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Monday, November 15, 2010

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Ignatius Onomatopoeia

Hamlet, I'm a proponent of the theory of Peak Oil, but I'm not about to argue that even in a world of soon-to-constrict oil supplies and disappointing returns from renewable energy, Apple can runs its doo-dads without the Old-Economy behemoths.

Now if the graph showed a decline in the purchase of CDs, DVDs, bound books, and so on as the use of digital devices and virtual engagement increased, we'd have an apples-to-apples measurement.

I daresay that I don't drive my Mini Cooper (or peddle my bike, my usual ride) less because of my engagement in virtual worlds. I build fewer model airplanes, read a little less, watch fewer films. That's the glaring weakness in Castronova's ideas from Exodus: folks are trading means for how they consume media, and consuming different media.

They are not buying less gasoline or fewer leather jackets because they are playing WoW or SL or Minecraft.

Adeon Writer

"They are not buying less gasoline [...] because they are playing [...] SL or Minecraft."

Well, I know I am.

Rin Tae

I think .. that the development of the value of exxon Mobile has less to do with virtual worlds but more with the current economical problems. Those means that less oil is being used since oil consumption has so far been going hand in hand with the state of the economy. Now of course with oil running out sometime in the forseeable future and the climate, this might have to change, but so far everything still follows the old model and oil is still the main fuel of the economy.
So the economic crisis (with factories and businesses closing and people reducing their consumption) has lead to cheaper oil as it lowered the demand for it (sadly not by more efficient use or by replacing it with renewable energy but by people who used it going out of buisness or reducing their activities). On the other hand the electronic gadget market (and I would now add virtual worlds as well as online activites to it) has been growing since some time now and it also is less depandant on oil (however it is depandat on other fossil materials that might cause problems in the future).
A internet conenction is, in most places, cheeper then driving a car around and it offers more interesting activities too.

But to get back to the underlying thesis of this, not only are those curves displaying completly different markets that follow different constrains and have different dirivng forces and influences, but it also shows the point of why for the economy in it's whole this all has litte to no meaning. The money that is flowing out of the oil buisness (where it does not generate the profits it once had) now moves to the electronics, the apps and online activites (that now offers the profits the investors are after). Once something new comes up the same investors will move on to the new big thing and the vallue of Apple (provided they wont become part in the new hype) will fall like Exoon's is now.

The only problem is, that while economic theory usually assums perfect mobility of the workforce, in reality it becomes difficult to give former oil workers jobs in the electronics industry.

Fogwoman Gray

This looks like a classic case of a logical fallacy to me. Taking two unrelated bits of data and trying to make a case for causation?

LokiLoki

There is a better story in here somewhere about how Virtual or Digital content value is rising.

Corcosman Voom

Even without the comparison to Exxon, wow. The last five years for Apple have spectacular.

smiles large

i suspected lately you were out of your mind, now I am sure

Komuso Tokugawa

facepalm

Arcadia Codesmith

I'm often skeptical when Hamlet pulls out a graph.

But plotting the trend lines, if Apple maintains its current momentum, it's not just going to surpass Exxon-Mobile's current market cap, it's going to surpass its peak market cap.

Smart money is quietly leaving the petroleum sector. This has little to do with short-term fluctuations in price and much to do with a growing recognition that big oil is doomed.

That leaves people heavily invested in oil sounding increasingly out-of-touch in their declarations that the future is bright and oil stocks are a good buy.

Apple has its own set of challenges and I would assess the stock as significantly overvalued at this point in time. They may be creating their own mini tech bubble. But given a choice between apples and oil barrels, I'd park my money in fruit.

[disclaimer] The forgoing is not investment advice. Do your own homework. I'm not a financial advisor and you can't sue me if you lose your shirt. [/disclaimer]

Gwyneth Llewelyn

Whatever the real reason is behind all of that (I just read an article today where Apple claims that they don't make a profit from iTunes; but they aren't losing any money there, either — the profits come from the hardware devices they sell), I'm still laughing at all this.

Believe me, after ten years, it gives me some pride to be in a room and open my MacBook, see the usual smiles and comments about Apple, and when complaining that some obscure Windows networking thingy is not working, I will just smugly say, "well, people have to start to realise that they should be following the largest corporation in the world; it's time to move ahead with the times and forget the runners-up" ;)

I use the same approach when someone tells me that their software only runs on Windows. "What, you don't support the largest corporation in the world? Why not?" which makes the speaker go wide-eyed and shocked.

Fun times are ahead. Granted, with Gates out of Microsoft and Jobs with serious health problems which makes his presence at Apple less and less certain, the Clash of the Titans will be much more interesting in the next few years. I was prepared to believe that Kinect could be the technology putting Microsoft back on top, by starting a real interface revolution — one where there suddenly is no more interface at all. The first-generation Kinect is still not "the" thing that will put Microsoft back on the limelight, though, so there is some room left for Apple to innovate further and earn a few more dollars (very likely, by adopting iOS across all their hardware platforms).

Interesting times are definitely ahead.

 Pride Mobility

I do believe that Kinect put Microsoft could be the technology back on top.

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