How SL Can Gain New Users But Not Gain User Concurrency

In a recent interview, Linden CEO Rod Humble claimed new SL users have grown by 40%, which caused Botgirl Questi to wonder how that can be the case, when SL's peak concurrency has remained flat at around 70,000. "What am I missing?" Well, possibly this: That concurrency is not a true and fully accurate reflection of user activity in Second Life for at least two reasons. Short version: Most new users tend to be from a younger 20-something demographic who have lighter in-world activity patterns, and because of SL's very international userbase, concurrency will naturally rise and fall as one time zone's users log in, while another time zone goes to bed.

I say "possibly", because now that Linden Lab will no longer publish monthly unique user stats (the industry standard), we're left with a lot of guesswork. However, in the same time period Hubmle reported SL was seeing record new user growth (over the 2011 holiday period), it's worth noting that SL made it back on Nielsen's Top 10 chart. Which suggests that this new user growth does seem to be happening.

Comments

[shockwave yareach]

So now we have to just trust LL to be honest and to tell the truth?

Why should I do that when they've repeatedly shown me nothing but the opposites of honesty and truth? I had hopes that the lab would turn around with Rod coming in, but it appears he's no different than the CEOs before him. "Customers want last names and other stuff? Bah, we know what they want better than they do..."

[Ezra]

Rod's talking about new user registrations. Whether it's up or down 40% it doesn't matter when attrition is still 99%.

I think Rod needs to abandon being proud of the new user registration metric. He's been boasting it half a year now but its time to pay attention to the rest of the conversion funnel that leads towards long term users. That's the only way concurrency counts will climb towards threatening to break six digits again.

[Wizard Gynoid]

sorry. i don't buy it. it is more likely that retention of new signups is extremely low. the Lindens know this to be true, and this is demonstrated by the fact that they have just changed the way the Welcome islands work, attempting to block griefers from confronting the vulnerable noobs. secondly, it is also likely that existing users are leaving, offsetting the new signups. as you mention above, the Lindens have recently blocked access to the monthly unique user stats. it seems likely that the concurrency stream may also soon be deactivated so that we won't be able to deduce the truth. Concurrency stats can be viewed at Tateru Nino's site here: http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/sl-statistical-charts/

[Nalates Urriah]

...and all those that think LL isn't bright enough to figure out how to do anything right... now think they fooled Nielsen.

[Tateru Nino]

"SL's concurrency has remained flat at around 70,000"

Error. Second Life's concurrency has remained flat at around 50,000.

Unless you mean *peak* concurrency, which is not flat.

[Dartagan Shepherd]

50,000 concurrency is less than the population of Sandusky, Ohio.

They were particularly bored over the holidays in Sandusky and registered tens of thousands of unused avatars, which resulted in a 40% increase in signups.

Or, logins may have been broken at choosing a last name, resulting in many people having to register repeatedly, causing filling out registration forms to become a proper addiction.

Or Newt Gingrich grew weary of looking for threesome action in SL and redirected his constituents feedback to the Second Life registration page.

[Tateru Nino]

Oh, they show every sign of being real signups alright. As for concurrency, you can't practically compare it to a population that exists within a single time-zone.

Concurrency levels are a small percentage of active users. Generally speaking, the higher the concurrency is, the smaller that percentage becomes - though there is no way to predictably map from one to the other. They can vary independently because of external circumstances.

[Connie Arida]

Alt's

[Orca Flotta]

Talking strictly selfish now: How does a higher concurrency or more signups make my SL better? Stuffing more and more unproductive ADHS facetwitter noobs on already croaking servers won't improve on crashes, that's for sure. How does LL coming up with new not SL related products make our existing SL any better? Does the new petting zoo help me during my SL events?

Did I sign up for a lame ass amusement park?

Now thinking for LL I'd guess just giving them their second name back would help the noobs to feel more welcome and at home right from the start. And would spare the rest of us from being bothered with silly display names and other humbug.

Do we really need to work against and around the system to still have a second life as it was supposed to be? Will LL ever grasp their own product?

[foneco zuzu]

How much do i need to say this?
Try Open sims!

[Pussycat Catnap]

@Orca: More people is more community. SL is a communal affair. If you don't want peeps, get a flash-drive copy of Open Sim, turn off your internet, and have fun.

[Pussycat Catnap]

"How much do i need to say this?"

Apparently as a comment to every single blog post - on point or not. ;)

[Hamlet Au]

OpenSim fans have been recommending OpenSim for years, but unfortunately, its userbase has not significantly grown (if it hasn't actually shrunk.)

Concurrency thingie fixed.

[Ajax Manatiso]

After posting so many times that showing a vampire on the main page, and advertising "be a vampire" led to kids joining, hoping it was Vampire World, then logging off forever in disappointment. Finally they have taken my suggestion and have normal avis on the main page -- and a return of the words "Your World, Your Imagination." I will be submitting LL my bill for marketing services shortly.

[IdontKnowitAll]

Fudged concurrency numbers...half priced premium accounts...everything is juuuuuuuuuust fine...or is it?

[elizabeth (16)]

"Apparently as a comment to every single blog post - on point or not. ;)"

hamlet should send his advertising rates card

jejejjeje (:

[Orca Flotta]

@Orca: More people is more community. SL is a communal affair. If you don't want peeps, get a flash-drive copy of Open Sim, turn off your internet, and have fun.
------------
You got me wrong, Pussy. If I wanted to live a hermit's life I'd switch to OSG but I'm a social creature. My friendslist goes from here to the moon and ... blah blah. I don't have anything against more customers in general. The thing is just that LL can't even manage the keep the grid working satisfactory for the people that are already signed in.

Sorry, the boat is full.

And about questionable promo stunts like the wilderness thingy, I guess people who are truly interested in virtual worlds won't need such crap to join SL. Once they tried it out and are clued up about how stuff works they are informed enough to decide for themself to go premium or not.

[Tateru Nino]

@Connie The alts notion doesn't hold water. All evidence points against it.

Orca: "How does a higher concurrency or more signups make my SL better?"

Because Second Life is not self-sustaining at its current population levels. It needs to cross a certain mark before that happens (both in quantity and types of users).

So, managed right, higher median concurrencies and more signups can make all of our SL experiences better.

And yes, fixing the boat is one of the key parts of that management.

[Krinkles Q Klown]

Note: astounding growth! With absolutely no proof to back up the CEO's assertion.

Stability pledged as the Q1 objective. Q1 has seen continued instability due to "scheduled" maintenance with no schedule published. First it's hardware maintenance. Then it's DB maintenance.

@Tateru Nino - When, in all your SL virtual life, have you *ever* seen it "managed right"? I've been active in SL for 5 years.

These guys are in The Big Rut. They've been trying to get out of it but it permeates every aspect of the business.

They might manage to keep going for a time on their capital and cash flow. But the final step is always the same: Death Rattle (assimilation or toes-up).

[Tateru Nino]

The "growth" is correct and verifiable. It just may not mean what people thinks it means.