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Monday, January 07, 2019

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sirhc desantis

As well as perhaps not leaving much cash after investors take their share, be careful what you wish for. Worked for a company roughly the same revenue (as far as we know) as SL that was acquired by a whale - within six months it had been assimilated and components that were not of use elsewhere simply ceased to exist. Besides - Cloud Party anyone? (Just realised that was almost 5 years ago - time flies).
Besides that, there are corps out there that would give me serious pause. So its only our collective 25 bucks a month that could walk but don't really feel like being Alphabetised. Well, more than we all are already.

Chic Aeon

I will preface this with the caveat that this is completely my point of view. I have no insider info, only comments and thoughts from other Sansar citizens (some private but many on forums and DISCORD and a matter of public record). This is merely my perception of the state of the nation so to speak. So if I am quoted, I expect that to be a part of the quote! I know how you love making drama when there is really none.

I think we can say fairly honestly that Sansar is a big stuck of late -- at least from some people's perspective. The populous seems pretty divided into various camps with "give us a default avatar so we can BE OURSELVES and create (and play Barbie as Gindipple noted on another forum just now :D) and "We want tech and guns and war" (in more ways than one LOL) -- "who cares what we LOOK like". The Lab, so far, has chosen to side with the latter contingent.

I really love Sansar and I am impressed by much of the tech and especially the LOOK of things and how much easier it is to create there (well, somewhat easier anyway). Still, I too have been thinking about Cloud Party. I was there when they closed the doors five years ago (about when Sansar was first starting I believe -- at least in the planning stage). To date my short time there still has Cloud Party as my overall favorite platform.

Some of the same things that halted Cloud Party are halting (IMO of course) Sansar. Avatars all look the same, it is a PG 13 rated world (guns of course but not even pretty undies for that gals, just painted on army green areas covering more than SFW private areas) and limited income for creators.

This end of year 2018 time reminded me oh so much of Cloud Party's exit month that I was (am) fairly depressed. There is an undercurrent that has me wary. I am still in SL of course, but while my skill-set has been honed in Sansar, things still don't look as pretty on our fifteen year old platform -- especially if you are into game assets over render quality goods that lag down mid range viewers to a halt.

I wish I had a great answer. STEAM doesn't appear to have been it. The community seems more divided than before and that too is very sad. A lot of good creators have left or are on the sidelines. We picked up a couple of impressive new folks in the clothing area so that's a bit of a balance -- maybe. It is hard to say if they will stay after the first excitement diminishes.

Where does that leave us? I don't know. I am one of those now on the sidelines. I am hoping for some announcements at a product meeting or something exciting to play with on update day. I am sure I am not alone. It feels very much (to me) like a pivotal time. I have my fingers crossed that it goes well.

Pulsar

My first thought was Cloud Party too. I'm glad that Sinespace can run on web browsers as well. At least LL can't sell SL to the old Yahoo anymore, whatever is left of that. But if Sansar isn't profitable, it could be dropped eventually.

Second Life was quite an advantage. When Linden Lab started to develop Sansar, unlike their competitors they could count on many costumers already, revenue, no need to search for so many investors and they could afford to hire a larger team. Money, staff, users and the opportunity to make something advanced, well designed and innovative.

Except they didn't exactly that. LL costumers probably talk more about Sansar than other social virtual worlds, but not so happily: LL managed to make their SL costumers felling put aside and, at the same time, to frustrate someone who was hopeful.
Surely you don't want to kill your cash-cow by competing against yourself and to fail with the new product altogether. So you want something different, that could play alongside it, like Minecraft and SL, maybe. They said it was going to be different. Meanwhile users on Steam now - besides reporting various issues that maybe could be improved in future - they are calling Sansar "IMVU clone" or "basically VRChat with microtransactions". "Just play VRChat".
Not exactly innovative or thinking out of the box. The whole thing is seen as the usual stuff with rooms to load. Long to load too.
The interest it got among all the millions of players on Steam? Only few dozen (just dozens, not millions), gave a peek and now it's the usual desert again.

