Botgirl Blogs: Virtual Worlds Aren't Growing, and Need Browser and Social Network Integration to Regain Steam

Second Life blogger Botgirl Questi points to a very interesting if sobering Pew Generations report which notes, as she puts it, that "virtual worlds have less participants than any other online niche surveyed and are experiencing no growth". Just as concerning to me is the data above, excerpted from a Pew chart: While teens and Millenials are considerably more likely to play online games than other demographic segments, they're only slightly more likely to try an online world. This is the segment who are going to shape Internet usage most in future years, and they're simply not moving to virtual worlds in any great numbers. Botgirl's solution?

After reading the report, I'm more convinced than ever that browser-based access to virtual worlds in conjunction with social network integration is the most credible light at the end of the tunnel.

She isn't arguing for the end of heavy 3D download clients and anonymous identities, just that a lighter, more seamless alternative should be available. This is actually where the market is already moving: Both Second Life and Blue Mars have recently rolled out a web-based cloud-deployed alternative, but neither company is proposing to eliminate the download client. I've been a longtime advocate of having a Facebook Connect option for similar reasons. Now, however, I'm starting to think there's an even better way to make 3D virtual worlds more mass market: Integration with Kinect and Xbox Live. But that's for another post. For now, read much more from Botgirl here.

Comments

[Jovin]

Isn't Sony's Home still growing quite significantly?

Maybe what most virtual worlds actually lack is a purpose - or is purposelessness a necessary prerequisite? Instead of waiting interminably for that light at the end of the tunnel, why don't we all just get out of the tunnel? :-)

[Hamlet Au]

Sony claims millions of Sony Home users, but they're INCREDIBLY vague on usage. They won't report daily/weekly/monthly actives, concurrency, nothing. I doubt it has much activity beyond one-time visits.

[Emperor Norton]

Were do you get this "it's technology" conclusion? Outside the game consul crowd anyone playing a 3d on-line games easily has the the hardware do use Second Life or Blue Mars. All the polling date means virtual worlds aren't appealing to gamers.

[cube inada]

"virtual worlds" were never a vertical category.

theres chat, theres games, theres social tools, theres entertainemnt, theres business tools, theres presentations.

some use realtime 3d as an environmental,immerssive medium, some with avatars, some not.

so now maybe we can move on...unless of course IBM patents it all;)

[CronoCloud Creeggan]

You know, Hamlet, you should just write post about how incorporating Minecraft into a cloud-based Blue Mars with facebook and Xbox-live integration and controlling it the whole thing with Kinect would be the greatest thing ever. Get it all out of your system.

The problem isn't that people have to download a client, which isn't even that large as software goes...people download and install software all the time, it's just that the people interested in virtual worlds are already in them. Similar to how MMORPG's have leveled off.

As for controlling a virtual world with Kinect, that's a just plain dumb idea. What do people do when they log into SL....they chat...mostly with text. They going to wave their hands around to input text? And another thing, many people log into SL for long periods of time..hours. Are they going to stand up and wave their body around for hours? I don't think so.

You've always been dismissive and ignored Sony...but they have more virtual world/MMO/motion controller experience than Microsoft does.

While I agree that early on, Sony's Home on the PS3 wasn't very interesting. (I was in the closed Beta, remember), the Home of today is not the Home of yesterday. Aren't you one of the people who says we shouldn't be comparing Blue Mars to the SL of today but the SL of the Beta 6 or 7 years ago? There's plenty of people...even regulars (just like SL) in Home.

[Hamlet Au]

"incorporating Minecraft into a cloud-based Blue Mars with facebook and Xbox-live integration and controlling it the whole thing with Kinect would be the greatest thing ever"

Ahahahaha I'm tempted, thanks for the idea. I don't doubt Sony Home has *some* kind of active user base, but Sony is incredibly vague and evasive about the user numbers, so my only conclusion is it's small.

