How Sansar Solves Second Life's Setbacks -- So Subsequently Won't Suit Typical SLers (Comment of the Week)

Last week's rant by my VR executive friend "Meursault" provoked some really interesting reader replies, including this one by virtual world developer Estelle Pienaar, who recently launched an SL-based game. In opposition to Meursault, she argues that Linden Lab's Sansar is addressing the problems that hurt Second Life, especially with large companies:  

It's good to have critical voices in order to make a reality check but I don't agree. I won't answer each of the arguments. I prefer to give a different narrative. Why have big companies not created experiences for Second Life?

1) You can't find it with Google. Everyone who is looking for something uses a search engine as entry portal. You can't find Second Life content on web search engines.

2) Community tools like group chat, group messages, my SL feed etc. are isolated from the web 2.0 social networks - and the other way round.

3) Scale. Only up to 150 avatars can be in a sim at the same time.

4) Branding. A company like BMW isn't interested to be part of an MMO. But if they can use the platform as a content management system with their own branding and entry portal, then it might be a whole different story.

5) The content creator has only limited control of his [SL] content. A company wants to decide if one user is allowed to spoil their experience with a crazy furry latex avatar or if he/she has to use one of their prefab avatars; if he/she can use gestures; if he/she can speak in open chat; if he/she can IM another potential customer; etc.

6) The technology is so far behind that a scene with a wow-effect is almost impossible: no animated meshes, no shaders, etc.

7) The user interface, especially the avatar customization system and camera movement, are way too complicated and an entrance barrier.

For Esther, these points point directly to what Sansar will be -- and who it will be geared toward -- and surprisingly, she thinks it won't be ideal for typical SLers. Here's why:

We already have some information about the priorities of Linden Lab for the new Project Sansar platform and from the statements available, we can see that the Lab has taken note of all these shortcoming of SL and they want to overcome them (well, I am not so sure about point 1,2 and 7 but I hope so).

This means that the new platform will be innovative in many more ways than just better graphics. It also means that it will not be another Second Life and not a virtual world. It will be a content management system for VR places some of these places will allow you to enter with your personal avatar (and some probably won't). Will that approach be successful? We don't know.

Is this a platform for the typical SL resident ? I don't think so. Can this be an attractive content management system for semiprofessional and professional developers? I think so.

Will VR fly this time? We don't know. The argument that VR failed in the past is no argument. Apple ignored all the rantings that smartphones would be a failed technology and created the iPhone. If they would have listened to the skeptics, we might not have them today. Hard to imagine now, isn't it? Linden Lab can only have success with their new platform if they are ready from the start.

There will only be a very short window of opportunity to become a major platform - if VR goggles fly at all. So Linden Lab does everything right in my eyes. All their decisions make sense. There are good chances that they have made a good investment.

The only point I'd disagree with her on is comparing VR with Apple and the smartphone market before the iPhone, because a relatively successful one did exist. (My Samsung Blackjack is probably still buried back in a box somewhere.) But beyond that, I think Esther's on to something with Sansar -- especially the idea that it won't be ideally geared to existing SLers. (Partly for reasons I wrote about here.)

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Comments

[Meursault]

These are good points. Scale & discovery are key.The technical problem re discovery is getting good supporting meta-data and context around 3d content and land in order to create relevant SEO; exposing that to Google globally to index is trivial. The problem of search + context reminds me of video circa 2006, when Google bought Youtube.

I disagree about brands. As it stands, at most you'll be able to convince a brand for one-off marketing event. Many VW's have struggled with brand engagement. In today's Imgur mobile world, it seems like a stretch to imagine a high value marketing channel including a virtual reality experience for a few thousand people. 50% internet traffic is mobile! What is the mobile play?

There are a lot of case studies of why brands failed in VWs, going back to worlds.com, there.com, SL (through the heady days of Reuters, CSI:NY, IBM, many Edu's, etc), from tightly branded and scripted experiences to free form exploration, from HUDs to alternate viewers. What marketing channel does this new tool augment?

I like the thought exploration of @Estelle, but look how much speculation there is -- it 'might be a whole different story.' There doesn't need to be any guessing if one goes and talks brands to find out if what they are building is worthwhile in that area at all. Otherwise it's another product push into a market that doesn't exist.

[A.J.]

It's amazing how revenue from SL has managed to fund several of LL's failed projects and now Sansar.

Sansar is a gamble and maybe a necessary one.

I just have a difficult time, not being an expert, understanding why this dependable cash cow called Second Life and it's dedicated base are so nonchalantly dismissed as failures by those who claim to know what they are talking about. It's either a failure or disposable.

As one of many SL users who have burned a lot of money and would be happy to burn a lot of money in the future... I want investment back into something that continues what I've started.

