Second Life Sim Loss Seems to be Slowing (But Fast Enough?)

Ener Hax crunches the numbers and reports that Second Life private sim loss seems to be slowing (as her chart above suggests), leading her to wonder: "Will there be some point, maybe next year, that Second Life sees a private sim growth rate of zero?"

Hint: probably not.

The problem is the slide in sims, while no longer steep, is still significant, as you can see by her own numbers:

The first 41 days of the year [2013] saw the same 8.4 daily loss rate as 2012... as of july 23, 204 days into the year, this rate is 4.9 sims per day.

(This is probably why Linden Lab restored its 50% discount for non-profit and educational groups, by the way.) But here's the key problem: The loss of sims also represents a loss in users and user activity. And the less users there are, the less Linden Dollars being passed around in the economy. And the less Linden Dollars, the less landowners left who can make tier. Or to put it another way: Sim loss leads to more sim loss. So it's difficult to picture a scenario where sim loss falls to zero, let alone go into positive growth. And so once again, we must say: Saving sims won't save Second Life -- only new, active, monetizing users can.

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[Cube Republic]

yup tier is too expensive. Cheaper land would mean more content being sold. I know all the land barons will moan about my point.

[Eric]

Maybe you could support the decrease in Linden Dollar with some chart as well? Within my friends there is exactly 2 reasons for those who give up their land: 1. Those with shops make them smaller or give them up completely because of Marketplace. 2. A lot of people are unemployed in First Life because of the economic crisis and just don't have the money anymore to pay for their land. 1. will come to a halt at some point and 2. will hopefully too, once the economy recovers.
I just wish the Lindens could finally make SL work as it is. SL is just a painful mix of getting stuck, crash and lag. But the Lindens keep adding more and more features like materials, while old features are broken or perform very slow.
Btw broken, does anybody know if the NSA already has an office inside SL?

[zzpearlbottom]

https://prism-break.org/

[zzpearlbottom]

Huppps, about the link above, not at all about the topic!
Still, I would like to see surveys on Mainland!
That is where LL should focus, stop selling full sims, let landlords deal with the ones that exist already!
The problem of Sl is to many private regions and not investing much more in making mainland worth!
LL should could create full water sims around all the continents that would be free and open to all, connect those continents with channels, making sure that All mainland could be used for some that many indulge but is a market and a joy, vehicles use!
And of course, now that the rift is the hype, to not make Sl a dull empty place by decreasing LI, texture size and so much more with the justification that the rift only works over 100 fps/sec, soem that only a few can achieve!

[Metacam Oh]

The only way they'd ever get me back as a landholder is if:

1) They allowed me to host my own sim (so I can pay the proper price for a server and bandwidth)

or

2) Charged tier based on actual usage of resources and bandwidth.

Otherwise everyone is just pooling money together so Bukakke Bliss Island can have 75 people on it 24/7

[Archangel Mortenwold]

Linden Lab has begun going in the right direction by restoring the non-profit and educational discount, but it needs to go further and cut tier across the board. It is ludicrous in a depressed economy that shows no signs of ever getting better to keep prices so unbelievably high. People have much less disposable income these days, and we can't afford luxuries like Second Life anymore, not when we're struggling just to pay for basic foodstuffs. The full implementation of Romney-Obama-Care next year will decrease our incomes even more as we are charged extra tax to subsidize those affluent enough to pay for private insurance, making it even harder to make ends meet. Unless tier is lowered across the board, I don't see region loss slowing further — indeed, it'll probably pick back up again.

[Adromaw]

The Land and Business feed hasn't had a post since Tuesday, June 14th, 2011, 9:53:01 AM (EST) and the Tips and Tricks feed since Thursday, June 14th, 2012, 12:20:08 AM (EST).

Just let those anniversaries sink in and you'll possibly ponder another reason as to why things are still going that way.

[Armany Thursday]

imo the lack of Linden dollars flowing through the SL economy is not so much due to lack of new users, but more due to the never ending fundraisers they allow in-world. Relay for Life (the Linden Labs fundraiser) alone sucks 500,000 USD annually back out of the economy. That fundraiser runs year round now as well as others that are constantly ongoing. If LL cared about Second Life having an economy and a healthy variety of interesting sims (they don't), the would at least put some limits on this. How can any independent sim compete with these massive events?
If LL wants everybody to give back all the Lindens they buy with premium (charge) attached so that LL can have a huge tax donation....they really shouldn't be charging a premium on the purchase of Lindens or tier. It's a huge rip off...a charity scam imo.

[DeadShocking]

Statistical Trends based on Google Trends
https://sites.google.com/site/immersiveworldnewbiehelpdesk/statistics/statistical-trends

[Saffia Widdershins]

I'm a little confused by Armandy's comment.

RFL isn't Linden Lab's fund-raiser. It's residents raising money for the American Cancer Society (and ACS rent a single island year round, and the RFL team rent other regions for events when they need them).

