Could Linden Lab Save Second Life With A Streaming Service? A Former OnLive Producer Estimates the Costs

Pictured: OnLive service SL Go streaming Second Life on an Android tablet in 2014

We talked about the problems of "updating" Second Life earlier this week (many readers are still talking about it!). Briefly summarized, Second Life runs on a 3D graphics engine that's nearly 20 years old, while upgrading to a new engine, such as Unity, would break most existing content: Creators would have to re-upload their mesh content, while prim-based creations would simply be lost. (And many classic SL regions are mostly or completely prim-based.) 

There is, however, a third option to save SL as it exists: Give it an OnLive-type streaming subscription service, as it used to have four years ago. OnLive subsequently went defunct and was sold to Sony, but most everyone who did use OnLive's SL Go testified to its awesomeness: It not only enabled streaming of high quality graphics on iOS and Android tablets with little lag, it made using Second Life on low-end PC/Mac laptops a dream. (I helped launch SL GO as a consultant/media partner, but now that that disclosure is no longer necessary, I can affirm that, yes, it really was that great.)

But how much would it cost for Linden Lab to fund the deployment of a streaming service of its own? I put that question to Dennis Harper, formerly the Senior Product Manager at OnLive who led the design and production of SL Go, and is now a VP at analytics/entertainment company Asteri.  Dennis tells me the scaling costs would be challenging, but then lays out a couple scenarios where it would work:

"SL Go was reliant on a private network of over 5000 servers in datacenters around the globe," as Dennis puts  it. "That's why they went down.  OnLive was just WAY too expensive to justify the cost.

"Now, if you could promise 10,000 monthly users (or more!) it starts to look like you could break even.  Even so, just to setup the infrastructure would be at least a few million, if not more.

"The only hope for something like this would be to piggy back on other cloud-streaming solutions." As an example, he points to a startup called Frame; presumably Google Stadia could also qualify.

Partnering with a company like that would be more cost-effective in the short term, though personally, I think that makes Second Life too dependent on a third party. Keep in mind that Linden Lab spent an estimated $50-60 million on Sansar, which they are now selling. By contrast, a "few million", or even $10 million, is relatively reasonable investment. It might be a Hail Mary pass, but still much less risky than developing Sansar. 

I believe that SL Go was pretty strongly gaining traction when it was offered as an "all you can stream" option at $10/month. (Though not fast enough go save OnLive.) Getting 10,000 monthly+ customers also seems feasible, especially if you offered streaming as part of a "Premium Plus" package -- say $15 a month for Premium along with streaming. (And there's already around 60,000 standard Premium SL subscribers.)

Doing this would not only keep all Second Life content relevant and looking its best, it would be a chance to find a new audience for Second Life via mobile, and even (eventually) consoles. The other alternatives, by contrast, are not very encouraging.

Comments

[Alicia]

There's one, possibly two... severe... and I really do mean severe flaws in this, and there is absolutely no way possible for Linden Lab to get around this if they go this route as they would need to recoup all this money.

That first, severe flaw would be that Linden Lab would have to force every SL account to become a Premium account. They would have no choice, at that point, if they chose to go with an OnLive-like streaming service. There's way too much risk into doing something like that, and every free account user, who purchases Lindens only, would scream bloody murder. Not only that, but anyone that has multiple accounts logged on would have to pay the Premium costs for every account they have per month, on top of the possible individual charge per month for the streaming service.

For example, if you have five accounts on SL in which one is the Premium account and you decide to go with the streaming service. That $12 per month would become a $60 per month with the monthly charge for the streaming service... let's say it's a $15 per month charge for the streaming service. That's $60/month just for SL before taxes, then the $15/month plus taxes on top of that so really, you're looking at around what... $80 per month for everything.

This would be disastrous for Linden Lab, and quite possibly the final nail in the coffin for SL.

The second severe problem pertains to the sexual content and problems with that specific content. Every game streaming service would tell Linden Lab that there would be absolutely no way in hell they would allow SL onto any game streaming service. Keep in mind, SL IS banned on Twitch because of the sexual content so there's almost a certain chance that every game streaming service knows about Twitch, and their banned games list.

People, you have to look at this from a realistic point of view, rather than pen and paper, because this will absolutely fail.

[Summer Haas]

The most obvious solution would be to add it to Nvidia's GeForce Now service. I'm actually pretty surprised the article didn't mention it.

[Wagner James Au]

Yeah that's another one worth considering. In fact Philip was just testing Now in this post:

https://nwn.blogs.com/nwn/2020/02/philip-rosedale-mouse-latency-nvidia-stadia.html

Hmm wonder what that means?

