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Wednesday, November 16, 2011

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Ziki Questi

"As Second Life user hours continue to decline, Second Life's Facebook page continues to grow ... People are logging into SL less because they're engaging with SL through Facebook..." Please, anyone with any knowledge of basic Statistics understands that correlation does not imply causation. This is not how to interpret data.

Hamlet Au

Ziki, that's why I said "likely". As in, suggestive of a possible explanation, though not definitive. Check out the Wikipedia entry on the concept you're citing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

"Correlation does not imply causation"... is a phrase used in science and statistics to emphasize that correlation between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other (though correlation is necessary for linear causation in the absence of any third and countervailing causative variable, AND CAN INDICATE POSSIBLE CAUSES OR AREAS FOR FURTHER INVESTIGATION; in other words, CORRELATION CAN BE A HINT.) (emph. mine)

Pathfinder

I wonder if there's any way to tell if all these new fans are SL users.

@Ziki, in other news: http://bit.ly/tb4anq

Oil Painting

Hey just a thought, you would probably get more readers if you interviewed controversial people for your blog. I really like this article. It contains a lot of useful information.

Hitomi Tiponi

'As Second Life user hours continue to decline, Second Life's Facebook page continues to grow' - that is because people very rarely 'unlike' anything in Facebook, they just let it languish. Also often people just abandon or deactivate Facebook rather than deleting their account - if you only deactivate (and Facebook pleads with you to do that) then you retain all your memberships of groups etc.

Here's some facts about the official Blizzard World of Warcraft Facebook page:
- In May 2011 it reaches 1,000,000 likes (source http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/blog/2251122
- Today it has 1,490,000 likes.
A greater rate of growth on Facebook at a time when World of Warcraft is losing active subscribers.

Johnny alt

Correlate these causative factors ..

1. High tier cost = low concurrency
2. High tier cost = Stagnant sim sales
3. High tier cost = low interest in SL

Secondlife is an astounding piece of technology, shame it's priced wrong for proper growth. LL make 80miliion bucks a year but they should be making a billion ! They've got the price all wrong, so wrong

Ziki Questi

@ pathfinder hahaha! Exactly :)

foneco zuzu

Facebook was, as Hi5 before, My space and others, old news!

Pussycat catnap

@Johnny alt:

"Correlate these causative factors ..

1. High tier cost ="

http://www.gridsurvey.com/

***********
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful house!
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful wife!

Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
Into the blue again/after the money's gone
Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.

Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...
**********************

Short version:

SL today is as active as it always has been, just "your circle of friends" has moved on.
- People go, and just as many new ones come.

Johnny alt

Same as it ever was - How is that a good thing
Same number join as leave - How is that a good thing
Same as it ever was = stagnation

There's a hole in LL's bucket and they need to fix it dear Pussycat

How can LL fix it - Lower tier cost

Secondlife is failing to reach it's full potential. I don't see that as a good thing. Tier costs are stifling the widespread use of this amazing virtual world technology.

Johnny alt

p.s. @Pussycat

Note : It's not the same as it ever was, it's actually declining.

User hours down
Grid size down
concurrency down
Economy down

Tier costs are the cause of the stagnant and weak interest in SL. It's not that people don't want SL it's that tier costs means they can't afford it

SL would boom if LL reduced tier and found the sweet spot

Pussycat catnap

Yeah -EVERYBODY- says its going down.

Which is why I linked gridsurvey - the facts.

Just like Republicans can scream about 'death panels'... you can get anybody to believe anything if you scream it enough - but that doesn't make it true.

gridsurvey says its not going down. Its just about perfectly stagnant.

That's maybe not great, but its not bad either. SL just -is-.

Its the 9-5, the stable thing. You clock in and clock out - but it ain't changing anymore. They can keep on making a paycheck out of it, as can we users - but its not going to get bigger, and might not get smaller for some time.

Just in case you missed it the first time:
http://www.gridsurvey.com/

Same as ever.

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