Palmer Luckey Cautions Virtual Reality Enthusiasts Against Expecting Fast Mass Growth - “GoPro Took 5 Years & 2 Models Before They Sold Over 1 Million”

Weeks before the commercial release of the Oculus Rift, Palmer Luckey is sounding some cautious notes, as in this interview with Gamasutra, saying, "Don't believe the most optimistic things the analysts say. Especially when those analysts don't actually know anything about VR." This might surprise some VR enthusiasts, but it's actually consistent with what Palmer was telling me last year, when I started interviewing him for my recent Wired article:

“It’s extremely unlikely it’s going to come anywhere close to modern game consoles,” he told me last Summer, when I asked him if he thought VR's growth would track that of next gen consoles like the PS4 or Xbox 360. Both are platforms put out from longtime companies, he pointed out, launching with lots of game IP -- neither of which is true just yet with the leading VR platforms. “[In the] early days, very unlikely [VR] will sell anywhere near the 360." (The Xbox 360 is approaching around 100 million units sold after being on the market for about five years.)

Back in 2014, analyst firm KZero predicted there would be 83M VR headset owners by 2018, a number I also brought up with Luckey -- but he wasn't even willing to go that high:

"No official forecast, but I will say 80 million is not going to happen” in that time frame, he told me. Interestingly, he contrasted VR with non-game electronics products that we consider mass market now, noting how long they actually took to gain a large install base:

“Even looking at the most successful products in the world, like Kindle and iPod,” those took several years to get into the range of several millions shipped, he noted. “GoPro took 5 years and 2 models before they sold over 1 million.”

Sounds like Palmer Luckey is still as skeptical about rapid adoption now as we was last year. Just wish analysts like Goldman Sachs would listen to him, rather than themselves.

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Comments

[Amanda Dallin]

Various forms of pocket PCs, Black Berries and Palms were around for a decade before the various Apple I products, readers like Kindle, and smart phones took off. VR devices will eventually take their place but it could be a while and the format will likely be different than anything anyone is even dreaming of now.

[Eddi Haskell]

I always feel like I am missing the boat when I write comments like this -- but how many adults can sit around all day cutting themselves off from the world wearing virtual reality headsets? What happens when the phone rings, the dog needs to be walked, or the tea kettle whistles? You will not be able to use these things in an office setting either (unless you are in the VR industry of course). I think the consumer market is going to be limited to hard core gamers -- but this latest iteration of headset-centric virtual reality as it is being proposed is not going to take over the world.

[Ezra]

@Eddi

You can just take the headset off at any time you want to do something like walk a dog or answer a phone.

[Clara Seller]

I have the same feeling as Eddi Haskell. I could never use this at work, unless I lock my doors and close to business.

At home, I have a family that I want to protect and a life that I interact with. They don't have an "off" switch.

So it feels like the appeal depends on how much care and responsibility you invest in the life around you.

[Ezra]

@Ciara "So it feels like the appeal depends on how much care and responsibility you invest in the life around you."

Considering VR headsets are being sold as leisure and entertainment devices, it really, really has nothing to do with how well it works at your job or your ability to protect your family in the case of an emergency.

Maybe Hamlet you should start appending to your posts the fact these things don't jack into your brain permanently and are just PC peripherals that are totally ok to take off anytime you feel.

If today you to manage to go to work without taking your Playstation 4 with you, a VR headset will pose no greater risk to you being able to go to work and do your job.

If you've mastered taking off your headphones and putting down a game controller or phone or tablet when your family needs something, you require no more the manual dexterity to take off a VR headset. They don't need to be surgically removed.

[Dartagan Shepherd]

The hype starts with the denial that VR mostly describes a peripheral device and its software support.

It isn't a platform, a community, a console, a standalone device, etc.

We're getting so far from an apples to apples discussion with VR that it boggles.

It's a peripheral device. Nothing more, nothing less.

[metacam oh]

you cant use a VR headset at work? why would you want to? Do you play Xbox 360 at work? Does your work computer run SL?

the people that act like VR is going to be bust because you cant wear a headset for 5 hours straight, maybe that's a good thing.

[Dirk]

I've done research with a DK2. One factor that has disappeared from discussion is VR sickness, which seems to be a predictable experience for about 10% of the population. The Oculus team chased issues of hardware and screen latency as the cause, but it isn't that simple. Also, VR sickness differs from simulator sickness and 'normal' sea/car sickness on a number of dimensions. I have to agree with Dartagan's comment. This is a peripheral and not the only way we will access virtual experiences, and there will always be a portion of the population that will only last about 7-10 minutes in VR before losing their lunch.

[joe]

Ezra is a pusher.

[Clara Seller]

Sorry it took so long to get back to this, Ezra. I want to start by conceding that you're right and I'm wrong.

I loved the concept of the Star Trek Holodeck. I'd have one if I could. The really nice thing about a Holodeck is that it was a contained, private space with a whole lotta sophisticated protections including a nanny computer that would alert you to everything you needed know about your real life. When the ST creators dreamed up the Holodeck it wasn't a stretch to dream up some common sense because they needed their characters to look responsible.

I don't have a problem with VR. I have a problem with these headsets. I don't think humans are good multitaskers and the marketing of this sensory deprivation product is ignoring that in the name of a quick buck. But what do I know? Humans have quickly adapted to texting while driving with no adverse effects because it's just a tiny little tool that you use for a few seconds in the periphery of your life.

[joe]

Haw haw. Ciara really burned Ezra.