Let's start this New Year, as we often do, with a New World Notes open forum for 2015 predictions on the future of Second Life, Second Life 2, High Fidelity, Oculus Rift, and virtual reality in general -- the more concrete the better, so we can definitively confirm whether they happened or not at the end of 2015.
To get the virtual ball rolling, I'll start. I think there's going to a Trough of Disillusionment around VR this year, that's going to lead to this specific thing happening:
Despite hints and rumors suggesting otherwise, the Oculus Rift will not be made available for general consumer use this year.
Why do I say that? Because the guys who run Oculus Rift are smart folks, and they're going to realize there's not yet enough VR-ready content or mass market interest even from hardcore console gamers to do a major launch. And they also know the first major consumer launch has to be a huge hit, or the market is going to sour on virtual reality in general. Instead, my guess is they'll expand their beta developer program throughout 2015, and only when they get around 2-3 million early adopters in it, will they be ready for a broader launch. Which probably puts it out to 2016. (And I will happily eat my words covered with Sriracha if the Rift broadly launches this year.)
That's my prediction -- how about yours?
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I think the for the hype cycle to begin the product has to actually have been released. We haven't even seen what the commercial oculus is going to look like. A handful of developers and bleeding edge early adopters have developer kits and you have already put Oculus at the top of the hype cycle, and the way to avoid the trough is to Not release the product? Sorry I don't see it. The hardware is ready Now, there is no reason to delay things for a year.
Oculus rift, Sony Morpheus, and whatever Microsoft is cooking up will all be out before the end of the year. Mobile VR will see more devices like the Samsung Gear VR that give an enhanced experience and most people will have at least played around with a cheap Google Cardboard device. "Second Life 2" and High Fidelity will both be out in Beta this year, but so will other Virtual Worlds including old SL all trying to attract the VR attention. The hype will not start to peak until 2016.
Posted by: Roblem VR | Monday, January 05, 2015 at 03:26 PM
Prediction, 2015: I see a man with a box on his head.
Hilarity follows on The Daily Show and everywhere outside the non-Geek universe. Hype cycle? Might last all of a week.
Posted by: Iggy | Monday, January 05, 2015 at 06:17 PM
First there is going to be SL2 hype and everybody wants to try it. Then it's time for a disappointment, because of bugs, missing features, closed-source viewer, other limitations etc. Eventually it starts to gain popularity, after LL corrects the worst design flaws (assuming, they admit them). If/when most of the residents have left SL1, it's time to shutdown the old world, to cut costs.
I'm very curious, to see, how their world model is going to be. Can we finally live without region crossing issues? What about oceans, mountains and rural areas?
Posted by: Timo Gufler | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 03:05 AM
There is a lot of virtual world software under development at the moment. You always stare at Linden Lab and High Fidelity while there is way more going on at the moment. Both Linden Lab and High Fidelity will be medium to small players. Consumers will have a huge choice in software platforms to use and worlds to participate in the next years. The potential user mass will broaden with the coming of all these new devices but there will be such large amounts of platforms to participate in that each one will end up with less users because everything will be much more widespread.
Linden Lab will make less profit with increased costs to sustain multiple platforms.
Linden Lab will be running or using WEBGL for their new platform like High Fidelity does and try to keep their users in the dark about the actual technology that drives their new platform.
Try to ask Altberg if the new version will run on WEBGL and see if he denies it.
Posted by: Leak Leak | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 06:09 AM
I predict people will stop listening to sensationalist hype and focus more on the steady, incremental and very promising progress being made on multiple fronts in virtual reality.
Well, maybe not predict. More like hope. Maybe not even hope. More like a fanciful wish.
Posted by: Arcadia Codesmith | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 07:12 AM
You can bet a good chunk of residents will be heading over leaving the old grid behind for good to sl2.0. Simple reasons it will be in cloud with very easy low end pc connections,it will offer voxel inworld building tools & of all be mostly copybot proof.
