2018 VR & Virtual World Prediction Review: How Well Did I Do?

While readers post their predictions for 2019, here's a quick fact check on my 2018 prognostications from last January:

Second Life will enjoy a small burst of user growth. Say 100,000 more monthly active users from the 800,000 or so (counting new users who usually churn out).

Sadly No. (Though private sim ownership increased slightly.)

Sansar and High Fidelity won't see mass growth in 2018. I'd be surprised if either gains more than 50,000 monthly users, mainly because they're still optimized for high-end VR rigs.

Disappointingly Yes. Given daily peak concurrency rates in the two-three figures for each, monthly usage for each is probably in the low four figures.

High-end Rift & Vive VR install base will remain low.

Frustratingly but unsurprisingly Yes.

Bitcoin's daily transaction rate to remain well below 500,000 a day. (The major media may finally notice this instead of writing about the irrelevant sales value.)

Also hilariously Yes. And it's been a relief in recent quarters to see tech and business reporters finally inject some skepticism into Bitcoin hype.

So, 3 out of 4 right.

Comments

[Nalates Urriah]

Sony-Crackle has the series "Startup". It brings up some interesting questions about the freedom and use by terrorists of a non-government, non-traceable currency.