No, Elon Musk, We're Probably Not in a Virtual Simulation

Depicted: Second Life, circa 2014

Elon Musk just made this much-discussed argument:

The strongest argument for us being in a simulation probably is the following. Forty years ago we had pong. Like, two rectangles and a dot. That was what games were.

Now, 40 years later, we have photorealistic, 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously, and it's getting better every year. Soon we'll have virtual reality, augmented reality.

If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then the games will become indistinguishable from reality, even if that rate of advancement drops by a thousand from what it is now. Then you just say, okay, let's imagine it's 10,000 years in the future, which is nothing on the evolutionary scale.

So given that we're clearly on a trajectory to have games that are indistinguishable from reality, and those games could be played on any set-top box or on a PC or whatever, and there would probably be billions of such computers or set-top boxes, it would seem to follow that the odds that we're in base reality is one in billions.

Tell me what's wrong with that argument. Is there a flaw in that argument?

At least three, actually: 

It Confuses Visual Simulation With Reality Simulation

Immersive 3D graphics may simulate visual aspects of the real world, but our visual perception of reality is just one way we apprehend it. The chief is consciousness, and Ray Kurzweil hand-waving notwithstanding, you cannot make a similar Moore’s Law extrapolation on the simulation of a single human consciousness, let alone billions of them — let alone yours, you who are reading this right now. (Cogito ergo sum, motherfuckers.) It is quite possible that consciousness is an irreducible phenomena utterly tied to our evolution and our biological substrate, and therefore impossible to artificially simulate.

But that just brings us to an even more obvious, verifiable problem:

It Confuses Ability to Simulate Reality with a Desire to Simulate

Yes, there are now “3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously” — but there are actually less of those than there used to be. World of Warcraft once had nearly 12 million active users; now it has less than half that. Second Life, the most world-like of all simulations, has even less. In fact, you can even say this: As our ability to create more realistic, immersive virtual worlds grows, the market for actually using them shrinks. Instead, billions of people would rather play 2D games (i.e. Candy Crush, etc.) that are much closer to Pong than not.

Of course, Elon could then posit a hypothetical alien race that is able to simulate all of reality including consciousness and for some reason, wants to do so. But that just takes us to a more meta problem with the argument:

It’s Indistinguishable from Traditional Religion

At this point, our very non-human-like hypothetical alien race which can and wants to simulate all of reality doesn’t seem fundamentally different from the Biblical version of God, or for that matter Zeus, Brahma, or whoever. So in the end, the simulation argument is just a secularized version of any number of creation myths — and not especially superior to it. (It's really just an update to the medieval "God as clockmaker" argument, where God looks like E.T., and the clock is an Xbox.) So if we're to give the simulation argument credence, there's really no reason to dismiss any other religion-based "simulation" belief. And is that really the kind of world (simulated or otherwise) we want to live in?

See you in the hot tub, Elon! (Or maybe not.)

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Comments

[metacam oh]

Its a twist on the Nick Bostom's Simulation Hypothesis. Basically IF civilizations evolve and create realistic simulations in the future, which for arguments sake is possible unless he destroy ourselves first. So if you believe that eventually we will create realistic simulations. So out of all the civilizations out there there will be more simulated universes than real ones, so the odds are we could be in one of these. Or something like that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulation_hypothesis

doesn't mean we are obviously just that the probability is actually pretty high

[Maggie Darwin]

Well, if we are in a sim, at least it supports mesh and is obviously not scripted in LSL.

[Wagner J Au]

Yeah, Elon is making a variation of that argument but seems to be suggesting that's already happened to us. ("So maybe we should be hopeful this is a simulation, because otherwise we are going to create simulations indistinguishable from reality or civilization ceases to exist," he goes on to say.)

[Gary J. Bivin]

Does it really matter to us which it is -- "real" or "simulated"? We are what we are, and experience what we experience. It's our reality. However, if there is some way to hack the underlying code from inside...

[G]

If I'm in an MMO, why have I been stuck at the same level through the last three jobs? Also, I need better gear, and the crafting system doesn't seem to give me anything better than the store. Plus, your auction system sucks -- I mean, the update with eBay was an improvement, but it still sucks. And where the hell are my guildies when I need them? Plus, what's the elder game around here? The old age home? Who thought THAT would improve player retention?