"Meursault" was so right with "community rules".

If LL gambles away the community... you can stick a fork in it.

[Yoz]

AJ: SL is not a dependable cash cow. It's been on a slow downward curve for several years, despite LL spending huge amounts of time, money and effort to make it more appealing. That doesn't make it a failure, nor does it mean LL is going to shut it down any time soon (even after Sansar launches). But given the huge legacy issues with SL's technology, content and feature set, starting brand new products makes more sense than trying to adapt SL to very different markets.

[irihapeti]

i think that where RL brands come in is where they can make a own environment that can make their RL products showcases interesting and fun to the potential buyers of the RL products. Or even when people just play on it, for its own sake

examples:

clothing: make a mannequin (avatar) to your own body measurements. Try clothes on, walk, sit, twirl and dance even with a NPC

vehicles: take a car or bike or boat or cycle for a spin

furnishings/wallpaper/paint,glazing/architecture. pick, mount, view, sit, recline

can work for tourism as well. Experience sample the Lourve, a island getaway, a hotel even. Then buy/book here for the RL

and so on

+

these are not virtual world environments as we understand them. But I think the brands be interested in making showcases like these

sharding is what makes them possible for millions at the same time. Shards of one. In the same way that 2D webs work now for showcasing RL products

[irihapeti]

ps

I just add that is not a either or

the same platform can make a sharded experience of one for some uses cases. And can make a virtual world for other cases as well

the platform tech is not mutually exclusive

[A.J.]

Yoz: I realize that I'm speaking as a SL resident. I'm not looking at what's best for LL... frankly, I don't care what's best for LL any more than they care what's best for SL residents.

I disagree that LL has really put their heart and soul into trying to make SL work. I think they have devoted a lot of resources into trying to make themselves money at the expense of making a better product.

I understand that the platform has limits. I just think that the residents of SL have "earned" the new platform and it should be made for them. In my mind, this goes to the heart of LL's problem. It's like a parent who is blinded by resentment of their own child because the child didn't grow up to be what they had envisioned. You don't starve the child and work it to death while trying desperately to make another one for your ego. The process isn't going to make you a good parent for anyone.

There's no reason to believe that LL will ever be able to make Sansar work. Whatever Sansar becomes, it's going to inevitably have needs that will not fit into LL's tight little ego. They will end up resenting Sansar when the hype turns to reality and their customers start expecting real service.

[Talin]

The money has been used to fund Rod Humble his games, to take over the XstreetSL marketplace, to create Sansar, to pay for that social network site avatarsunited, to pay for jogging trips and expensive catering service. Lots of money got wasted. Still Linden Lab can do that it is their company. The userbase does not have anything to say or want how a company uses its resources. Linden Lab never cared to listen and has been extremely brutal towards their userbase. That is why there is so much hate towards Linden Lab and the reason why Linden Lab will meet a difficult future now.

It is different this time, Linden Lab will now no longer be a unique provider like it was in the previous decade. Now Linden Lab will have to compete to get a customer. Read again Linden Lab <----> Compete for customer. Sounds funny doesn't it.

This is why I do not see a bright future for Linden Lab in the next years. I really don't see a good future for Linden Lab unless they deliver the most spectacular thing gamers ever put their eyes on. Linden Lab doesn't have the talent in their stable so they cannot deliver that experience.

I view Linden Lab as a pingpong ball on a massive ocean of the upcoming VR technology. One big wave and ... oh where is that pingpong ball?

I do think customers of Second Life will either remain in a smaller and much smaller Second Life than there is today or they will find new entertainment in other places. There are dozens and dozens of virtual worlds coming. That oculus thingie attracted a lot of capital from investors so this sector will expand drastically in the next 5 years.

The community in Second Life will get damaged when Sansar opens. Some will want the new shiny, especially the cheapskates and the freeloaders who do not spend. Second Life residents who pay and have inventory will not be pleased.

Ebbe Linden is also full of crap when he says that inventory cannot be transferred. The Firestorm Viewer can export a prim build as an FBX file by default which can then be imported into Sansar directly.

Linden will regret their decissions. They are in for massive storm in the next year. I do not envy them.

Ebbe Altberg will be standing there and stumble:

"Did I do that?"

[Talin]

Another thing Linden Lab wasted a lot of money on and also a little project of the current CEO. The hidden gambling/gaming situation.

Remember how Linden Lab did brag about the huge interest they got on their blog.

Anyone seen how Vegas bought 1000 sims and created a booming industry in the illegal gambling/gaming sector?

Now pay attention, this is the SAME GUY that is going to deliver the platform of the future at the end of this fiscal year.

ROFLOL anyone?