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Monday, January 02, 2012

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Hitomi Tiponi

Predictions for 2012 from Gypsy Rose Hitomi:

Tech - this is the year of the resurgence of Microsoft as it links together cloud, apps and OS, and tablets running on Windows 8 gain market share. Amazon also help to squeeze out Apple's iPad as the trend is for tablets to get smaller, but SIRI moves into other Apple devices. Even so there will only be modest growth in tablet sales overall, and power netbooks at the same price as tablets start taking market share back.

VWs - a move to providing options for running these through the cloud will develop as demand grows for them on mobile devices. SL suddenly starts to grow (real growth, not playing with figures) in the second quarter as a variety of improvements that are currently in development arrive. No major competitor to SL appears but loads of 2.5D VWS appear and fail, until Facebook decides to move into 3D 'rooms' towards the end of the year. LL launch two new products, one flops and the other is quite a success - neither of them link in with SL. In the second half of the year bids for LL are again being mentioned.

Gaming - more of a blurring between games and VWs as customisable elements become more common. Cloud gaming isn't a big success yet, particularly as interfaces are not suitable for mobile devices. Overall sales of gaming consoles stagnate.

foneco zuzu


Death of desktop computers will be announced once again.
Same with Second Life and V1 viewers.
on 2013 we will speak again!

Joey1058

This is going to be the year that introduces believable, interactive AI and agents. Too early yet to reside on personal handhelds, they will be on company servers and the cloud, like Siri is currently. They will flourish in 2D, 2.5D, and 3D environments.

3D tech like SL will always be dependent on viewers and plug-ins. As HTML 5 continues to stablize, X3D and X3DOM worlds will start to make an appearance, driven by 2.5 web gaming.

And around mid to late 2012, AR see-through tech will FINALLY be stable enough for the general public! Prices will drop to affordability during the 2012 Christmas season.

Pussycat Catnap

I predict another virtual world will come along that will 'kill SL', and lots of people will proudly say so, some major content folks will even switch over, only in the end... it won't. Maybe it'll be called Green Venus. ;)

I predict seeing the first attempt at a full multi-sim MMO with NPCs and questing using the features we saw in Linden Realms.

I predict that LLs will finally turn off the viewer-1 APIs for inventory and search, there will be some panic, and then Henri-B will patch the V-3 APIs into V-1 and that crowd will continue on thinking they're on the faster viewers thanks to actually running V3 under the hood. ;)

I predict that Firestorm will make it to FUI, Phoenix users and Firestorm users will jump over, and think all the great new customizable UI features they have were made by the Firestorm team and not present in 'that horrid sidebar viewer' (the doesn't even exist). ;)

I predict land prices will fall even further. I believe that we've not yet hit rock bottom because there is no bottom other than 0.

I predict we will see the death of a huge portion of the pre-2009 entertainment/social/arts/community/education/commerce builds. This will be driven by marketplace killing off the last sources of in-world funding. Only newer locations that never learned the old tricks will survive - by finding some new way to merchandise in-world content. We might even see people start getting away with charging a fee to enter the lot... Once its the only trick left in the bag, people will be ale to use it... but then SL will lose its appeal to those who spend money but pretend its free.

Coupled with the above, I predict somebody will find a way to viably support a social venue without selling anything inworld... Driven by the pressures of MP...

Pussycat Catnap

"Death of desktop computers will be announced once again."

They already died in 1996. You just think that's a desktop in front of you. Its really a tabletop computer. :D

Ignatius Onomatopoeia

VWs: Continued erosion of Education market in SL. More OpenSim projects will emerge, as well as the failure of one or two large OpenSim hosts as more colleges link their local OS servers with hypergrid technology.

Tech: This will be the year the campuses first have to adapt to students bringing tablets in as their primary computer. Declines in desktops will spread to faculty, and some of them will begin switching to tablets. Blackboard will start to lose more customers to free apps doing the same thing, and both trends will make the Chronicle of Higher Ed.

Aeonix Aeon

1. I suspect 2012 will be the death of the polygon.

2. No need to come up with any other predictions, because #1 pretty much obliterates everything else that will be done this year.

Metacam Oh

"Second Life User Cashes in Virtual Island to Lease Real Toyota Prius."

