Philip Rosedale: 1 Billion VR HMD Owners Possible by 2021

Second Life and High Fidelity founder Philip Rosedale stopped by New World Notes to offer his thoughts on market adoption of virtual reality headsets, and it's a comment worth highlighting on its own:

The adoption period for a widely-desired inexpensive technology (like smartphones) to reach saturation (1 billion+) seems to now be at about 7 years. So the ramp will be between now and about 2021.

In other words, extrapolating that into a forecast, 1 billion VR headset owners within 7 years. The first iPhone model hit the market in 2007, and sure enough, in 2014, we are well over 1 billion iOS/Android smartphone owners around the world. (There's half a billion in China alone.) Virtual reality headsets (or HMDs) are being developed to sell at retail from around $100-300, so much cheaper than most smartphones. And to judge by the general "Wow" factor, anyone who tries VR is very likely to desire it.

But does that mean VR ownersip will reach a billion users in 7 years? I have some thoughts there:

From my perspective, smartphone adoption grew so rapidly because it combined an intuitive touchscreen interface with two already existing necessities -- calling/texting and web browsing. So it combined two broadly adopted technologies with a new user interface for a new, appealing, unified experience. How's VR follow that pattern? It's true that a lot of people love 3D immersive experiences, in online worlds like Warcraft and Second Life, and in hardcore games like Call of Duty -- but as I said Tuesday, this hardcore gamer population is about 100-150 million total. So I think Philip's implicitly forecast assumes that 850-900 million people will, over the next 7 years, learn to desire immersive 3D.

Yes, there's a large audience for 3D movies, though those aren't as immersive. If I'm looking at the revenue figures for 3D movies correctly, the global market for 3D movies is about 300-400 million (very rough envelope math, please correct me if I'm hugely off). But immersive 3D VR is very different an experience than 3D theater-going, so I think it's still moot whether they share the same market. (Also, if VR only becomes mass market as a passive experience, is that something VR advocates really want?) In either case, one billion VR users is far more bullish than K Zero's estimate of 83 million by 2018, and even that seemed over-optimistic to me.

Anyway, I asked Philip for more background on his forecast, and will update here when/if he replies.

Pictured: Philip Rosedale in High Fidelity via Oculus Rift.

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Comments

[Ezra]

Big projections for PC peripherals in a supposed post-PC world.

[Mark]

Smart phones facilitate use of media and communication channels that people were already using like crazy - they are the proverbial "better mousetrap". VR seems like a new media channel - it doesn't necessarily facilitate games, movies, etc. - its makes the experience *different* - the games and movies will be different. So VR is going to be competing with popular channels - that narrows its opportunity. It has some disadvantages compared to lighter weight channels - that narrows it opportunity too.

[Betsy]

All you have to do is LOOK at the photo to see that this is a pipe dream. If you pull a hood over your head while smoking that is.

And the facial expression tools his company is working on -- I laugh and smirk and giggle and roll my eyes at some things I hear in SL. No way do I want that shared.

Plus , not being a rich guy with a wife I can't have my RL turned off when I "play" in world.

I need to see around my work station and be able to make RL facial comments and gestures.

But I'm sure some things they come up with will work well and can be borrowed or sold to other VWs.

[Hitomi Tiponi]

I see where Philip gets it wrong - two words 'widely desired'.

[Arcadia Codesmith]

I don't think there's any question that it will pass the 1 billion mark eventually, though Philip's timeline is perhaps overly optimistic.

I think the best growth potential is in the convergence of current generation headsets, the smartphone and virtual retinal display technology. It doesn't need to compete with the smartphone; it extends the smartphone, and eliminates its biggest weakness -- that teeny-tiny maddenly counterintuitive virtually useless display area.

Then when you get home, you could seamlessly connect with a wireless console or PC and toggle between full immersion (for those of us who are into that sort of thing) or an AR mode that lets you play but still be aware of your surroundings.

At least 1.2 billion people worldwide are gamers and that number is expanding. You think VR will only appeal to a small fraction of the hardcore? Maybe they'll be the early adopters of the relatively bulky and crude current generation, but the tech is going nowhere but lighter, more portable, and more detailed and nuanced.

I could be wrong. Maybe nobody will want the mountains of money that are crushing the table for the company than gets this equation right. Stranger things have happened.

[Pathfinder]

Historically, the near-eye-display market is a graveyard of broken dreams.

And the more I ponder things, the more I think the future will probably belong to devices that leverage digital light field tech. Keep an eye on a weird company called Magic Leap.

The best wearable hardware is not wearing any hardware at all.

[melponeme_k]

If I started to wear that contraption on my head, my family would have me committed.

There is no way this will achieve mass consumption, it will always be the toy of the rich and the idle.

[Arcadia Codesmith]

"Keep an eye on a weird company called Magic Leap."

While they're focused on augmented reality rather than immersive VR, I think their approach is a key component for the future of both techs (which I see as complimentary, not competitive).

[Ciaran Laval]

Smartphones were an advance in an already popular technology and added more sound use cases.

VR HMD does not have anywhere near enough use cases for this sort of adoption and compared to a smartphone, it's going to be a far more uncomfortable experience.

[Lawson Sven]

Rosedale was also the guy who claimed, along with Mozilla, that the internet would be mostly 3D by 2017, Second Life being the frontrunner at the time. Three years to go until 2017 and not a sign of that being anywhere near true.

This guy says things that he often can't back up. He dreams big, but it's all a dream.

[somethingheretoidentifyorsomething]

You are right me Au! I would add, the Google Glass is first, not Oculus! Why? The whole world doesn't care much about Kinect or Oculus. They are playing candy wahtever, simple puzzle games. The Glass will be at the cell phone store and Oculus wont!

Augmented reality becomes normal via the glass, and other makers may move first but eventually someone will do it and Google already is laying the groundwork. Chrome OS and then android. Cardboard and then?

Even just immersion add-ons from third parties may be possible.

Google glass is the John the Baptist of VR! It speaks of the one to come, it is not the mirror shades but the clear glass. It will be shaded one day.
Maybe it will called the Google Mercer and offer spiritual experiences, but I doubt it because they don't prescribe to old fashioned DNAs based flesh androids and chosing robot ones! So maybe it is the Google Force? Possibly) and the Apple iMerse. Not a verse, but an immersion experience all your own and private. A Merse.

You heard it here first, so get out the VR making kits and promote your skills as a Mersemaster!

I will now go back to reading "how to predict the future, the clean method: Why I ditched the drugs" by Nostradamus.

Now I am off to study the forcasts from people more adept at this stuff. Ones with money and databases of datums.

[Caoilin]

I have yet to try Occulus, but am looking forward to doing so. The key to the smartphone/tablet success was that it moved accessing the internet from desktops and laptops to cheaper handheld devices. A lot of the growth in that realm has been in the developing world where such technologies have allowed more people to connect who could not otherwise do so.

The virtual reality domain, with headsets that will require more powerful computers is going in the opposite direction, and will probably be more of a niche market.

There are already virtual worlds that are accessible through phones and tablets, such as Minecraft and Roblox (virtual world designed for children, in which users can create their own regions with games), so my guess is that moving in the direction of making virtual worlds accessible from mobile devices is the real big future.

BTW, this is something Ebbe has talked about when speaking about the new version of SL.