Apple Sure Doesn't Seem Like Virtual Reality's Savior

If this new Bloomberg story is right, Apple will not be a mass market player in the VR industry for at least the next five years, and that's by Apple's own design:

Apple’s typical playbook involves taking emerging consumer technology, such as music players, smartphones, tablets and smartwatches, and making it reliable and easy to use for everyone. This time, though, Apple isn’t looking to create an iPhone-like hit for its first headset. Instead, the company is building a high-end, niche product that will prepare outside developers and consumers for its eventual, more mainstream AR glasses.

The plans suggest that Apple’s first headset will be far more expensive than those from rivals, which cost about $300 to $900. Some Apple insiders believe the company may sell only one headset per day per retail store... 

The headset, codenamed N301, is in a late prototype stage, but is not yet finalized so the company’s plans could change or be scrapped entirely before launch. The AR glasses, codenamed N421, are in an early stage known as “architecture,” meaning Apple is still working on underlying technologies. This product is several years away, according to the people, though Apple has previously targeted as early as 2023 to unveil it. 

Emphasis mine, because wow. One headset per day per retail store roughly translates to 500 headsets a day, i.e., less than 200,000 a year, i.e. less than 1 million in 5 years. And even that seems like a generous forecast.

I often hear people in the VR industry talk about Apple like the coming messiah that will catapult virtual reality into the mainstream. That may eventually be the case, but every indication I've seen suggests Apple remains seriously hesitant about entering the space at all, and has built numerous exit ramps, just in case. If overall VR headset sales remain slow, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple's plans never even see the light of day.

Update on Apple's N301 mobile VR/AR prototype via Bloomberg:
* 2022 launch if it makes it past prototype stage
* Not glasses accessible, requires prescription lenses :(
* "AR overlay" capability (passthrough camera?)
* $300-$900
* Prep for N421 AR in 2023https://t.co/g3IIiCTs4t https://t.co/P6BJEep8GP pic.twitter.com/Fl9Dac0pFE

— Kent Bye VoicesOfVR (@kentbye) January 22, 2021

Hat tip: Kent Bye, who has more analysis.

Comments

[joey1058]

I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic.

[Adeon Writer]

Anyone but Facebook.