Dirk Grantly

Tech, and in re Ignatius Onomatopoeia's comments...

The tablet has already arrived for academics. And it struggles to replace the desktop, or the laptop for sure.

Over the past year, I have noticed colleagues coming to meetings more and more with iPads (specifically), and struggling to make them do what laptops (or netbooks) do so well - store files as files and not as specific app data within a specific app; not rely on a cloud or wifi to access the information or to store information (wifi and clouds aren't everywhere or always reliable with campus IT policies); and my personal list goes on...

So I also predict that tablets will continue to invade academia but will ultimately stall as people still struggle with wanting/needing a good old-fashioned file folder tree (remember the age of most academics and their first computer experiences... dos/windows 3.1 & "a folder for everything".) I also think they will stall as a do-everything tool as many still think that "writing papers" = "sitting in front of a screen with a keyboard".

At best they will become the too-big-for-my-pocket organizer and tech status symbol as in "you got the IT department to issue you an iPad? How'd you manage that? I still have a 486 desktop as part of the campus evergreening program...".

I predict that students will still use laptops or netbooks (heavy on the mac because of its "coolness") for similar reasons as above - store files locally, keyboard input.

VW... well, even though I am an educator that uses and publishes VW research, I think VW's will reach a steady state of use, leveling off. VW's are not a game like Skyrim (so not attracting the gaming crowd) and the buy-in cost in terms of learning how to get in, setting up an avatar and learning the interface is still too steep for course by course use - unless the course is specifically about virtual world interface.

elizabeth (16)

is anecdotal but for xmas 3 teens in our extended family, 16, 17 and 19, wanted a laptop. they already got txt phones. they didnt want a tablet or a g phone. they all on minecraft as well as facebook

my mum has got a tablet. she uses all the time. she likes reading the news and sewing and embroidery tutorials and stuff like that

so my prediction is that both kinds will grow but maybe be a division on age

Arcadia Codesmith

The success of Skyrim and Star Wars: The Old Republic will demonstrate that people aren't done (as has been loudly and repeatedly declaimed) with immersive virtual worlds, fantasy and science fiction settings, MMOs and the subscription-based revenue model.

On the other hand, older games will continue to explore free-to-play as a way to extend their lifespans, Dark Age of Camelot being a prime candidate.

Ultima Online will continue to run. Somehow. Lord British will express more wishes to revitalize the franchise. EA will express more wishes for Lord British to shut up. Quietly and behind the scenes, EA will be exploring ways to revitalize the franchise.

I expect (well, maybe "hope for" is a better choice of words) a major convergence of social game and MMO features into a title that appeals both to immersive MMO players and casual social players. If the new game has sufficient depth, it'll be the breakout hit of the year; if it's too shallow, it'll flop about for a bit and quietly expire with little fanfare.

Pussycat Catnap

"I predict that students will still use laptops or netbooks (heavy on the mac because of its "coolness") for similar reasons as above - store files locally, keyboard input."

Walk into some hip cafe's in San Francisco these days, and look for the iPads...

Oh wait, they're not there. The Macbooks are. In droves. Followed by the odd PC user playing a video game at Starbucks...

BUT... head a few miles down the road to the suburbia that's in between 'artsy San Francisco' and 'geeky Silicon Valley', and it flips. iPads and Android tablets everywhere, with the odd Macbook, and occasional netbook or rare PC.

IF the tablets can get over this Cloud addiction and give people their files before the hype wears off, they'll win. Otherwise, they'll go to the same place netbooks have; an option for when your bookbag is too heavy for that gaming laptop.

We have a brand new netbook at my house. It was so cheap, it was the best option to sit behind the TV and stream videos... I could see buying the new Nook that's a semi-tablet... but a full blown tablet is overkill on price for a crippled computer.

The new Nook and Kindle are the right models: eBook readers with a little bit more in case you want to browse the web or make a note of something while reading on the road, but conceding that the format is not a replacement for your full computer.

Joey1058

"1. I suspect 2012 will be the death of the polygon.

2. No need to come up with any other predictions, because #1 pretty much obliterates everything else that will be done this year."

*O-o* You're joking, right? Don't tell James Cameron that. Or the rest of Hollywood, for that matter!

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