Ebbe has stated in past it's really not a option they will look into lowering the tier.
sooner or later a big push will come to relieve linden lab of the costly server side legacy or at the very lest reduce it and that will naturally take place as people migrate to the new world.
running a 30k server farm is something not required in this day & age and even the lindens have expressed this.
There will never be a return to the big BOOM and wild west if anything the grid with mesh & fashion is in its own Special Boom right now.
my analysis is the drop should stop and establish a flat level at around 15k private regions under the current environment but with 2.0 & high fidelity looming i see a loss of 5000 to 7000 regions to 2.0 in the first year after beta and why that will not be so bad is that income not be lost but moved to a different linden offering and we still might not lose those friends we had but met them elsewhere.
my best analysis will be 11k private regions followed by just 0.08 growth for 2 years then a plateau leap to between 10k to 12k depending on the actions in the future the linden take.
A smaller grid will not be so bad.
easier on costs for the lab while offering new advantages for residents depending how you want to view it.
Posted by: OU812 | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 08:04 AM
@Leak Leak Sir you don't know what your talking about do you.
Linden lab must have 100 people working on this new grid while you might know the past linden lab you do not know the new one under Ebbe!
They will not blow the one chance to show the world why they have and always will be the leader in virtual worlds.
Stop being pessimistic you might be surprised what happens when positive management takes over allowing coders & contractors the ability to add a more innovative & expressive side to the work they create that will benefit us all.
This new grid will not only be cutting edge but address a very long list of resident concerns and past limitations.
I believe in the Ebbe Linden team not as a 'fan girl'but as we can all see! he is a man that keeps his word while staying thru to what he says with a proven track record since the word GO.
This being said by me a very harsh former past critic!with this CEO the 3rd time has been the charm.
Posted by: OU812 | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 08:25 AM
@ Arcadia
Could not agree more!
Posted by: OU812 | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 08:26 AM
First up + 2 points to Arcadia :)
On OU182 points : I will certainly jump in to the new Lab offering ASAP (with the adult caveats aired before) but have no immediate plans on a perma-move. If SL is still going, why should I? Even now I visit other places so no change there.
I, too, can see the grid shrinking and if the Lab gains by cutting costs in the old whilst gaining revenue in the new, good for them. Even at 5k regions, if running at a profit, SL will still be the big fish compared to its (now existing) equivalents and with still a zillion times the content.
If I owned that I'd be more than happy. Especially if, as often claimed, the current one is on a shoestring staff as resources get moved to the NBT (not sure if I believe that) the last year has seen some pretty huge improvements, even if fortuitous in terms of all coming together at once.
If (big if of course) the Lab can keep SL running profitably And transition a large chunk of its existing users to the new offering pretty painlessly And attract this prophesied wave of head box wearing users And also bring the much mentioned mass market then...
(As for old hardware being able to use the NBT - the laptop I first signed up with is still ticking away beside my elbow, on Sing but can handle the SL viewer pretty well and while the performance and graphics may not be anything to write home about they are an awful lot better than that time 8 years ago, despite the box having been clinically defunct for a year and bursting into flames if you put the battery in and needs to feed to an external monitor. So yay on that front as well)
Posted by: shirc desantis | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 10:24 AM
The number of private regions in SL was 18,600 at the end of 2014, that was a net loss of 623 during the year as a whole, much lower than the previous two years. I'll be surprised if another 600 disappear this year and very surprised if the figure is in the thousands.
2015 will be a year of tease and talk. Second Life will move along nicely. Linden Lab's next gen world will start to make an appearance and High Fidelity will take a lot more shape but I don't expect to see anything dramatic in terms of virtual worlds this year, it's much too soon.
I expect the first VR examples that really set tongues wagging to be in games and video rather than virtual worlds.
Posted by: Ciaran Laval | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 11:05 AM
Q2 People will start to see ''come to the shiny new world'' on the log-in screen. Early adopters will try the beta, whilst content creators will offer incentives via possible discounts or free upgrades for the new grid.