[Adeon Writer]

Why would I? I have a great PC, no interest in playing games on a phone, and the one thing I would absolutely never do is pay a subscription service for a video game.

No one does that anymore.

[Ezra 2.0]

Personally I do not believe Sansar is gone, whatever intentions they had are still with them, IF Sansar really got sold like patternz also was said to have a few interested buyers..Linden Lab will still have the blueprints & Roadmaps while seeing residents through the eyes of a social agenda.

All i see them doing is pushing a narrative on the forums and inworld group chats "The Lindens are listing to us now" they are reinvesting in SL..Exact same spin when Ebbe came to power over 5yrs ago about Change and lindens listing to us...they are tone deaf make no mistake about that...after 5 yrs of ebbe it's like watching the Inworldz Forums all over again and we all know how that ended.

you have a great idea about SL Go like solution and if they could do regions on demand for homesteads direct from lab no middleman I think they would have a good chance of turning things around.

Something needs to be done I went from being able to pay my real life rent on sales a few months ago to not being able to cover my SL rent this month.

I think its funny how Opensim really has little funding & one or two developers yet they can stay up to date with Linden lab who claims they need dozens of people and months to do the same.
technology has came in went in Opensim, they went through several versions of the rendering system, several physics engines, some managed to add the unity engine in some forks, others had OpenGL Viewers web based browsers, they created mega regions and so many other things we do not have in SL.
Heck they even created Ruth 2.0 that is now becoming the new default body in SL...all with just a few volunteers here and there over the years.

After 5 years of listening to Ebbe flip the script over & over I feel alot like how Clara has felt..It's kicking a deadhorse.

[Lina Pussycat]

Major flaws abound. Streaming services don't work in a few of the key markets for SL. Data caps all over the place for the US. A mobile client would help them somewhat, but it is somewhat silly. You have to remember there was a time SL was on a streaming service. They all add further latency and while some may have good hardware you'd be better off at that point subbing to shadow

[Luther Weymann]

Linden Research is a private company. We don't know gross revenue, operating expenses, net profit, or debt. We don't know if Sansar was funded with company cash reserves, new share sales, bank loans, or other means. We don't know the Linden Research financial position or the future economic welfare for Second Life. When you wake up tomorrow, you could find that Linden Research has given us thirty days to transfer our Lindens dollars into real currency before they shut off the servers and the phones. Our Second Life relationships, our unbelievable amount of personal work we have put into Second Life, could just be over. And as a private company, they can do that without Linden Research ever issuing a public statement about why they closed.

[Carlos Loff]

To do it right they need to open a whole parallel SL world and allow land owners to slowly transiction there, creating specific converting/uploading tools... It all can be done for a big company like LL, they just have to look at it as an investment...

[cormoran]

The Lab better stop trying to do what they don't know how to do. Right now there is no competition, people are increasingly spending time locked at home and soon we will see global blockades. Therefore DO NOT move.

[10PeopleDontNeedACommunityManager]

Sansar or another project that LL can grow into is the answer. Returning to SL and trying to work with aging technology is going to collapse them. The world is moving on, tech is improving as well, we all have to keep up with it - it is what it is.
LL chickening out on Sansar when the best strategy is to gently encourage everyone to retool, refresh and update their content - and encourage creators to upgrade to fbx/pbr creation workflows, the industry standard.
SL is becoming known for the old geriatric baby boomer generation, which to LL , is like serving retirees at a restaurant who will only pay $3 for lunch, when it should be $10 - and putting them slowly out of business.
There is a whole younger generation and inbetween waiting for the next version of SL - LL has abandoned that whole market because of being too strict, too prude and too short-sighted. VRChat is growing because that is what the market wants. VR is still niche, but desktop access to virtual worlds is still of interest to many people.
SL is fantastic in many ways, but the people themselves bad-mouthing every other project LL invests in doesn't help. The average consumer wants Sansar with the options of SL, only sellers wanting to make money in SL see any other project as a threat.
LL has 2-3 years at best with SL and then it will be eclipsed by new technologies - they better start looking at an updated project and hire the right people to help them do it. or bye bye

[Acuolo]

They must update graphic engine, not game engine... Must there are a way of update graphic engine without lost primitive works and others. I can upload my second life crestions to Unity and don't explode... Who is going to pay a subscription to connect to second life? The people want a free app for smartphone to talk with their lover at work or in the bed...

[Acuolo]

Sorry I forgot comment one more thing...

They must care about increase users, not only how squeeze user's poker.

[seph]

The last thing Linden Lab needs to do is invest in another solution in search of a problem, especially one that's failed twice over already (SL Go, Bright Canopy).

