Second Life Discounts Help Drive Largest Sustained Sim Growth in Years

There's a new report from Tyche Shepherd, a senior statistician for a renowned multinational corporation who tracks Second Life economic activity for fun here. It's her first report since Linden Lab announced an SL sim price discount in late June. And looking at her data, it seems like the discounts have contributed to a rare burst of growth in SL sims:

"We are now two weeks into the new pricing regime for Private Estates and this is now the second week of positive growth of the grid... Net growth stands at 35 regions this week (last week was 34). All this week's net growth was among private estates," she announced. "This is the first time of two weeks of sustained growth since March/April 2016, and this is 2 to 3 times higher," she tells me. (And that 2016 growth was temporary, largely due to SL13 birthday regions briefly coming online.)

It's even possible that Linden Lab's discounts have helped reduce the overall loss of SL sims to a tiny trickle:

"Because of the recent net growth," Tyche reports, "year to date private estate net losses now are down to 52 -- a 0.3% loss." (By contrast, in 2017, 4% of the private sim land mass disappeared.) 

What Tyche tells me suggests we have to go back over five years to see stronger growth to private sims in Second Life -- maybe even further:

First two weeks of New Linden Lab #Secondlife region pricing results in positive growth - Overall Net Change in Private Estates since 2nd July is +94 Regions (After SL15B regions leave) - Lots of detail here https://t.co/bwhYSTUEk6 pic.twitter.com/ljV7uMHOrQ

— Tyche Shepherd (@tycheshepherd) July 15, 2018

"In 2012 and earlier we were seeing triple figure changes week on week...first half of 2012 saw high two digit growth for several weeks." And that growth may (may!) have been strictly an adjustment among "land barons":

"In Late 2011 and early 2012," Tyche tells me, "there was regular patterns of growth and decline within each month. There was much speculation that this was down to major landholders getting special deals where they could bring on grid new regions without set-up charge as long as they returned any non-rented ones by end of month for no tier. To my knowledge this has never been confirmed."

So overall, while it's too soon to say this definitively, it's looking quite possible that Linden Lab's sim discounts have put Second Life on the (slow) road to economic recovery.

Comments

[camilia fidelis nee patchouli woollahra]

Let's give it another five months. it's still too early to pop the champagne, we need to see actual long-term commitment before the party starts up.

[Pulsar]

It sounds like good news and encouraging, especially considering that usually in Summer there is less activity and comparing it to the 2016 graph: http://www.tycheshepherd.com/images/private_estates_net_change_to_01_Jan_2016.png
But yes, time will tell.

[Clara Seller]

I also say it's too early to tell. My observation from my particular land baron is available new sims have popped up at reduced "special" pricing. In order to get that discount, you have to move and start over. If you stay put then you're gonna be paying the same price that the big giant has set long ago.

In doing some quick price comparisons, I'm seeing some smaller barons offering mild reductions and the big giant holding firm.

I think all of this is probably a cost of living pacifier for the barons and a parachute, that was carefully designed not to open, for the residents who are falling into the fee increases.

[Emilly Orr]

But those discounts are paired with a fifty cent raise--from .99 to $1.49, US--in all Linden purchases (verified: both from the browser and Lindex). So we're seeing a slow upswing in sim purchases, but we're seeing the Lindex figures drop overall. Won't help anyone if someone buys a sim and no one buys things anymore...

[seph]

"but we're seeing the Lindex figures drop overall"

L$ volume seems the same as past years, no? 70-80 million a day with it spiking north of 100 million at the end and beginning of the month.

Also the trade rates remain improved over how bad they got a year or two ago.

[Chic Aeon]

@ Emily and others with the same sentiment :D

I am having a difficult time figuring out what all the gasping is about the 50% raise in purchasing. It is a PER PURCHASE charge. So simply buying twice as much half as often actually gives you a DECREASE in the overall charge.

Really if folks can't do that they likely shouldn't be buying lindens to spend "in game". Bread and milk and such are better choices.

If people buy sims they will buy things to fill the sims. First most likely comes houses and then landscaping and then decor.

We need to remember that WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF SUMMER SEASON IN SL. It is ALWAYS slow this time of year. Has been for over a decade.

[Clara Seller]

Chic Aeon- there's a practical rationality to your point of view. You're a SL merchant and you come at this world and leave it with that perspective.

I'm a merchant in RL and consumerism is my SL escape hatch. Like you, I am an artist who makes my product and sells it at a premium.

Where we differ, is I don't have the luxury of doing business in a "content creators are king" fantasy. In my world, customers have multiple homes, platinum credit cards, Ivy League credentials, and passports to the world. Even the ones who don't, get treated as if they do. Try slapping a buck-fifty processing fee on a millionaire's credit card and see what kind of reaction you get. Tell them to simply "budget better, if you don't like it" and see how long you stay in business.

From my perspective, this SL fantasy of making customers the "low class" is destroying it. Sansar can't fly because it was designed on this insane premise.

Just my two cents. $1.52 with fees.

[Han Held]

I am having a difficult time figuring out what all the gasping is about the 50% raise in purchasing. It is a PER PURCHASE charge. So simply buying twice as much half as often actually gives you a DECREASE in the overall charge.

I'm not sure if it works out exactly that way or not -I haven't run the numbers. But it sounds plausible. I do know that I'm making larger purchases, less often simply to avoid getting over-charged.

Also I'm cutting back on spending period; though that might be related with growing disenchantment with virtual worlds than with fees.

[Han Held]

Ow, formatting fail. The first paragraph up there is Chic's; the last two mine.