Here's the results of our survey of New World Notes readers, in which we asked them to express their interest in buying a virtual reality headset, and which brand they prefer -- and the results, as you can see, are pretty worrying for the VR industry:
Oculus Rift leads the pack with 20%, but the real leader is wait-and-see skepticism or outright disinterest: over 60% of you fall in that category. This is striking, because notwithstanding what Palmer Luckey thinks about Second Life users, New World Notes' readership, as I've explained, has a lot of VR enthusiasts. But even most basic Second Life users or users interested in Project Sansar -- Second Life's follow-up, very much promoted as being a VR-based virtual world -- aren't notably interested in actually buying a VR headset.
To be fair, a significant minority of NWN readers are very interested in VR -- like longtime reader Adeon Writer:
I own an Oculus Rift Development Kit 2. For consumer VR, I'll be waiting to see the reviews between Rift CV1 and HTC Vive. I'm personally conflicted and can't afford both. Just like the old console wars, it will be the exclusive launch titles that will play a bigger role in my decision than the technical specs of the devices themselves. All this goes without saying that I'm only interested in VR for gaming.
For many, it's possible the "wait-and-see" attitude could reflect not categorical skepticism, but rather, potential interest coupled with a desire to hold off on becoming a customer until there's a clear victor among these many competitors.
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I'm just not willing to strap an octopus onto my face.
I love the idea of VR, but not at that cost.
In the golden age of Cyberpink literature Gibson got all the attention for a world you jacked onto and vanished into. But Walter Jon Williams wrote the script for the internet.
- Largely because, if I recall rightly, Williams was already running a BBS.
This isn't just a tidbit about how one was technically more feasible than the other... it was also more accessible.
VR enthusiasts presume that if you vanished into the inside of an MMO - using it would be as easy and comfortable as real life, or maybe even more comfortable.
But the Uncanny Valley theory points to a major problem, as does Scott McCloud's books on Understanding Comics...
- Over-immersion is alienating. When something is too real, every flaw stands out starkly.
This is why an MMO like World of Warcraft did so well - toonification (made up word there), makes it much easier to accept unreality, but also makes it easier to self-identify with your chosen orc or goblin (see Scott McCloud for why).
And the whole 'jack in to tune out' thing... has the exact same problem that 'drop acid to tune out' has... Leaving reality behind is NOT comforting in practice, even if it seem 'groovy' in theory.
So the internet works, where cyberspace didn't - because we have not cut ourselves off from ourselves to reach the internet.
That said, I do expect that all of this VR research will end up looping back into some very useful Augmented Reality ideas... We will get our Tang Cool-AID, but we won't all be living in space.
Posted by: Pussycat Catnap | Thursday, December 10, 2015 at 06:28 PM
Hmmm... I like the idea of Cyberpink literature... but I meant to write Cyberpunk... :P
Posted by: Pussycat Catnap | Thursday, December 10, 2015 at 06:29 PM
Hamlet writered:
»Project Sansar -- Second Life's follow-up,«
Huh? How can an open-ended virtual world ever have a follow-up? It's not supposed to ever end, ergo doesn't need a successor. How can a structurally, technically and decidely not worldly VR experience be a follow-up? And lastly, how can a VR follow up a VW???
Then we could also say American Football is SL's follow-up, and baking yummy cookies with mommie is SL's follow-up.
Posted by: Orca Flotta | Friday, December 11, 2015 at 04:39 AM
Because its a technology issue. No matter how you slice it SL will go obsolete, and its likely some point in the next decade that it won't even function anymore from simple incompatibility with available networking options.
Technology changes, fast. Tech companies adapt or... become the next Yahoo...
From a company product line standpoint Sansar is the SL followup product...
From a consumer perspective however, it is possible SL will die eventually having had no followup...
Just as gaming companies are letting themselves be convinced MMOs (MUDs) are no longer profitable, social gaming companies... well... seem to have already fully finished deciding 'MUSH'es are no longer viable...
So when SL does hit the technology wall, and you can already see that wall on the horizon, there might be nothing there on the other side to carry the concept forward.
Posted by: Pussycat Catnap | Friday, December 11, 2015 at 09:35 AM
Not the least bit interested in VR, no wait and see about it for me. I don't want to strap anything onto my head, period. I am quite content with my current interface of looking at a screen sitting at my desk. I'm an avid gamer, have several consoles including a PS4, but PC gaming is my fave and still enjoy roleplaying in Second Life (as I have for about 8 years now)- but still, no interest at all in buying any peripherals for a 'VR experience', and I don't see that changing in the future. I am definitely not the target audience, it would seem. LOL
Posted by: Tamar Luminos | Friday, December 11, 2015 at 10:55 AM
The bulk of MWN readers never impressed me as "wait-and-see" kind of sheep who patiently follow whatever herd has the most momentum.
They are a lot like cats when they decide they don't like something.
Look at the decline of SL in general. When people say they don't want something, I'd believe them.
Posted by: Clara Seller | Friday, December 11, 2015 at 01:23 PM
I do not live alone. When I am in SL I am often either sitting in a room with family members, or at least someplace where I can easily be reached. I am not interested in cutting myself of entirely from the real world for long periods of time, and my family most certainly isn't.
Posted by: Lagomorph7 | Saturday, December 12, 2015 at 06:48 AM
Not interested in VR either. I do various other things when in SL and a headset wouldn't be conducive to the way I play....
Posted by: Duchess Flux | Saturday, December 12, 2015 at 04:13 PM