Virtual Hype, Real Numbers: Total Projected VR Install Base for 2016 Under 6.25 Million

This is what a niche of a niche of a niche looks like:

From SuperData Research, for my money the best game industry analytics firm out there, an even factoring in the just-announced Google Daydream, the total install base for all mid to premium VR HMDs is projected to grow to way less than 7 million. With console and mobile-based devices, from Sony and Samsung respectively, way ahead of the Vive and Rift, which still get way more publicity.

I say this is a niche of a niche of a niche, and there's a very good reason for that:

In contrast, the Playstation 4 sold 6.4 million units in just 3 months (in 2014) -- very good but pretty typical sales ranges for videogame consoles. And from what we know, VR consumers are the tiny subset of hardcore gamers who are even more hardcore than console and PC gamers (250 million or so), who are in turn a sliver of the 1.5 -2 billion or so gamers in the world today.  

(Via HyperGrid Business) 

Comments

[JohnC]

For me there is absolutely nothing at all surprising or unexpected here. It was always obviously going to be the platforms that already had the largest user base that would way outsell the others.
The Play station is like the TV or Washing machine, people just tend to have one laying around. And anything done on a smart phone reaches just about the whole planet. Unfortunately the two top platforms are probably the least powerful, so the VR products will be watered down to a great extent. It will be this years Xmas toy to shock granny with, and next years techno heap in the corner.

[Willow Dion]

Unfortunately this is not a surprise. While I suspected for a long time the high cost and high cost of upgrading to an Oculus Rift confirmed it.

[Pussycat Catnap]

So the ENTIRE VR industry is smaller than the playerbase of World of Warcraft.

- Which itself is considered too small by non-MMO companies, thus stalling much interest in developing more MMOs.

They are throwing money at VR.

And while it is smaller than industries they presume are 'dead weight' - it is for the simple reason that they are hoping to not be left behind.

Tech is paranoid of being the next IBM, the next Yahoo, the next MySpace.

For good reason.

Most of the present day VR, if not all of it, will fail. But investors are hoping some key ideas come out of and that by the third generation or so of it - they have an industry that can go big.

So while these small numbers make them look silly... the companies in this are playing short term visions, but the key actors behind the scenes are playing a long term game with all of this.