Virtual World Experts in 2006 Were Wildly, Wildly Wrong About the Future of VR & the Metaverse in 2016

Now that Robert Scoble and other top VR experts are helping develop a new roadmap for the future of virtual reality with Reuben Steiger, I looked back to the Metaverse Roadmap that Robert, Reuben, and a lot of other folks in the virtual world/reality industry (including myself) helped write ten years ago, in 2006. Reading it is an exercise in humility, because it is mostly wackily, wackily wrong. For instance, here's a statement for the report that I helped draft with report lead author Jerry Paffendorf and others:

"Invisible, unobtrusive PDAs will be the cellphones of 2016, and they will access a datascape where information is presented in a variety of contexts-- metaverse as the operating system of 2016. The walled gardens of fantasy and narrative will become just one annex among many in the metaverse, which will be an equal and parallel partner to the legacy mediums of popular culture-- music, film, TV, celebrity. Real world companies will be incubated, developed, and in large part run in the metaverse. This will engender a high degree of personal entrepreneurship—metaverse as the EBay of 2016. "The developed world will be subsumed by the metaverse. Developing nations will collectively share metaverse portals that will enable them to join the global economy. The datascape, providing constantly updated knowledge about every corner of the world and accessible by all, will create total transparency over politics, the health of the globe’s citizens, and the planet itself."

At the time ten years ago, I was 100% positive this would all be happening right now. But turns out we were about 80% wrong. Let's look at it point by point:

"Invisible, unobtrusive PDAs will be the cellphones of 2016, and they will access a datascape where information is presented in a variety of contexts--

Nailed that prediction. And only that prediction.

-- metaverse as the operating system of 2016. The walled gardens of fantasy and narrative will become just one annex among many in the metaverse, which will be an equal and parallel partner to the legacy mediums of popular culture-- music, film, TV, celebrity.

Wrong, wrong, and partly wrong -- only if you're to broaden the definition of the metaverse to include Minecraft, the one "metaverse" that is popular on a level of most TV, film, etc, and online games like League of Legends.

Real world companies will be incubated, developed, and in large part run in the metaverse. This will engender a high degree of personal entrepreneurship—metaverse as the EBay of 2016.

No, no, no, and no: eBay of 2006 is still the eBay of 2016. 

"The developed world will be subsumed by the metaverse. 

LOL OMGWTFBBQ. 

Developing nations will collectively share metaverse portals that will enable them to join the global economy.

I guess you could say that happens on a very limited basis with MMO gold farming, but still... no.

The datascape, providing constantly updated knowledge about every corner of the world and accessible by all, will create total transparency over politics, the health of the globe’s citizens, and the planet itself."

Ask Julian Assange if the first part is true. Or better yet, ask his patron Vladimir Putin. As to the second part, it is true we now have abundant data about the health of the people and planet. But ask Donald Trump and 40% of the country if that actually matters.

The final official report (.pdf link here) is about as off base if not more so. Again, I'm saying this not to suggest the Roadmap (or road maps in general) are a waste of time, because they're still a worthwhile thought experiment. I'm only pointing out how wrong so many experts can be, especially when they start moving away from a 2-3 year timeframe. So as with the hyperbolic predictions of VR growth in the next 10 years, maybe a little less hubris is in order.

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Comments

[Joey1058]

The biggest thing I see to shake my head over is "Real world companies will be incubated, developed, and in large part run in the metaverse". Major corporations drank that cool aid. And will be forever timid to put a toe in the water again, in spite of Facebook's $2B investment. VR and gaming has always been a small entrepreneur's turf. Always will be. The best a major company will get from that is to place ads in popular VR communities that develop like town squares and bazzars. Places that you will always have at least 6 to 12 participants round the clock. Because in spite of immersive tech, it is STILL the same core group that will drive VR in the next two decades. AR should be the transformative tech that corporations get behind.

[Cyberserenity]

VR will be like Second life and the rest of vr worlds something for the very few. But of course we are always wrong with predictions.

[JohnC]

I am with Joey 100%

[Pussycat Catnap]

But, but, but...

In 2026 everything we be done in the VRverse.

Even babies will be conceived in there by transmitting the DNA of the male through a 3D printer to the female and injecting 'printed sperm' all while neither ever leaves the VRverse.

Species will be saved.
Global Warming will be solved.
Poverty will end.
Racism will end because people will be digital cubes.
The Aliens will arrive and join us in a VR orgy.

All by 2026.

Certainly it will solve everything.

....

What is actually more interesting is how LITTLE has changed since 2006...

I think we're hitting a point where even as the technology changes speed up - we've managed to consume it into our cultures in a manner now that keeps it from effecting real change at a pace faster than we have evolved to be able to handle...

We have adapted to its pace, by slowing its impact.

2026... the only thing different will probably be another half hour added onto my commute in traffic...

[sirhc deSantis]

'LOL OMGWTFBBQ' best thing you ever wrote - te salutant kkthx =^^=

[JohnC]

Pussycat.
"I think we're hitting a point where even as the technology changes speed up - we've managed to consume it into our cultures in a manner now that keeps it from effecting real change at a pace faster than we have evolved to be able to handle..."
Now this is IMHO a great observation, and explains why throughout history mankind has been able to remain essentially the same being regardless of huge technological advances.

[sirhc deSantis]

Yes, more serious response - Ser Catnap basically nails it. The last 10 years have not actually brought up anything new, just made it cheaper. Two things of the top of my balding head - the IOT was x10 and exploding batteries - I still have one in my sadly moribund T60 (kept as a curio).
We have seen some 'huge technological advances' just not recently. Wheres my jetpack BTW? (Being 50+ is fab)

[Carlos Loff]

People spend countless hours in Browsers, even grandmothers - The moment Virtual Worlds cab be visited just by clicking a link on Facebook abd quickly choosing an avatar and entering that world still in browser, with no more interruptions or registers or whatever - Virtual Worlds will explode to the Millions

[JohnC]

sirhc
Your jet pack, my flying car, my Pleasure model Darrel Hannah lookalike replicant, which I admit still has 3 years to make its incept date, are all things I feel sure will be with us over 50's at some point, least in time for us to watch them on the news from a comfy chair in our retirement homes after a good few years residency. But that is the benefit of age, to some at least, they get used to these "the future is now "announcements, and put what is being announced on that same list with the jet pack and flying car etc. And BTW I know there are perfectly functioning examples of jet packs and flying cars in existence at the moment you just can't get them on Amazon yet. Even with Prime.

[Jimq]

In 2010, I predicted SL would be irrelevant by 2016 as would most VR bloggers.

I'm 100% right.

[Giulio Prisco]

Nice memories!

I think we extrapolated our own enthusiasm to everyone else, and that was wrong. Most people didn't, don't, and probably won't give a damn about VR, Oculus or not.

For many people, the great thing about the internet is that it permits asynchronous and semi-synchronous communications. You can have some sort of communication with others without really paying attention, and many people love that.

Why should they want to go back to attention-hungry synchronous communications?