The new world will be called 'Second Life'. Why change something that clearly works and is an international brand. The world map and land ownership paradigm will continue, but with the following differences: Sims will be 4096x4096 with the possibility of owner segregated continents, much like the way mainland is set up. This will be to encourage large scale communities such as the sailing groups and role players. 'Land' will be much cheaper, while the Lab will take 30% cut from content sales. Customers will be more inclined to spend big on content now they have the modern infrastructure to support more immersive experiences.
Posted by: Cube Republic | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 12:00 PM
i agree with Ciaran. Nothing much will happen this year except for 1st looks
+
for the adopters of headsets then 2015 will be the year of the newbie. Newbie will be cool. So Iggy has got it nailed. Somebody this year is going to skin their headset with plywood. They will be the coolest newbie evah (:
like maan! them 2015 games sux but heyyy !!! I got a plywood box on my head forreal babeh !! (:
Posted by: irihapeti | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 04:59 PM
@@ The Cube
You're right on most of it, not to distort your perception of reality of the land baron issue recentish in new world.
let us pay direct to lindens in new grid.
it's obviously not this again below.Heh.
================================
Anshe Chung - female escort
2004-04-18 06:58:28 note card
Hi! :-)
My name is Anshe Chung. I am a female escort in SecondLife. If you explored other virtual worlds you might know me from AC1, SB or SWG. Yes, it is me *giggles* :-)
If you are nice and generous to me like a real gentleman or lady I can be your private entertainer. I will be delighted to make you happy in many ways performing for you, providing you company during your travels or a tender massage in your home :-)
Since my timezone is PST+9 you can usually find me between 10 am PST and 3 pm PST or very late on saturday nights.
Some services I provide:
(PG rated - 500$/h)
o Escort/Travel
o Massage
o Conversation
o Playing games
o Introduction to Chinese language and culture
o Introduction to AV positioning
o Photo shooting
(M rated - you must be adult - starting at 1000$/h)
o Exotic Massage
o Love
o Cyberian Angel
o Black Mistress
o Ghost Control
Or just tell me what you like to do :-)
It is fine if you are human man or woman, both is nice. If you are alien or animal I can only provide company but not intimate service. I also speak Chinese, German and some French if you feel more comfortable in one of those languages or if you like to practise your foreign language skills :-)
I do not do RL meetings or any other service outside the SL world. Also please no snapshots while we are intimate. Sorry. This is an iron rule. However I have no problem to use third party age or gender verification services if that matters to you :-)
I am a material girl with a money fetish - this means I get very kinky if you give me a nice gift. I don't know why. It kinda happens. Just a reaction of my body getting very hot. Maybe because I feel you show me special appreciation. So many boys want to make love and have nice words, but not so many boys really give up something they cherrish. This is why I ask for a little tip when you meet me :-)
Yours
Anshe Chung
Posted by: Joshua Nightshade | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 06:01 PM
Chung you made me laugh (^-^)
Thing is if it was not for Anshe Chung Second Life would not be anywhere where it is today.
Posted by: Ahum | Tuesday, January 06, 2015 at 10:48 PM
Patience, patience. It's coming, but not just yet.
Posted by: drfran | Wednesday, January 07, 2015 at 02:29 AM
@Ahum
"Thing is if it was not for Anshe Chung Second Life would not be anywhere where it is today."
Hey could not agree more!
we might have 20 thousand more active users online at any given time,
We would only pay $75 month for a homestead like her chung alts do instead of $125 the rest of us have to pay going thru this unneeded middleman,
No land baron program 2.0 to cheat the residents this time around otherwise new grid is dead duck,
Ebbe seems to levelheaded to not repeat past mistakes (hopefully)
Posted by: Resident | Wednesday, January 07, 2015 at 06:54 AM
lol people actually think they are going to see a glimpse of SL 2.0 in 2015?
