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Monday, August 24, 2015

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Eddi Haskell

Thanks for running my view on VR Hamlet. Let me offer another perspective. One of the best indications confirming a Hype Cycle is Venture Capital (VC) money. If you looks at "Virtual Reality" on the Hype Cycle, and if we make the assumption that Virtual Worlds are part of Virtual Reality (some would say they are more a part of MMO's than VR), this is another way of viewing what it happening with industry hype. There was little VC money to be had in the VR area after the rapid fall of Second Life and other Virtual Worlds after a peak of inflated expectations was reached, say, around 2008 - when Second Life stopped growing. The collapse of Blue Mars in 2010, was because of one reason -- VC money for additional growth became non-existent. This has all changed now, as VR is becoming hyped once again -- the Facebook acquisition of Oculus serving as a trigger. Witness what is happening with Project Sansar right now -- additional VC funding for its launch-- note I am calling funding from original investors in Linden Lab as new VC funding, I have no idea who is ponying up new cash for Linden Lab right now -- would not have happened without the "warm glow" given by Facebook -- and media "hype" falling in line. Let me offer one more perspective to this. Could it be that headset-based consumer Virtual Reality is beginning a journey on an entire new hype cycle -- and will ultimately fall into a trough of disillusionment once consumers fail to buy millions of these things for the 2016 Christmas Holiday season? It could happen. This is why I think the term "Virtual Reality" is too monolithic to be places on one spot on the Hype Cycle - and why anyone rightfully should view Gartner's current positioning with skepticism.

irihapeti

" when Gartner said “80 percent of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 companies) will have a ‘second life’, but not necessarily in Second Life” by 2011" "

the prediction is correct, about there being a second life for people. Just not on 3D as it turned out. People have a virtual/online life. in 2D. on FB

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