SL Survey: Over a Third Expect the End of Second Life Gachas Will Hurt the Virtual World Economy

Here's the results of New World Notes' survey on how the coming end of gachas in Second Life will impact the larger virtual economy. A strong majority of the 89 respondents (65%) predicted that the loss of gachas and related events will cause no significant loss in virtual land (i.e. sims) or user activity of people logging into SL for gachas (i.e. concurrency rates).

Then again, that also means over a third of respondents predicted that the going of gachas will substantially hurt the SL economy, with most of them choosing the worst possible impact: Both a significant loss of sims and a drop in user concurrency.

Which side is right? Fortunately we can objectively determine that question later in the year via Grid Survey, by checking sim loss and concurrency trends. At the moment, I tend to think the pessimistic side is right, and that we'll see a greater than average drop-off of both -- for a very simple reason:

The survey likely reflects the opinion of both users heavily involved in gachas and those who are not. If you're in the latter category, you'll probably see the end of gachas as a minor issue, or even celebrate it. By contrast, very active gacha participants will see the larger Second Life economy through the lens of their own interests, and see the banning of gachas as significant.  (Since after all, it impacts them directly.)  

And one in three respondents, if that scales up to the SL economy as a whole, is a very significant chunk of the SL economy. 

But that could be wrong! Since SL gachas are set to be banned starting September 1, let's check back on October 1st, to see what the actual data actually shows.

Comments

[Irene]

I see it as significant but not because of myself. What I see is that a large percentage of the stores that engaged in gachas, have nearly empty stores in the grid. They don't have enough traffic, even if their quality is astounding. Thus, if their RL revenue was in part based off of SL finances. They will scale back their SL involvement and redirect their energy into RL market.

I do not believe that stores will actually engage in more events. There are just way too many current events, to the point that not even a blog such as Seraphim can keep up with all of them. Thus there's just an over saturation in comparison to the number of SL individuals with cash to burn.

This however, is not going to be an immediate effect. This will be a gradual one. The first stores to go are the ones that only do gacha items, and do not want to fatpack them. Nor work on individual piece designs. Next, the ones that lean toward 60-70% gacha. Lastly, the rest that are impacted by those.

If the sole purpose was to get individuals to spend less in SL on one gacha, they will just spend less in SL in general. Thus, while not an immediate change. It will be gradual.

Even some of us sim owners, and ones that were considering getting sims this year are now wondering about our moves.

[sirhc desantis]

Skipped this one as never played an SL gashapon (although did once mistake one for a cigarette machine in Tokyo - it was one of those nights) and my only real knowledge was from being asked a few times to code them. After reading through the numbers wanted I decided that even I was not that much of a merc (was a few years ago). Apart from that, people complaining that the MP was clogged with them + usual empty box scams/no copy stuff.

One prob though question wise - will it hit those sims dependant on it (no brainer if thats all they do) and will the number of users whose sole purpose in SLife was the machines - also a no brainer as I imagine they exist, judging by the eventually tedious ranting in the forum - gave up after what 50 pages? Especially when someone started on about 'no more transfer perms' (give me a break - trading is still legit )

Take out those two questions and the results are even more inconclusive. You'd think the Lab would have worked out what the loss would be (esp as this is response to possible regulatory menace) but hey - its the Lab =^^=
Expect *something* to replace it

[Mint]

I didn't get a chance to vote in the survey before it closed, but I'd count myself as part of the pessimistic third. Full disclosure, I used to buy fro m gacha resellers (mostly clothing and pets) so I'm not exactly a neutral third party here.

From my perspective, I'm very curious about the economic impact of the loss of the gacha reselling community specifically. Even though it's still *technically* allowed after the end of gacha, at some point resellers will be gone as well because there will be no more stock left to sell from.

This means an eventual loss of the gacha resale sims & rental areas where gacha resellers used to hawk their product. And for LL, an eventual loss of the commission they get from Marketplace sales.

It's also a potential loss of income for the resellers themselves. Some may move onto different jobs within SL, some may put in more RL money to make up the deficit, whereas others may spend less in SL because they have less revenue coming in. And of course, fewer people spending L if they really loved visiting gacha/gacha resale and are unwilling to shift that L towards more traditional retailers.

[Joey1058]

I would fall into the two thirds majority. SL didn't collapse when they banned 3rd party L$ reseller exchanges. People just need to readjust their business model. If they can't, then they're doing something inherently wrong from a business perspective to begin with.

[Chic Aeon]

I rarely check out other blogs these days but glad I saw this article - even if it is after the vote. I didn't read any of the comments in the voting post, but I did read the beginning of a very long thread on the SL forums.

I rarely played gacha machines; only the ones with "no losers" enticed me; like twelve colors of a truck. After all you DID get a truck for 60 or 75 lindens and that was usually a good deal. I sometimes bought at the old Seraphim Arcade Sale and recently bought from resellers on the Marketplace. But still, I PREFER copy items since I have lost a fair amount of gachas to the database fairy.

I also made a ton of money MAKING gacha items. So there is that. Two sides; but in the final analysis I am not all that sad to see the take a chance items disappear. It seems like a good portion of gacha makers are planning on repurposing their goods as regular sales or fatpacks. That however bothers me a bit as many gacha events dictated that any future sales of items in their events would have to be gachas. So no changing permissions and no selling individual items. Creators agreed to that in order to be in those all gacha events.

So "I" am retiring all my goods except the copy fatpacks that were in the some regular events with different rules. In my mind I agreed not to sell the items other ways and in changing my stance now as many creators are doing I would be hurting the gacha resellers who played my machines in good faith, assuming they could resell the goods later as "gacha only" goods.

Another comment that appeared on the forum thread a lot concerned commiserating with the gacha creators for losing business. I had to smile at that because I am guessing that folks don't really understand just how much money many of the top gacha creators have already made. (laughing here). "I" made some heart-stopping dinero on my most popular gachas and I was never a top creator, only second tier. The folks who made exceptional goods (and honestly some that weren't all that well-made) have already made plenty. We don't need to feel sorry for them.

As has been noted there are oh so many events these days, so many that the market is beyond saturated and the quality has dropped tremendously over the last couple of years. In my positive thinking best case scenario mode I am hoping that some of the very talented creators will rework their business model and bring some of their creative talents back to the regular sales market. It could definitely use some upgrading.

IF I would have voted I would be in the "other" column. We will lose sims and we will lose players. We have seen that every time we have had a significant change in SL (https://chicatphilsplace.blogspot.com/2021/08/sl-historic-moments.html). But each time we have pulled ourselves up, accepted (usually after lots of yelling) and continued with our virtual lives. So impact? Yes, certainly. But no greater than any of the other upheavals SL has withstood.

And as to The Lab's decision and obvious money loss over this move -- I am guessing that they weighed the loss of revenue against the cost of court battles in the future. Countries all over the globe have or are in the process of considering any form of virtual gambling as illegal. Better to cut losses than wait until the guys with handcuffs show up :D. I am sure this decision wasn't made lightly.