impacted me in the least - my budget is for my SL fun, I stick within it, and if SL should vanish tomorrow, frankly, I would find the loss of friends I don't yet have alternate contact info for to be a *far* greater loss than a few lindens. That, and the incredible creativity and artistry shared by the SL craftspeople. I see the loss of their time and labours to be much harder to deal with.

[Sandor Balczo]

I second everything Shockwave said in the last post and I would like to add that I have a very powerful computer (a Windows PC after years of Macs) with an incredibly high performance processor (i7 @3.33 GHz) and an equally great graphics card (nVidia GTX 480).

Not only does SL crash me whenever it wants to (for no apparent reason and especially now that I am attending SL7B, scripts or no scripts) but it also claims that my graphics card is not compatible, which is ridiculous.

I am sorry, Mecha, but technology is out of the question here. Even if I used a computer specifically made by MIT and NASA for me to run SL, I would not run SL without crashing or being frustrated otherwise. No wonder people are leaving SL in hordes and there is no such thing as new users.

Personally, I believe that the biggest mistake the current management of SL could do is believing that a faulty and more complicated browser like Viewer 2, obviously designed by someone who doesn't know jack about SL, would guarantee more accounts and more retention. You cannot retain people if they crash as soon as they start using the program!

Even a fool could understand that it is the whole structure of SL as a platform that needs to be redesigned. It is badly written software made in 1999 to work in the SF bay area only, for crying out loud! Take off the slices of ham off your eyes and admit it, SL fanboys!

What does LL do instead? Fire the scapegoats and hide in the sand.

Meh!

[Mark]

My technical experience with SL has improved over the years.

I now have few crashes and technical issues that I did before. I guess it's just like RL, just because someone might have a bad one doesn't mean everyone does.