And yes, there are many other fundraisers around the grid - ranging from big ones like RFL, to small ones by established nonprofits who have outreach here. There's also the phenomenon of people on the grid holding spontaneous fundraising events in supporting events in the real world - such as the Japanese tsunami or the Australian bushfires. Then there's the way residents hold events to support people they know inworld who need practical support, perhaps because illness means they need to take time off and their income is based on inworld businesses - Love Donna Flora is an example of that.

All of these events are voluntary. Creators can choose to make items for them, musicians can choose to play. Some of these events allow creatives to donate a couple of items and have a store with their things on sale full price (e.g. Fantasy Faire or the Home and Garden Expo); other have a few items sold with the creative choosing a proportion of the money to go to the charity (the Hair Fair, Love Donna Flora).

I cannot see how any of this is harming the economy - these events are adding a variety of activities, and some amazing sims. Residents who encountered some of the gorgeous sims at Fantasy Faire need take a short teleport to see the amazing environments of, for example, The Looking Glass, Cerridwen's Cauldron and Garden of Dreams. The same goes for Fashion for Life ... while the actual Relay track can be an introduction to a wealth of diverse communities ranging from elven to steampunk to tiny to motorcycle (and the occasional tiny elf riding a steampunk motorcycle - but I'm not sure he has that large a community of his ilk).

In short, I believe that the fundraisers, along with events like the Birthday and Burn 2 play a vital role in keeping the grid engaged, active and - in the case of the fundraisers - spending and supporting the economy.

Independent sims aren't really in competition with short-lived events - and there are many ways that they can create, maintain and sustain their identities. What HAS proved a huge problem for them is not fundraisers - which can boost their businesses and communities, but the marketplace, which is taking satellite stores aware from the grid in favour of a marketplace presence.

Note that I am saying "satellite stores" here. Many stores maintain an inworld presence with a main store, but have cutback on satellite stores in places such as malls at music venues and roleplaying sims. This is a real blow to independent sim owners who depend on covering their tier costs by renting spaces to businesses for satellite stores.

[Betsy]

It is Obama care not Romney. Was signed by Obama and voted on by not one Republican.

Romney said he was going to work to repeal OC but he did not win. Don't pin this mess on him.

Lower income people get free coverage to some subsidy - set up where if you make one dollar over a threshold you can lose 9 thousand in subsidy.

And broader plans - like union fought for or ones with the jobs we went into student loan debt to get -- face a 40% surcharge. So those plans will probably be gone .

But take comfort your medical records are tied to the IRS. I mean it could be the NSA-- oh wait .....

[CronoCloud Creeggan]

Loss of regions doesn't automatically mean loss of users or L$. There is thing called Marketplace, perhaps you've heard of it, it reduces the need for satellite stores. Designers love it, Fashionistas love it... region owners not so much, but they're outnumbered.

As I've said before, what we're seeing is a natural contraction from an overly bloated grid with unsustainable/unpopular regions going bye bye, but sustainable/popular ones staying. I do believe I have mentioned before that I thought it would level off.

Not everybody needs a vanity sandbox of their own.

Metacam wrote: 1) They allowed me to host my own sim (so I can pay the proper price for a server and bandwidth)

@Metacam: They are never going to let you do that so get over it. Because as soon as they did, somebody would set up their region to copy stuff that people brought in, or do other nasty things.

But LL's truest asset is the People and the Stuff, that is what makes SL the Queen of Virtual Worlds. You want to connect your own region to have both cheap land AND the SL community and content. I'm sorry, but you can't have both. Unlike the "little grids" SL has actual users to support and massive infrastructure to maintain, that costs money. Couldn't host SL on some nerds basement rack.

Metacam wrote: 2) Charged tier based on actual usage of resources and bandwidth.

Otherwise everyone is just pooling money together so Bukakke Bliss Island can have 75 people on it 24/7

@Metacam: And what's wrong with that? You want to penalize social spaces for the benefit of the anti-social oldbie sandboxers? LL knows that one of it's greatest assets is the number of users it has over other worlds. It wants to increase social activity, not decrease it.

[Ajax Manatiso]

I constantly wonder about the business acumen of Rod Humble. One of the most essential first lessons of business is that it is far easier to keep an old customer than it is to find a new customer. There seems to be little attempt to retain customers. And I agree with Metacam -- LL seems hellbent on throwing in more and more features, working or not, and further compromising the stability of the platform. The solution is incredibly obvious - Rob Humble is painfully overdue for the axe.

[Metacam Oh]

"@Metacam: They are never going to let you do that so get over it. Because as soon as they did, somebody would set up their region to copy stuff that people brought in, or do other nasty things."

@Crono, I know they are never going to do that, so there is nothing to 'get over'. For your second point about copying things, if you really want to you can still copy shit off the SL grid just as easy and illegally as you would if someone hosted their own.

"@Metacam: And what's wrong with that? You want to penalize social spaces for the benefit of the anti-social oldbie sandboxers? LL knows that one of it's greatest assets is the number of users it has over other worlds. It wants to increase social activity, not decrease it."

