New World Notes

SL Can Grow to Have 5-20M Users (If Deployed Much Better)

Second Life cannot survive as a niche, as I explained last week, but how large can it really be? I'd argue that SL stands a reasonable chance of growing from its userbase of 800K or so, up to 5 million users as a 3D standalone client, and up to 20 million or even beyond, if it can run on new platforms.

Sound too bold? Here's why I think that:

• About 12-15 million people have created an SL account and installed and ran the client at least once. Every month, about 300K new people still create an account.
• The 3D virtual chatroom IMVU, which is also a 3D downloaded client, has 3 million monthly unique users.
• World of Warcraft, another online world with a 3D client, has 11 million monthly subscribers.
• The Sims 3, another 3D client lead developed by Linden Lab's current CEO, has sold about 5 million copies.

So just on these datapoints alone, we're looking at a potential growth market for SL activities between, let's say, 3-10 million. Now, some SLers will inevitably respond, "But Second Life is not a chat room like IMVU or an MMO like WoW." This response deeply misunderstands how Second Life is actually used by many or even most of its existing user base. Here’s why:

SL Survey: Do Use a Mesh Viewer? Buy Mesh Content?

Mesh has been live in Second Life for about a month, so now's a good time to ask SLers how much it's impacted your in-world activity. Do you now use a mesh-enabled viewer? Do you buy mesh-based content? Click below to take a survey asking those very two things.

The idea for this survey comes from veteran content creator Damien Fate, who are among the many developers now making and selling mesh. So this survey, as he puts it, will provide "good figures for mesh creators to go by to see what share of the market can view their goods." So click below to take the mesh survey:

What Can SL Content Creators Do With Their Works and Their Land When They Need to Temporarily Leave SL?

Last week I noted news that master steampunk builder Sextan Shepherd had left Second Life and taken his glorious builds with him. I recently heard from Mr. Shepherd himself, and turns out the departure is not as stark as it originally seemed: It's true he's taken his talents to an OpenSim-based project and one in Unity, but he does plan to return to SL, perhaps in a few months. However, his temporary departure still illustrates a difficulty for content creators who need to take a break from SL for whatever reason -- what do you do with all your investments while you're gone?

"I haven't left SL," as he tells me. "It's just that I don't have more time to come in SL... I was asked to work on an OpenSim project, and I have accepted, it's a lot of work (no steampunk stuff this time) and I start a brand new project on Unity3D too." That in mind, he had to do something with his SL content while he was away:

"So as I had no more time for SL and my brand business, I have decided to give up the shops and my land. Unfortunately I have deleted my blackbox (needed for the Marketplace) too, so you can't find my stuff anymore. Neither in-game or on the Marketplace. That's mainly the reason why people thought that I have left SL for a dramatic reason. But no. It's just a question of time, and I may be back in-game in a few month maybe."

The thing is, I imagine other content creators often find themselves in a similar place, with no easy means for temporarily lifting up stakes. For beyond the content jobs Sextan took, he also has some excellent real life news that makes being in Second Life seem secondary:

Hey Facebook & Google: If Real Names Are So Important, Why Is Pseudonym-Friendly Twitter Still Growing?

Here's a really good analysis of Twitter by Mathew Ingram at GigaOM, which points out how the microblogging social network, which now has 100 million users, treats user identity.

Unlike Facebook or Google+, which have been pushing a real names-only policy, Twitter doesn't give a rip:

In a recent open house at the company, CEO Dick Costolo talked about how the service doesn’t really care what your real name is — all it wants to do is connect you to the information that you care about. And if that information happens to come from a “real” person, then so be it; but if it comes from a pseudonym, then that’s fine too.

On Twitter, no one cares if you're just an avatar. Google and Facebook execs have recently argued that real names are important, to curb bad behavior. But Twitter's architecture curbs bad behavior too: Jerks who post Spam, hate, or flames lose followers, or can be blocked entirely. And since Twitter influence depends on earning followers, users have an incentive to be civil and Tweet interesting things, whether they're using their real name or not:

Cull TV, New User-Curated Music Video Streaming Service from Linden/SL Alum, Launches With New Features

Cull TV, a new, user-curated music video streaming service from Linden Lab and Second Life alum, recently launched. Basically, Cull Pandora-fies music videos on YouTube and Vimeo, but unlike Pandora, the playlists are created by users, and you know, you get videos to watch with your tunes.

