Will the Future of VR Be Less Virtual, More Augmented?

Commenting in this fascinating thread on virtual reality hype, reader "Rin" makes some smart points:

I have to say that I think that everything that uses a big headset like the Oculus Rift is a dead end and will never achieve any big success. It might have some specific uses .. training simulations come to mind, but I just can't see it finding it's way into the big consumer market. It is just too big of a hindrance to daily life to block everything out like this and sit on the couch with this headset on. Microsoft has the much better approach there [with the HoloLens] and even when I am uncertain of how it might turn out (or if it actually be usable at all), I think it is still the more usable idea then something like the Oculus headset. To be honest, I have not yet heard even one idea about what the one big application would be that brings VR "into our lap". Even most games would not fit well with it and not everyone who plays games would like to do it this way. So the market is even smaller ... but what is there beside it that would bring it out of specific work situations and into the homes of everyone? It actually also might be going against the current trend of everything being more and more mobile. And being in VR while walking down a street might not be the most healthy thing to do ... so instead of VR I think it should be more AR - Augmented Reality. That is where I would put my money into.

So presumably, Rin would want to put her money in a company like Magic Leap, just like Google recently did, to the tune of half a billion damn dollars. I share all of Rin's concerns around VR, though I'm very skeptical augmented reality will be a better alternative:

With AR, we're still dealing with an entirely new category of hardware device that demands consumers and the larger culture on non-users drastically change their daily lives, to use it. We all know how well that went with Google Glass... or rather, didn't.

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Comments

[Rin]

It's 'her' ;) and I agree with you about being sceptical of how much augmented reality will be adopted and if it will trully be the next 'big thing' that will change our society like the internet, cellphone and smartphones have. We can never be sure about it, because predictions are after all most difficult to make about the future.

But I give it a bigger future then VR headsets as this sort of technology has many more possible appilications (at least that I can see of on the top of my head). Of course it is not like I would see those headsets to vanish and be forgoten. They will find their niche for sure and might even become somehow profitable there.

Google Glass was a interesting case. I think it is very much a great workplace tool and maybe business application and that Googles trying to push it into the consumer market was the nail into it's coffin. And one of the funny things I noticed about the video released about Microsofts HoloLens was, that they avoided to actually show the person wearing it. I don't remember seeing a picture form the front and I guess they wanted to avoid the backslash about how aweful it looks and have it go the way of Google Glass.

I still think we will see lots of AR applications coming in the very near future, but only if the systems become small enough to not be obsructive and be easily compatible with everything else we are alrady using today (the obstructive and not easily compatible with everyday life is the main reason for why I think that VR will stay in it's niche).

If AR can blend in into our daily lives and change it from within like the internet capable smartphone did, then it will be adopted within a matter of days (and AR has a MUCH greater chance for this then VR could ever hope for). But the 'if' here depends on the technology used and if it will become something to be worn like a bluetooth headset (now that is too small since it would still need a display but I still think it is a good ilustration). That would bring this technology into 'our laps' and then we will ask ourselves how we actually managed to live without it.

[Arwyn Quandry]

Whenever I think of the future and augmented reality, I think of the book Rainbow's End, by Vernor Vinge. It's a brilliant take on wearable computers and shared augmented reality. While some aspects are a little out there (like the ability to appear anywhere as a hologram), other pieces are something I could see happening in the future. In particular, the shared 'overlays' that people use which allow everyone on the same channel to interact with the same version of reality. For example, everyone watching a simulated meteor shower together, or even a bunch of people around the world watching the same meteor shower being projected onto the sky. Experiences which add to our reality as a group rather than taking us away from it seem more likely to be popular.

[Wagner James Au]

Gender fixed, Rin!

[E I Consulting]

More #3DHolographic #Virtualworlds by ex-Steam Employees http://venturebeat.com/2014/10/07/technical-illusions-shows-off-its-developer-version-of-its-castar-augmented-reality-glasses-interview/

[Mark Y]

While I basically agree with everything Rin says I think we are bound to be naive about how smoothly AR will blend into our lives. There are plenty of technical and perceptual problems with registration - its very hard to make virtual objects look like they are where they are designed to be. But I'm more intrigued by the psychological issues - if a virtual object grabs your attention then you could be nearly blind to the real world around you. Besides directing your attention, some stimuli can also narrow your attentional spotlight. Even your peripheral attention could be compromised by virtual stimuli. Your disconnect from the real world could approach that of fully enclosed HMD. At least, AR might be a lot like walking down the street while staring at your phone.

[Rin]

AR might very much turn into what Mark Y said above. It even most likely will if the design of the objects shown around will not take into account the fact that people using this would still need to interact with the non agumented reality aorund.

People will most likely still jump into it when it is presented in a workable and every-day-life acceptable way, but I also do not expect the first versions to not have some (possibly serious) problems. I also think that one of the first things the mass introduction of AR would have to deal with are ads and pop ups showing up and blocking your vision when you walk down a street.
I hope it will come with it's own Ad-block xP

All problems aside, I am still intrigued by the various possibilities there.