Gartner Inexplicably Predicts Mainstream Adoption of VR in 2-5 Years

Gartner is a highly influential and well-reputed analyst firm, but sometimes shows blind spots in its forecasting abilities. (Remember in 2007 when Gartner said “80 percent of active Internet users and Fortune 500 companies will have a ‘second life’, but not necessarily in Second Life” by 2011"? I sure do.) In the latest update of its canonical Hype Cycle chart (click to embiggenate above), Gartner mysteriously claims VR is already out of the Trough of Disillusionment and well on its way to the Plateau of Productivity. Which is to say:

Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.

On first glance this seems, to use a technical term, crazy pants:

I just blogged how a top VR developer is deeply discounting its rig due to poor sales, and earlier this year, that consumers aren't even interested in getting a free demo of VR. For that matter, SuperData forecasts that by 2020, the total install base of premium VR headsets will be 52 million total devices from different companies -- which would mean there will still be more Playstation 4 consoles on the market (53 million+ at the moment) than premium VR devices.

To make things even more mysterious, Gartner thinks AR will take longer to adapt, even though Apple is soon releasing its own AR technology for the iPhone, joining Microsoft, Google, and others in the market. It's likely that more people have already used an AR application (Pokemon Go) than have even tried VR.

All of which is to say, I have no idea where Gartner is getting its forecast. I reached out to the author of this new report, who'll hopefully put me on the Slope of Enlightenment (out of the Trough of Snark).

Comments

[candle]

Gartner is pretty much just a marketing arm now.

They will pretty much tell you whatever the high paying client wants them to say. Right FB?

[Fike]

Would love to hear when the author gets back to you!

[TonyVT Skarredghost]

Well, AR will take longer for sure. Phone AR is already here, but phone AR isn't true AR: glass AR will need a lot of years to succeed.

And about VR, I agree: according to Unity CEO, in 2019 VR will start to become mainstream...

[David]

If you count Facebook as a form of "second life", their prediction was on point.

[irihapeti]

if by mainstream they mean 3D gaming, and/or sit on the sofa at home and watch/interact with 3D movies then yes 5 years is pretty doable

[RenZephyr]

This does seem more about Gartner being in the news than anything else.