Largely the brainchild of Katherine de Leon (once known as Iridium Linden) and John "Eddie Stryker" Hurliman, who did great innovation on OpenSim, it recently went out of beta and launched, with some cool new features and functionalities added to the mix since then:

• "We've got music blogs making Cull channels," Katherine tells me. "For example, check out http://cull.tv/sr to see a channel from foryoungmoderns.com. Media companies are making Cull channels too. Check out Big Hassle's channel at http://cull.tv/sq.
• "Users can now turn the Auto DJ on and off, which allows them to curate in a more flexible way. Cull also features many channels that constantly update with trending music videos. Watching these channels (New Music Television, One-Time!, Beat Axxis, Audio Bulwark, Dirty Sticky Floors, and Dead Fingers Talk) are a great way to discover emerging talent."

Where to start? Why not try the Eclectic Method channel, full of geek-friendly beats and videos. I'm making a cool Cull list of my own, and will share that soon here.

Why Are So Many SL Fashion Designers Without a Web Marketplace Presence?

The official SL forum has a new post, "Iris Ophelia's Foolproof Guide to Getting What You Want", written of course by NWN's longtime style columnist, and it's a noobly-friendly guide for the virtual fashionista just starting out. She also makes an important point relevant to the broader economy:

The Second Life Marketplace [website] is a great starting point [to find stuff], but many designers haven’t listed all the creations there yet and some don’t have Marketplace storefronts at all [emph mine].

That's seriously astounding. An in-world store isn't exposed to or easily shared with the rest of the Internet, they're hard to find even when you're in SL, and above all, a virtual store requires paying someone for land. Whattup widdat, land-locked fashion entrepreneurs?

Deus Ex's Giant & Invisible Air Ducts Tickle My Immersion

I'm still loving Deus Ex: Human Revolution, but every time I'm about to crawl into an air duct, I think something like this:

The proportion seems so comically off, it may not totally break my sense of immersion, but it definitely gets tickled something fierce. (Sort of like those AIs and the invisible elevators.) Recommendation to Eidos Montreal: Make a Half-Life: Opposing Force-style expansion pack in which the hero has to track down the building contractor responsible for making all the worlds' giant, invisible air ducts, and take him out. Just be sure to set the final boss fight in an air duct.

How to Comment on NWN Without Making Multiple Copies

Here's how to comment on New World Notes without leaving multiple copies of the same comment:

• Write your comment, click Post.
• Wait 10 seconds. For the love of Linden, do not click Post again!
• Is your comment not published? Wait 10-20 more seconds. Look at another browser tab, play a level of Angry Birds, whatever.
• Still not there? Copy your comment to the text buffer so you don't lose it, then refresh the post. It could very well be there now.
• If it's still not there after refreshing the post, then and only then re-post the comment!

For whatever reason, Typepad has recently made reader comments on a post slow to publish (or more precisely, slow to display), so instead of getting impatient and clicking Post again (and publishing multiple copies) just be patient. And feel free to test this method in this very post.

Last Week's Top Posts: Shaker & SL, Krugman & Bitcoin, Lynch & DynaFleur, Linden & Lost Revenue, Mesh & Bugs

Tech Culture & Gaming Hits:

• Nobel-Winning Economist Paul Krugman on Bitcoin: "Um, No"
• Shaker, Valley-Hyped Startup, Aims to be "Second Life, Except You’re Yourself"; I'm Not Convinced It'll Succeed

Second Life highlights:

• Second Life Has Lost Over 650 Sims & $1 Million in Yearly Revenue in 2011; This is Why SL Can't Survive as a Niche
• Ophelia's Gaze: The Bug in Second Life's Mesh Viewer That Keeps Me From Blogging About Second Life Mesh
• Paris Bar Designed by David Lynch Reminds Me of an Art Installation in Second Life
• Want to Improve the Way SL Mesh Works With Avatars and Avatar Fashion? Vote and Follow JIRA SH-2374
• Kirstens' Viewer Development Could Continue - If Kirstens' 8500 Users Donated $6 Each!

This Sunday, Ask SL Style Expert Janine "Iris Ophelia" Hawkins Your SL Fashions Questions

This Sunday the 18th, New World Notes style columnist Janine "Iris Ophelia" Hawkins will be on SL's official forums taking questions on metaverse style. She's been featured in the New York Times, presented at New York's the Fashion Institute of Technology, and now you can ask her anything about SL style. Click here for more info, and on Sunday from 9am-4pm SLT, click here and also here to read her answers and post your questions.