VR Headset Install Base Forecast to Reach 50M Total By 2022, With Standalone HMDs Far Outpacing PSVR Sales - SuperData

Leading game/AR/VR industry analyst SuperData just shared with me their latest forecast for VR headset shipments over the next three years, and it comes with some surprises: For one, they see standalone HMDs, in particular the Oculus Quest, shipping at a fast clip:

"We estimate that by 2022, standalone VR headset shipments will reach 19.4M each year (close to 20M)," SuperData Marketing Manager Ziming Wang tells me. As the chart above shows, that means they expect Oculus Quest and others to far outpace console-based headsets like the PSVR, which currently leads the market with over 4 million units sold so far.

I personally suspect the PSVR will perform better than that, but Wang gives me SuperData's reasoning for this forecast:

Forecast featured in Augmented World Expo's presentation by SuperData's Stephanie Llamas (watch above)

"We project console VR headset shipments to remain a more steady state right now and [in] the near future because the current iteration console is near the end of its product life cycle." (In other words, the PS4 is starting to get a bit long in the tooth, and so sales for the console required for the PSVR headset are slowing.) "Since console VR headset's sales are largely related to the sales of consoles, we projected that the shipment of console VR headset will see growth as new consoles launch."

In terms of the entire HMD market: "We estimate the total install base of all platforms will be close to 50M by 2022."

Which is a decent-sized market for VR! However, still quite a niche. By comparison, the PS4, which went on sale in 2013, now has an install base of nearly 100 million. So if SuperData's forecast is right, the total 2022 market for VR will be half the size of a single game console.

Another key takeaway: Developers might seriously consider shifting resources away from PSVR and toward standalone HMDs like Oculus Quest.

20 million per year by 2022 for standalones seems very aggressive to me, but it really depends what they're considering a standalone and which regions they're considering.

— Ben Lang (@benz145) June 26, 2019

Update, 4:27PM: Road to VR's Ben Lang is skeptical standalones will sell this aggressively. He may be right, but I can see Beat Saber and some other games acting as killer apps for Quest, especially if the MSRP goes down in the next few years (as it likely will). However, I do suspect SuperData is underestimating the PS4's longevity. People still play with their Nintendo Wii!

Comments

[Mondy]

My next PC upgrade is probably 2 years away. My last replacement 18 months ago was forced on me because of a complete hardware breakdown and limited budget meant I couldn't get a system that supported VR.
But I've long had an interest in VR and will make sure that I'll have a system that will support it the next time. I've considered a next gen console coming out next year and would be very surprised if the Sony VR system isn't backwards compatible but the thought of being locked into one specific console and gaming platform goes against the grain, plus having to play normal games using game controller only..ugh!
As long as VR in the next 2 years improves and/or drops below the magic 300-400 $/£/€ price point for mass adoption, just like we saw happen with home computers and tablets for mass adoption then probably, VR will finally start to take off.

[Susan Wilson]

I really can't take any projections about VR use seriously at this point considering all previous forecasts have been dead wrong.