@Crono:Nothing wrong with that except that business plan doesn't work for everyone. When you get hosting for a website or rent a server or what have you, everyone doesnt pay one price. i don't have to pay $500 for a web site to cover Google's traffic and bandwidth do i? Not allowing me to pay for what I use, and anyone who wants to own a sim casually, cannot. I guess just rich people and people who have businesses are the only people that should have sims right Crono?

and @Betsy: Another clueless republican. Please get a clue and come back to us.

[Pussycat Catnap]

I think its less about tier and more about...

Why?

There's no reason for many of the kinds of people who used to own sims to own them now.

Why have a sim sized shop, when you can put 12,397 products on marketplace, each in 12 colors, plus fatpacks, plus copy/mod and mod/trans and copy/no-mod versions...

- For nothing.

If you want, and I think you should want, an inworld presence to showcase the best of your brand and the 'theme' that speaks to the kind of customer you want to engage with... then you don't need more than a small 512 to 2048 plot of land somewhere - mainland or estate.

And frankly... you're best limiting that to the 512 you can get for $6/month, and making sure you really show off your brand in that small store - which means half your build won't even be your product, but things like screenshots of 'the cool kids' wearing your stuff, and choice colors to set a mood that says "I speak for your community, so click this MP link and buy my stuff."

- Because almost anyone can foot the bill for a $6/month spot. And if you can't make that up in sales, then your shop, like mine, is really just a personally fun build that exists to play around in rather than sell things. :)

So... the merchants no longer need sims, nor stores of any decent size...

And that means all the smart ones have left that mall spot next to Club Cool... so now Club Cool has no funding...

But then there's still 'Drama House', that roleplay sim... The merchants are leaving this one too. Because the people who -might- buy at that shop up there at 3500m up, they aren't the ones down below roleplaying... and so they really aren't buying either... they're just being forced to do the long march before they get to the 'how to RP in our sim' rules notecard...

So that roleplay sim also has no funding...

Tier could be any value above 0, and as long as marketplace still sells product that is not rezzed in world, sims will close.

[Ezra]

@Crono "As I've said before, what we're seeing is a natural contraction from an overly bloated grid with unsustainable/unpopular regions going bye bye, but sustainable/popular ones staying."

That'd be totally convenient and even awesome for Second Life if it were undeniably true. Unfortunately that rationale is totally subjective and doesn't even pass the eye test of this blog alone given the old "Sim Deathwatch" posts, of which many if not most cited too expensive tier as the reason for closing, and many commenters expressing remorse for the sim closing.

I wonder what the results would be if the entire active user population was polled with the question "Has a region important to how you spend money and time in Second Life closed due to too expensive tier?" My own subjective guess would be that many like myself wouldn't be able to say the region, or few regions, that caused them to stay in the first place are even around anymore; and nothing as appealing has taken their place.

Wallets and feet talk louder than all though. Linden Lab isn't above Economics 101 and the Law of Demand. If region counts are ever to rise, the price has to come down.

[Krinkles Q Klown]

"Loss of regions doesn't automatically mean loss of users or L$. There is thing called Marketplace, perhaps you've heard of it, it reduces the need for satellite stores. Designers love it, Fashionistas love it... region owners not so much, but they're outnumbered."

And Linden Lab loves it as they make a commission on every sale on it. But, L$ isn't real money! It's "game tokens" and "tokens providing licenses to use content."

No matter what the TOS says, it's money. It's the same as a plastic chip in a casino. If someone pays 100 and you get 97, that's L$3 they don't have to convert which translates into a penny they don't have to pay you.

I'll tell you what loss of sims does represent. It represents a migration of paying users OFF Second Life. It's another symptom of Treadmill. LL is still marching merrily on its way to Death Knell.

Proof? Concurrency is down 26% over last year, YTD. That's fact. Most days concurrency during North American Internet Prime Time hours is below 50K. It was 64K+ in 2012.

You can nay-say all you like. The fact is, Second Life is sliding toward Death Knell and there ain't nothing users or LL can do about it. Well, LL can do something about it but it takes way more moral fiber and cojones than anyone in the company has.

[Kimberley Recreant]

The tier price for sims is an outrageous amount of RL money to pay for virtual land. Period. I don't care what Lindens say are the economics of that charge. I've been playing in combat universes/sims for 5 years. I've seen one person after another spend tons of time creating good combat meters only to battle with money to keep a sim going. Combat junkies don't tend to want to buy land. They log on and fight. Not everything is promoted by capitalism principles. But if you take a broader view, these people who log on yet don't contribute to the cost of running a combat sim, will spend money in SL more broadly. eg on guns, clothing, etc,.. Since the decline of the last combat sim I've been involved with, I'm now spending a small fraction of time in SL, and where I was spending substantial amounts on both renting and buying clothes and other goods, I'm now spending nothing. I've been in SL long enough too to see a massive decline in traffic in places other than sex sims. I take the points above about the role of SL marketplace. Still, if tier wasn't so expensive more creators would showcase their wares in SL.