They essentially positioned Sansar next to VRChat now. With social things you aren't competing for a product, you are competing for people. People that want to socialize go and stay where other people are mostly. No people, no party. It's quite hard to compete, whatever the other town square is more shiny or that other product has those extra features. In desktop mode there are IMVU and SL. VRChat got the VR niche already.

Linden Lab missed this boat.

SL keeps Sansar afloat like a life-ring; without SL, Sansar will sink like a rock.

Cyberserenity

Hopefully Sansar technology will trickle down to SL.Sansar is not a product the lab can make a fortune on. There is to much competition.

Nodoka Hanamura (@Rathgrith027_SL)

>Focus on Sansar
>Focus on a dead platform
>Sell the only thing keeping them afloat

Yes, because that's a brilliant idea.

VRChat has the helm of VR Social Environments now, and it'll take a lot to take that from them. Sansar is a dead platform that Linden Lab is desperately throwing money from SL's success at in a vain attempt to be the superior VR platform.

Selling off SL to another company would equal both the userbase possibly suffering at the hands of a total unknown entity that might fuck up the platform (Like Tumblr and Imgur, anyone?), and Linden Lab would in the long term, be up shit creek.

Sansar fails to appease the SL Userbase, and fails to appease the VR userbase, so it is rightly, and totally fucked as a platform unless they're willing to redo the entire thing.

If you want Linden Lab to be more like a Lab - tell them to go become part of a University - they're a company, first and foremost, and companies do not survive on taking on high-risk "experiments" that have failed like Sansar and all the other failed platforms LL has made.

What you're wanting, Irihapeti, is a pipe dream so risky that it makes high-risk stock investors grimace at the thought of it, and Second Life users like me who have invested thousands of dollars and months if not years of time into the platform - laugh at you.

Sansar is a dead platform, and Linden Lab would be doing themselves a favor by doing their best to keep SL going for as long as possible, and if possible, future proofing it for when VR becomes a major platform, so that its' user base can transition to the VR platform.

jredstar

Sansar is DOA. it is and always be a super tiny niche. They will try with what they tried with SL to get corporations on board, but let's face it: as bad as it is to spend hours on SL, it is 100% worse to spend hours on Sansar with a VR headset strapped on your head! and all Sansar ever will be a pretty walk through museum for the typical user. Interaction? Only if you voice, otherwise, you're not welcome. And I am waiting for the studies that show the effects of a VR headset on your face for 4 or 5 hours a day, day in and day out. I get it LL don't want naked pixel people and pixel sex in the new world, but even that probably won't last too long. I am sure creators will find a way as that is what sells

Levio Serenity

all very good points. also, most if not all of the original visionary founders that made it a true "lab" are all long gone now.

Clara Seller

I'm with those who can't see any advantage to selling off SL. The only entities that could afford to buy it are those that would definitely destroy it. As for LL Lab, they haven't had an inventive bone in their body for decades. Go back to being a Lab? That ability was thrown to the wind many, many CEO's ago.

They need a small business leader with a weed whacker from hell to clear the drag on the company and that drag is at the top. They need a plain old human being with eyes, ears, and a brain to lead them out of this mess. It's called "work". They can't afford any more gods.

TD Gunner

Okay, let's get one thing straight; Sansar is not viable. It sucks. It has no value: at all. Period.

All the money they spent is sunk cost. I have a very good top level machine with extraordinary graphics and bandwidth to match it and the experiences L-O--A---D----S...S-----L------O-------W--------L---------Y.

Sansar was to be optimized for Virtual Reality (VR). Wired ran an article that estimates only 726k VR users worldwide on all platforms. How many are active users is anyone's guess but I can guess what LL's piece of the VR pie is: .001%

Do we get the numbers now. Slow, unplayable game + low VR users = no customer base. With no customers there is no income.

Ya know what has customers? Second Life.

So, let's dump Sansar entirely. Salvage what you can and incorporate it into Second Life.

And before some genius mentions that the two platforms are incompatible let me point out that the Lab part of Linden Lab can work to make them compatible.

