Private SL Life Sim Loss in 2018 Greatly Slows Compared to 2017 & 2016

Chart via Grid Survey

New Second Life economics data from Tyche Shepherd, a senior statistician for a renowned multinational corporation who tracks Second Life economic activity for fun on her website here:

"Year-to-date private estate net losses stands at 139 regions (it was 390 this time last year and 359 the year before )," she reports. So while Linden Lab is steadily losing its core revenue source, the loss is significantly slowing from previous years. 

By point of comparison, Second Life lost about 1000 private sims in 2017, which translated into roughly $4 million dollars in yearly revenue gone. So at the current loss rate, the revenue hit for 2018 will possibly be a half or even a third less of that $4M drop.

A net loss of 7 regions this week in #Secondlife - All Private Estate losses
Year to date private estate net losses stand at 139 regions (it was 390 this time last year and 359 the year before )
Details here https://t.co/WDFE2OmoEP

— Tyche Shepherd (@tycheshepherd) June 17, 2018

This data strongly suggests the Second Life economy still adjusting its landmass for its existing userbase, which has remained roughly unchanged in size -- and is shrinking to account for that, and is gradually reaching a point of equilibrium. That would be a hopeful sign for the existing community, if cold comfort to the departing sim owners who were unable to sustain themselves.

Comments

[Adeon Writer]

Isn't this a good thing though? Mainland has always been empty and boring, and now more people are moving there instead.

[Iggy 1.0]

Where else are they going to go? Not to join the 50 people in Sansar or High Fidelity. Where else has this level of UGC and world-building?

[Argo N.]

Even with the slowing rate of loss I can not help wonder at what point in the future revenues will decrease so they no longer cover expenses. Other revenue streams may compensate a bit but the Lab is going to needs a significant win at some point.

It would be interesting to see what factors strongly predict sim lifetime. It would be nice to think the Lab has made such a study (this kind of data would be hard for an outsider to collect). The Labs's advertising certainly could benefit. It would also give them a better understanding of what they were selling to their paying customers.

I've been following Tyche S. work with interest for a while. With the problems of collecting and cleaning the data its been very nicely done!