With over 100 votes from New World Notes readers, here's how many Oculus Rifts you predict will sell on 2016:
Nearly 60% predict under 100,000, which definitely sounds right, especially with the just-announced price point of $599. This is a seriously bearish estimate, especially coming from virtual reality/virtual world enthusiasts who make up about 95% of the regular reader base. To put those numbers in perspective, consider initial sales of the Playstation 3, another 3D graphics/gaming platform that hit the market at $499-599 in 2006, which provoked a lot of outrage among hardcore gamers:
Despite the price point controversy, the PS3 still sold over 3.5 million units -- in just its first 5 months on the market.
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My first guess was under 100K, probably because I don't intend to buy one. But then I thought, Facebook will be promoting sales and they have 1 billion members. Assume only 1% of those can afford it, that leaves 10M potential customers. If only 1% of them buy, potential sales are already at 100K. so I revised my estimate upward, and guessed between 100K and 500K. Now reading that PS3 sold 3.5M at a similar price, I'm thinking it could go over 1M.
Posted by: Flashing Merlin | Saturday, January 16, 2016 at 08:43 AM