Philip Rosedale Forecasts Slow VR User Adoption to Start

Lots of venture funding firms have invested in virtual reality-based startups, but based on the chart above (and as reported by Re/code), investment is rather thin: "Out of 164 VCs who had invested in VR companies to date, 142 of them had done so only once." That suggests venture capitalists are seriously hedging their bets on VR, and not going all in. Philip Rosedale cautions VR enthusiasts accordingly:

“We will probably see lower adoption than everyone expects in the next year or so, but it will pick up,” Second Life founder Philip Rosedale told a group of founders. “My advice is, don’t overspend right now. Stock up for three or four years.” ... But he, like several others at the [VR company founder] event, prophesied with confidence that the nascent technology would be as transformative as the Internet or mobile phones. In the short term, he added, the winning companies will be those that leverage the new technology to “add more value for fewer people.”

Philip's first forecast on slow adoptions sounds right to me. Far as VR being as transformative as the Internet or mobile phones, that's something Philip discussed on this blog last year:

"The adoption period for a widely-desired inexpensive technology (like smartphones) to reach saturation (1 billion+) seems to now be at about 7 years. So the ramp will be between now and about 2021."

In other words, extrapolating that into a forecast, 1 billion VR headset owners within 7 years. The first iPhone model hit the market in 2007, and sure enough, in 2014, we are well over 1 billion iOS/Android smartphone owners around the world. (There's half a billion in China alone.) Virtual reality headsets (or HMDs) are being developed to sell at retail from around $100-300, so much cheaper than most smartphones. And to judge by the general "Wow" factor, anyone who tries VR is very likely to desire it.

... but as the chart above suggests, the VC funding jury is very much out on that forecast.

Image via Upload VR, annotated by Hamlet.

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Comments

[Krinkles Q. Klown]

Nice of him to give us a heads-up that the new venture likely will get off to a slow start (in other words, "Don't expect much!")

I expect the new grid to be a complete bust, particularly given the slow, steady, erosive decline of the original product.

"Concurrency in North American Prime Time down to 46,000-48,000 you say?" Why that's nearly half what it was 5 years ago!

"Caveat emptor!"