I’ve been thinking a lot about Robert Scoble’s guest post last week, in which he argues that Facebook and Apple are the only companies that can take VR mass market -- and therefore, that Oculus’ upcoming requirement of Facebook ID for log-in is a necessary evil to make it mainstream. (Or to soften the blow with corporate speak, a “strategy tax”.)
I don’t dispute Scoble’s analysis; in fact, insiders tell me it’s more or less what Facebook has in mind. But there’s a small problem with Facebook’s plan:
Oculus Quest -- by far its bestselling HMD -- has a tiny install base. Just barely one million. I don’t know if I can fully convey how small that is, but here’s one data point: While it took the Quest over a year just to sell one million units, the Nintendo Switch sold nearly 11 million units during the last holiday shopping season
There’s no evidence that the Quest/Quest 2 market can be expanded much further any time soon. And by insisting on Facebook ID log-in now, when the consumer base is so minuscule, the company runs the risk of totally alienating VR enthusiasts and the development community, further hurting its chances at mass growth.
And for VR developers, there’s really nowhere else to go. Because of the Quest’s small market, VR developers stand little chance of making money from their games -- unless they get funding and promotional help from Facebook:
“If you want to develop in VR, you have to kiss Oculus or get out,” as a well-known game designer and passionate VR advocate told me recently. “I saw that coming and bailed. Facebook is giving [some developers] money but in the long run that just makes it harder for those not getting the cash. It is the problem when the sales don't cover development -- so quality is propped up by funding, which then makes those not getting funding compete against those hyped up games with no chance of making money.”
What about Vive and Steam VR? Or Sony’s PSVR, which actually has the largest install base for a premium HMD, with over 5 million sold?
Second Life Veterans Miss the World's Wild West Days of Creative Anarchy
When I wondered aloud last week if new SL users remember the virtual world's Wild West years of creative anarchy over a decade ago, many old timers replied by more or less sighing, "Those were the days." For instance, reader "Mondy":
Or reader "Jackie", who fondly recalls what we might call an ethical, White Hat Griefer:
I remember those days well and miss them too! I'd also distinguish types of griefing:
Continue reading "Second Life Veterans Miss the World's Wild West Days of Creative Anarchy" »
Posted on Monday, August 31, 2020 at 03:49 PM in Comment of the Week, Social Structures, Social Upheaval | Permalink | Comments (8)
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