"the people interested in virtual worlds are already in them... As for controlling a virtual world with Kinect, that's a just plain dumb idea. What do people do when they log into SL....they chat...mostly with text."

Yes, but as you just suggested, the people currently in Second Life are those already interested in virtual worlds (enough to get past the learning curve, graphics requirements, etc.) The future strategy to think about is this: What about all the *other* people who are potentially interested in an MMO/virtual experience as evidenced by their other online behavior? About 15 million people were at least interested enough in SL to download the software. About 200 million people play a social game that has significant MMO/virtual world-type qualities. Those are the people to think about.

So with Kinect, consider not what existing Second Life users are doing in SL now, but already popular activities that could be deployed in SL with Kinect. First up: A dance game with MMO features. Dancing games have had a huge audience in recent years. There's a Korean dancing MMO called Audition Online which claims 300 MILLION registrations. (Which likely means something like 3 million unique actives, which would still be fricking huge.)

[Extropia DaSilva]

If Microsoft can be said to have done one thing right, Xbox Live is surely it. Remember how Rosedale told us SL would endeavour to be fast, easy and fun? Well that is Xbox Live to a T. If the accessibility and simplicity of Xbox Live could be combined with the, ambition, sophistication and flexibility of Second Life, that would make something truly brilliant.

[Extropia DaSilva]

If only we could use Kinect, when my primary typed away on the keyboard I would mimic that movement by pantomiming typing, and you would know I was about to say something in chat! Wow!!

Oh...hang on....

[Arcadia Codesmith]

For Kinect or similar technologies to have an impact in Second Life, we NEED robust physics and lag-free connectivity (possibly through pre-caching entire regions).

Developing action games in SL in its current form is like having a pillow fight in a pool of molassas.

Social media development and a browser-based client would integrate well with avatar load enhancements and a smart events calendar to make live music and other events a killer app. I envision a Facebook/Twitter flash mob descending on a spur-of-the-moment jam session by a popular band.

But to get there, you've got to make it ridiculously easy for both the musicians and fans to get to the action. That doesn't mean curtailing things for those of us who like to pop the hood and get our hands greasy, but it does mean streamlining the experience for those who don't.

There are market opportunities out there, and the SL platform is right on the cusp of being able to grab them. I hope they prove my innate pessimism towards all things Linden to be completely wrong.

[Orca Flotta]

"the people interested in virtual worlds are already in them."

EXACTLY!
That was the only comment that made some sense yet.

And furthermore, why are you all so concerned about growth anyway? Putting even more stress on LL's barely functional grid? For millions of poor sods who don't even get the idea of virtual worlds, who don't want real immersiveness, who just want some light entertainment without doing anything for it?

You are a useless person. Why do you even think SL needs you?

# Entering a VR from your cellphone? Or a netbook or any other lightweight hardware?

LMAO!!! If you can't spare 10 minutes to do something useful in VR, why even bother logging in at all?

# You want facebook-ish social networking?

Use damned facebook for it!
(between us: SL is as anti-social as it gets. Most hardcore SLers are seriously socially handicappped, have bad manners and terrible attitudes. SLers don't give a fock about others, they are busy building a world! Let's hope it stays like that.)

# You don't have the time to immerse in a VR? Not enough time to learn how to navigate that super complicated viewer?

Then let it be! What are you doing here anyway?

# You want the "game" to give your virtual life some "purpose"?

Go, play games then! Kill others, level up, be a winner. But stay the feck away from virtual worlds!

[Orca Flotta]

"After reading the report, I'm more convinced than ever that browser-based access to virtual worlds in conjunction with social network integration is the most credible light at the end of the tunnel."

No, these are exactly the two attributes least needed in SL. Period.

I never felt the AD/HD urge to multitask on such a level. While I'm in SL I'm in SL. Using the web for referencing is easily done on the side. And my social network is in RL, so I don't access it while I'm in SL.

In SL I'm my avie, I don't know and have no relation to anything or anyone outside of SL.