SL Private Sim Loss Trends Still Remain Steady

Ener Hax has another sobering chart of Second Life private sim loss trends which illustrate (to me) why it's so important that Linden Lab's Blocksworld succeed, and why it's worth risking so much on the hope that the Oculus Rift creates another market for Second Life:

The trendlines look even more dire when you see the whole chart. At this point, the evidence is so overwhelming, it's not worth explaining yet again that Second Life/Linden Lab cannot survive on its current revenue stream or its existing userbase alone:

No, it's more fascinating to me that many hardcore users will still insist in the face of data like this that everything with Second Life is basically fine.

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[Metacam Oh]

Blockworld success will have nothing to do with Second Life longevity. Like I said previously, the price of SL sims are what they can get away with. If Blocksworld took off like Minecraft they wouldn't suddenly have an epiphany that they have been raping people with the price of a virtual island. LL is milking the dying cow, and if anything success with Blocksworld would just make them quicker to move on from the dying cow.

[Adeon Writer]

We see the private regions dropping, but I doubt their tenants are quitting SL. Where they are going should be telling.

My guess is the regions are dropping as more people find affordable alternatives like land rentals, which pack more residents in one sim.

[J MOrie]

Is it just me or did this decline start with the demise of educational discounts?

[Ezra]

I once read there was an economic relationship between supply and demand, and that the balancing factor between the two was often price. It was some crazy theory that when demand is lower than supply, lowering prices increases demand. I hear that solution isn't always possible because lowering prices could lead to financial losses, but in case of being "extremely profitable", price cutting can actually lead to more total profits even if the margins are lower.

It sounds like price cutting would help with tens of servers in Linden Lab's datacenters losing purpose every month, but possibly risky as I'm not sure if any business in history has ever solved dwindling sales by cutting prices before.

[Iggy]

I don't think educators or the lack of them had much to do with this slide.

Maybe the Lindens can open a RL bar to fund the Lab. I'd go.

[Renmiri]

Owning a sim: (if you are not a land baron or have no educational discount)
Monthly payment: $295 per month; Due at signing: $1,000

Leasing a car:
(From Forbes: 15 Unbeatable New-Car Lease Deals Under $300/Month)
*BMW 3 Series - Monthly payment: $299; Due at signing: $3,774
*Buick LaCrosse - Monthly payment: $239; Due at signing: $2,009;
*Nissan Leaf - Monthly payment: $199; Due at signing: $1,999
*Honda Civic - Monthly payment: $169; Due at signing: $2,299
Volkswagen Passat - Monthly payment: $249; Due at signing $0;
*Smart ForTwo - Monthly payment: $99; Due at signing: $1,393;

Isn't it obvious why private Sim ownership is dying ?

[Renmiri]

I'm sorry but if I have the money to own a Volkswagen Passat and no need for one that still doesn't mean I'm willing to throw the same amount of money on a luxury toy that has lag, low performance, very few tools - that come for free - and no free content. Particularly if I can get the same little sandy island on opensim and have true restricted access, on my own hosting server, which btw I pay $295 PER YEAR and is backed up and serviced by obsequiously enthusiastic cloud engineers wanting my business.

And on SL I have absolutely no hope of recouping my investment.There is not even a backup tool that works.

[Pathfinder]

Correlation does not always mean causation...

...but it's interesting to see how it all began to trend negative between 2010 and 2011...

...which is when LL laid off almost 1/3 of its employees.

[Emperor Norton]

I was just trying InWordlz and it looks like SL five years ago and the sims cost $90/month. Maybe these other grids are starting drink LL's over priced milkshake?

[Monalisa]

Exactly, correlation does not mean causation. I see a totally different reason for SL's decline:

http://www.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Likely-Tablets-vs.-PCs-Shipments.png

Mobile device sales are surpassing desktop PCs. SL is desktop based, there is no mobile client, so go figure.

[2013]

@ Emperor those other grids aren't drinking LL over priced milkshakes because NO ONE wants to make the move to InWorldz. I went, and it was empty, looks like SL of 2006, who wants that?

[Emperor Norton]

"looks like SL of 2006, who wants that?"

I hear this argument a lot of people who don't have to deal with tiers. Sure winlight day cycles looks better and there is more traffic in SL. But for someone doing a sim for a hobby winlight isn't worth 200 more a month and more traffic just means more drama.

[Issa Heckroth]

I see a divide emerging between builders and casual users. To the user, of course SL with its legacy content and thousands of users seems the better deal, but opensim is looking more and more attractive every day to builders who just want to make something/somewhere cool. The problem for SL is as the sim builders leave, so does the percentage of the population normally willing to rent a sim and fill it with stuff worth visiting, and without those people all your left with are the drama queens with a self-entitlement-complex.

I really fail to see LL logic on this one. Just bring homesteads within the price range of a normal person’s hobby budget and SL would be good for the next 5+ years. Imagine what it could do for the in world economy if everyone had a homestead to fill.

[zzpearlbottom]

Open sim is a great alternative for builders and not as old as some try to make it!
In fact some features are far more developed then on SL (Npc's, Mesh and Soon Physics!).
But fear no evil, as the truth is that most that are on open sim are still on Sl!
And a few, that do hate the use of teleport, can only be on Sl as it is the only Metaverse that has enough regions connected that allow to enjoy the simple pleasure of travelling by air, sea or land, using some but teleport!
Now it is obvious that lowering tiers is not an option, yet!
But perhaps giving premium members more m2 to adquire on mainland before moving up on tier level, now that cross sims are way better, can be a solution, to make users aware that Mainland can and is the core of Sl!