Top 6 Virtual Reality & Virtual World Predictions for 2015 from New World Notes

I better post our VR/VW predictions for 2015 before we get any deeper into this year, or for that matter, incoming news (like this) makes them already seem outdated. Here's my favorite from our open forum:

• The Oculus Rift will not be made available for general consumer use this year. Instead, they'll expand their beta developer program throughout 2015. (Hamlet Au)
• "Second Life 2" and High Fidelity will both be out in Beta this year (RoblemVR)
• When it comes to virtual world software, both Linden Lab and High Fidelity will be medium to small players. (Anonymous)
• A large chunk of SL users will abandon Second Life for SL2, leading to a loss of 5000 to 7000 regions in the first year of SL 2. (OU812)
• "I don't expect to see anything dramatic in terms of virtual worlds this year, it's much too soon." (Ciaran Laval)
• Virtual land in SL 2 will be substantially larger (4096x4096 meters) and substantially cheaper "while the Lab will take 30% cut from content sales". (Cube Republic)

Some of these are mutually exclusive and/or subject to interpretation -- but that just means a fun debate in late December!

(But of course, feel free to civilly and spiritedly debate about them now!)

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Comments

[UCMO]

I disagree with Hamlet's prediction, I fully believe that the Oculus Rift consumer version will be available at the latest August/September of this year. The latest prototype is feature complete. The wildcard here will be if the in-house hand controller is ready to ship with the Rift...

[Cube Republic]

I hope I'm right, it would be fantastic to have large environments to enable awesome experiences in. I really feel that if prices for land were cheap, people may be inclined to splash out more on content

[UCMO]

One can have a single 4096m x 4096m region (equivalent to 256 standard size full regions in SL) in the Metropolis sim for free (if you self-host, and have a powerful enough computer), however content is seriously lacking there without a virtual economy. Another advantage is ability to up the prim allotment. Typically 45,000 or more for a single region. These large regions are great for vehicles as sim crossing lag is completely eliminated, however draw distance limitations can still result in lag, especially with fast moving aircraft.

[Ugh]

I think, I can cope with 30 percent of my income going to LL, provided there will be some system that prevents users from uploading ripped stuff. ATM about 60 percent of mesh market is occupied with non genuine content, and impossibility of taking it down is really frustrating.

[Issa Heckroth]

@Ugh - I agree all the ripped stuff is annoying *I am quite active on the SLU Ripped Mesh Police thread* but I dont see how a system where LL checks every piece of content is viable.

[Unlikely]

I highly doubt that Second Life 2 will make it to beta this year. Just because they predicted they will be done with the beta doesn't mean they will. Software projects never go according to schedule, and it is nearly impossible to predict how long they are going to take. Here's my guess: SL2 beta sometime in the last half of 2016, at the earliest.