HELP! I'm trapped in a videogame designed by VERY BAD game designers!

[Lordsirm]

I don't think it is possible for one reason: species survival. Even when and if we ever get simulation down well enough to make it indistinguishable from reality, we, or any species, for that matter, will act in it's own best interest to survive and place measures into place to keep such a thing from endangering us and it won't be reasonable to our brains that a life that isn't in touch with reality is a life that will preserve us from all unknowns.

[Lordsirm]

BTW, this is also the reason that there will be limits placed on AI and robotization, in my opinion. Not to mention the cheapness of material needed for our brains versus ever more complex structures needed to simulate it.

[cyberserenity]

Look around you. Thats all of the hi rez graphics needed to simulate. Simulating the rest is simple.
Hacking the code from inside. What a nice thought.

[melponeme_k]

Elon Musk only has to prove he is in MMO by his name alone.

Only in an MMO can he have a name that sounds like a secretion from a Moose in heat.

There you go, I just proved aliens are simulating us.

LOL

[Clara Seller]

Actors think that we are all acting in their play and politicians think we are all sheep looking for their flock.

Sure, we're all part of a Virtual Simulation... whatever. Tell that to someone who is living with famine, terminal disease, chronic pain, immense loss, unjust imprisonment, or a host of other plagues. They will probably tell you that this game sucks.

If people really looked closely, they would see that life is really a giant marijuana field waiting to be smoked.

[Galatea]

"Yeah, Elon is making a variation of that argument but seems to be suggesting that's already happened to us."

That's a feature of the original simulation argument, too. If it's ever going to happen, then out of all the realities that are created, only one will be the one where it hasn't already happened (before they do it). To presume *our* reality is the one that's the base one where it hasn't happened yet (in some other reality that's simulating us) is basically falling back on the old religious viewpoint that we're the center of the universe. If we assume our universe isn't special, then it's very probably one of the simulations.

[Galatea]

Also, have to quibble with this...

"It is quite possible that consciousness is an irreducible phenomena utterly tied to our evolution and our biological substrate..."

Okay.

"...and therefore impossible to artificially simulate."

That does not follow, unless you further assume that it's impossible to simulate biology. Indeed, once you allow that it's possible to simulate an atom, it becomes impossible to deny that it's possible to simulate anything that is made out of atoms.

To make a convincing argument that you can't simulate consciousness, you must make a convincing argument that you can't simulate physics, or that consciousness arises some something other than the physical (e.g. a soul). If you're committed to materialism, your only course to save this argument you're making is to make a convincing argument that basic physics is impossible to simulate, because once you can simulate that, you can simulate anything and everything that exists in the material universe, with enough processing power.

[joe]

So all those psycho killers who claim, "someone else made me do it" are actually correct.

[sirhc deSantis]

"Cogito ergo sum, motherfuckers" is quite possibly the best line you ever wrote.

Been keeping an eye on the Elon Moose On Heat (!)Musk character for a while, his King of mars bit explains a lot. This is indeed secular woo for the technos, a rival to Chopra the NutBar Mutterer. The random spoof wisdom of chopra (a goto for me in times of dire boredom) should spawn a Musk version.

[Anubis]

As the Buddhists say, “All is illusion.” The solid table in front of you is actually totally porous, with huge spaces in between the atoms. Your brain has both evolved and been programmed to process sensory input into the illusion of a solid table being in front of you. Since your brains have all evolved and been programmed in similar ways, you all share the illusion that the images formed in your minds represent a reality. So yes, Elon is right that you're living in a virtual simulation, but it's one created by the neural computers in your minds, and one which you co-evolved into, not one created by space aliens.

[Flashing Merlin]

Musk might be correct that the odds are a billion to one that some advanced alien civilization wouldn't have the capability of creating Earth as a virtual simulation. However such aliens would have no reason to do so, since such an advanced civilization wouldn't need to use us as batteries (as in The Matrix). Hence the odds they have created Earth as a simulation, approach zero.

[Iggy]

Musk needs to stick to launching rockets and building cool cars. He's no philosopher.

If this world is fake, which is the term I prefer for all virtual experiences, why bother with rockets and cars?

Let's just shag all day, if the consequences are fake.