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Wednesday, May 06, 2020

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Adeon Writer

You also need to add in the people who paid 1000 USD for the Valve Index + Alyx bundle. Many of them buying it *exclusively* for Alyx.

Wagner James Au

Good point. I decided not to factor in Index sales because that makes the estimate way too complicated -- because then you have to speculate how much profit each Index sale makes, and then you also have to speculate how many people bought an Index mainly for Alyx (versus only and somewhat), and also guess/factor in how many people would have bought Alyx for another HMD if it *didn't* come bundled with Index. Etc!

ArAnAx

Another crap article on VR... It's not about the profit, even though you didn't cinsider the Index selling out, it's all about developing VR further...

Adeon Writer

Well out it this way. When the index went in stock on March 9, welp, at 10:00 AM, I ordered it at 10:01 AM. One minute later.

It’s been over 8 weeks now and my waiting time still says “Greater than 8 weeks”

Alyx or not... Valve is making bank. They can’t make headsets fast enough.

Kent Bye

How would you incorporate the fact that Valve makes 30% off of future XR games sold through Steam? Tons of copies of Half-Life Alyx were bundled with Index headset. The Index has been sold out for months & months. I know lots of people waiting to play it on the Index, because it is by far the best VR HMD.

Valve is collaborating with Microsoft & HP on a new PC VR headset, and reportedly collaborating with Apple on making an AR headset. Valve is more interested in cultivating a more open ecosystem that pushes the medium forward.

There will be an entire generation of XR developers who get their start by modding Half-Life Alyx. It's already inspiring what's possible for the next wave of VR games and set the bar for quality & immersion.

To try to reduce down the impact of this game into a single binary number or profit or loss misses the cultural & inspirational impact it has had and will continue to have on the broader XR ecosystem. Perhaps Half Life Alyx will continue to be a loss leader, but it is certainly paving the way for all sorts of other XR & AR devices from Microsoft, HP, & Apple.

FlipperPA

I'm really glad I bought an Index long before the Alyx announcement, back in November. Three colleagues of mine had to wait months to get theirs, and one of the three is still waiting.

Don't forget, Valve didn't spend that investment just developing Alyx. They've developed a new SDK (including libraries, API, and hardware controls) for future games. There's nothing on the market anywhere close to the level as immersion one can experience in Alyx (Skyrim VR with mods that took the community thousands of hours to develop is the closest), and that will pay future dividends in other games. That's what made the investment worthwhile: a toolbox for future development, an amazing proof of concept on what is possible in VR, and a huge marketing boost for the platform.

TonyVT Skarredghost

I remember having made a similar analysis on Twitter (also tagging you) reaching to similar conclusions. Remember that at the end of Alyx there are the credits with more than 300 people... so probably at least $50M is a reasonable estimate

Wagner James Au

I should add a link to that -- can you plz post it here?

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Wagner James Au
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