Or, they can just keep doing what they are doing an sucking on three platforms. Yup, Blockworld is a thing.

howeyzowey@poopoo.com

The company is only capable now of getting a certain dog breed to walk around and do its business on Eggberts head. Call it the Linden Lab.

Anonymous

This is just a troll blog at this point.

But you got me. I’m commenting on your blog. You win, I guess.

Anonynous


all very good points. also, most if not all of the original visionary founders that made it a true "lab" are all long gone now.”

Correct. All the people who originally made Second Life by accident and had no clue who people actually like it are now replaced by people who actually used SL before becoming part of LL.

LL’s familiarity with SL and what we actually want is better now than its ever has been before and their recent feature releases show that.

Anonynous

SL is actually more successful than it has ever been because most of the dissatisfied customers have left. The good ones went to work for LL.

People have been screaming for a new platform and LL gave them Sansar. Just because LL publicly dissed them and used their revenue on an effort to make them obsolete, they can't take a joke.

Hey babe, they did it all for you. Just say thanks.

irihapeti

"this is likely more a thought experiment than a tangible plan:"

"For starters, Linden Lab's original investors would want to take such a large chunk of any sale, there probably wouldn't be enough left over for Linden to return to its days of just being a Lab."

yes. It is a what-if prediction. And if it were to happen then why, what for, and how might it happen if it did.

On the second point you (Hamlet) have made about cash from a sale and what might happen to it.

It doesn't have to be sold to a single buyer. Concerns over a sale can be ameliorated by issuing new additional shares in the Second Life company to new investors who put their money into dividend-returning (cash cow) investments. A cash cow investment is what Second Life now is from an investors pov.

The existing LL shareholders would get some buyback cash from this, and can either retain their existing shares in the Second Life company, or sell them on the open market as they choose. While also retaining for themselves all the shares in Linden Lab Research (Sansar, and the other Lab games) with a cash infusion to the Lab from the sale of new Second Life shares, and a second cash infusion from a sale of additional shares in Linden Research if they so choose

When do this then Sansar will stand or fall on its own merits in the marketplace. And not be tied to the continued success or otherwise of Second Life

Will a change in the ownership structure of Second Life be a good thing. Or might a new board/CEO/management take the users of Second Life into a whole other dimension that the users find difficult. Possibly, but we as users have weathered 4 major management changes and subsequent LL direction changes. We would weather this change as well

It would be the least disruptive change for us as users, because the new investors are buying a cash cow - a stable company with a mature product and a dedicated user base willingly and continuing to pay for the benefits that Second Life delivers to them. Cash cow investors are not interested in investing in real world-changing disruptive technologies. That's what research-oriented companies do

irihapeti

ps

This may never happen. But if it was to happen then I think 2020-2021 would be more likely. As potential new investors will want to see that the region numbers, while now stabilised, continue to hold, and that there is some receipts evidence of this.

If the evidence in 12 months is that the region numbers have stabilised, and that the current uptick in converting users to tier-paying and/or premium continues to also hold, then a sale becomes more likely. As it begins to make a lot more sense from an investors pov

TheaninePete

Look at Tumblr as an example of what would happen to SL if it was sold off.

Any other parent company would likely ban all adult content, effectively killing the platform.

gfcprogramer

Fantastic coments! I may try do a better laser using balistic physics but. What a deception when I try. I want a cute avatar, and my avatar is not cute at all, and could not be even cool because we don't have AO (Animation Override), only some emotes.
The majority of people will not invest in a VR device.
Is not essential!
Not even cheap webcam is present on all machines!
We cannot pose to a place, hug or kiss a friend, and they can only sit now.
Tell me a girl that sit like a man?
And a man that sit like a girl.
Huge update?
At least is here...but something we have been asking since late 2017.
They are trowing away most of the userbase instead of giving them a somewhat moderated side space.
If they want to ignore the nature of human, instead of organize it...At least give freedom to some extent or privacy like in Vrchat.
But is too slow.
Even absolute free, some people will really stick to SL.

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