Posted by: Metacam Oh | Wednesday, January 07, 2015 at 12:54 PM
Oculus Rift will have to be released because of fears they'll lose market share to rivals who get similar products out first. It will be popular in first person shooter games, and virtual sex sites, but will be ignored by people using applications that involve texting, like Facebook, and all the social media sites. It will eventually find its niche market, and people will compare the hype which surrounded it to the hype that initially surrounded SL1.
SL2 will launch, but after initial visits, people won't return. Linden Labs will commission surveys to find out why, and learn the reason is, everyone hates their viewer. Finally they'll concede they never could get a viewer right, and allow third party viewers. People will return using the third party viewers; SL2 will become more popular, but the result will be to split the resident population, so that neither SL1, nor SL2 are sustainable.
Ebbe will decide he has to close SL1, to force residents to SL2, but the result will be a disaster, as SL1 residents flee to Hi Fidelity, or Open Sim instead. Ebbe will be fired, and a new CEO will try to turn SL2 into a competitor with World of Warcraft, albeit one with lots of brothels. This will prove very successful, and the business plan of SL2 will change from revenue based on land rentals to revenue based on ammunition sales, and pimping.
Posted by: Flashing Merlin | Wednesday, January 07, 2015 at 01:26 PM
@Resident
1. Second Life did have about 11000 concurrent logins before Anshe Chung made her interview on world wide media. After that is went to 90000 concurrent logins.
2. Anshe Chung was not the only one renting out land during that time. There were several others doing the same. Anshe Chung did show you can do business in virtual reality and there is a real economy taking place. This is what did bring all that money and investment to Second Life which is needed to sustain such a platform. Without the investment and the money it would just be There.com or activeworlds.
3. Why do you think the Atlas program is named the Atlas program? The Estates in Second Life are what holds the world together. The Estates have a political role and offer a layer between greedy Linden and renters who want to "play the game" on the cheap.
4. It is thanks to Anshe Chung and the Estates you and most people are able to own virtual property that is managed and where you receive support when you need it. And you are receiving this at a very low price. You could live on the mainland and own land there but the very large majority is not interested in that.
5. Anshe Chung and most of the Estates pay 95$ a month for a Homestead after buying it for 400$. That means the Homestead needs to rent out full for a year just to get the money from the investment back. That Homestead is not always full so make that 1.5 years. Also add the cost of staff, RL accounting, legal costs etc... and you are at 2 years before that Homestead makes a cent of profit. After that the Estate takes a profit margin of 15 to 20%. Do you mind?
The actual reason for the all the crap inside of the economy with shady deals, seperate pricing and the complete mess with tier fees is LINDEN LAB and their management who are responsible. Linden Lab has been setting up all these shady strategies for years and has been screwing residents over and over again. Anshe Chung like you can see in her advertisement above is just a player like the rest.
Anshe Chung did bring residents to Second Life and Linden Lab are the ones who have been chasing the residents away. Linden Lab even chased Anshe Chung away at a certain point. When Chung did pack up in 2009-2010 just after the homestead debacle which destroyed most of her estate Linden Lab and dirty Jack Linden gave Chung excusively grandfathered homestead islands for more than a year to build up her monster estate again.
It is these Lindens who fuck everything up all the time and not Chung or the estates. So go buy into these Lindens their new offering so you can get screwed over again.
Yeah, put your trust and your money in Altberg that seems like a wise move.
Ow look hidden little secrets, seems like your hero is so incredible trustworthy. Do a bit of digging on him you might be surprised.
http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/NITEFLIRT-INGENIO-SALESFORCECOM-EBBE-ATLEBER/San-Francisco-California/MARK-BRITTO-CEO-EBBE-ALTBERG-CPO-MARC-BARACH-CMO-INGENIO-NITEFLIRT-System-is-complet-246577
Posted by: Ahum | Wednesday, January 07, 2015 at 09:21 PM