It's time for Linden Lab to learn from mistakes, not repeat them. The only reason Second Life is stuck on old tech is technical debt they refuse to shed because they don't want to break content that's upward to 15 years old.

For Second Life's to modernize, Linden Lab needs to be willing to break and remove old content incompatible with any new possibilities. For example, if us gaining PBR rendering and modern scene lighting means breaking the shoehorned material system and windlight, so be it, prepare all of us for it and do it.

If gaining C# scripting means in time older LSL scripts need to stop working, so be it, create a timetable and give everyone ample time to safely switch over.

If gaining the ability to create and upload custom rigs and skeletons means anything bad for bento or animesh, again, properly prepare us on a proper timetable and let's do it.

So on and so forth with anything.

Making cloud rendering available doesn't do anything to fix the feature parity between Second Life and modern game engines like Unreal and Unity. It's not close to belonging in the conversation of what Second Life needs to become modern.

[Fionalein]

I should start taking notes just in cases the Lindens listen to that "Old stuff must be broken " nonsense. So in the eventual event it happens I can point the angry customers the way of the ringleaders of that great idea...

[Lem]

No. I can't afford to pay for a subscription. All the free users will leave.

[Tzedek]

Honestly it's the relationships and outlet that matter. I've been on SL since it was prim-only and have changed my shape, clothes, vehicles and things with the times. I grew up with SL and while the content is amazing, it's not what makes the game. It is time to upgrade to a new game engine though, one that allows larger worlds, better physics and soace., While still lets us be in control of our own world and what we create and look like. I'm content with the content I love and have even built and sold becoming just memories as I move on to new and better things - just as the full-prim items I used to love are now just find memories.

[Scot Highland]

I have one Premium account on SL and 4 or 5 freebies.
I would drop the freebies and keep the Premium.
I have a Sansar Beta Account and the physics are awful.
Clothes fly willynilly, Boots will not attach. Trying to wear a kilt Is nigh impossible. No corrections after posting it as a bug. I'd list Sansar as bad a format as Utherverse and their new format, Curio.

[Fed Up]

I agree with Seph and 10PeopleDontNeedACommunityManager.
Also, how about a web based experience, instead of a viewer?
Cloud Party did this pretty successfully, 6 or 7 years ago.

[sirhc desantis]

http://maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Wisdim%20Isle/150/144/27

nuff said

[David]

Ruckus Allen, just turned 13 in SL. Back then most everything was sold in world. I used to pay my rent from things I made and sold. Now days seems the only market is avatar apparel or animations. The average user is not advanced enough to compete on the market. Unless you own your own sim there are to many boundary's causing vehicle lag, sim crossing.. the cost of having your own land or sim is outrageous. Consider lower cost to own land..

[Alicia]

"The most obvious solution would be to add it to Nvidia's GeForce Now service. I'm actually pretty surprised the article didn't mention it." - NVidia will not allow it, @Summer Haas.

To @Ezra 2.0, LL is pushing a narrative once more just to keep sucking money out of people. All they'll continue to do is add fluff, and more fluff while pushing things back and keeping silent until people forget about it. After that, it's the same old story.

To @Acuolo and @seph, it would have to be a brand new everything (engine, scripting, etc.). All of that costs time and money, and LL lacks both. Remember, they blew $50-60 million on Sansar and everyone knows how that ended up.

To everyone else, LL is in complete and utter damage control at this point. All this, "We're finally listening..." talk is simply more lies. They're not listening. All they care about is taking more money from its users and creators. At the start, and at the end, of the day... it's all about money and how much you give to them. Sim owners are getting rooked out of thousands for multi-sims. They keep screwing the creators, thus, forcing them to raises prices in the MP. They'll never lower costs to own land. There's absolutely zero incentive for free accounts. There's still only one Premium and the incentives are a complete joke. You guys know the rest.

Yes, people stay because of friends and relationships, but that doesn't mean you guys have to continue to take the abuse LL gives you all. There are other virtual worlds out there, yearning to be looked at. Some of which are in open beta which are open to the public. All those other virtual worlds want is a chance to give you guys what LL won't. Think about it everyone. Please.

[Not Happy Jan]

You'd have to be blind not to see where this is going; another great excuse for a cash grab - except this time, it'll be $15 (or more - probably $20) streaming fee on top of a premium membership because they'll use it to force people into paying for premium.

LL have lost my respect entirely.

What a pack of blood-sucking losers they've become.

[Robert McNay]

Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, CBSAccess, Internet connection, Second Life, what's another streaming fee between friends, huh?