My Metaverse Predictions for 2022: Likely Partnerships / Acquisitions, VR Headset Sales, Scandals & Much More

Better publish them now before we get even deeper into 2022:

Apple will not announce AR/VR products this year.

I still fail to see why Apple would risk its brand on a still-niche product as yet. Also, look at the lame prototype.

Second Life finally gets an official mobile app.

Risky prediction, given a previous SL app project was put on pause last year -- but that was also when a new mobile project was strongly hinted at.

Quest 2 Install Base Remains Under 20 Million in 2022

We'll likely see relatively strong holiday 2021 sales in upcoming earnings reports, but I'm assuming we went into 2022 with a Quest 2 install base of about 6-8 million total, and that the holiday sales brought in 6-8 million more.  

There will be major government involvement over one or more Metaverse platforms.

Since we keep reading stories like this, and most Metaverse platforms are used by children and teens, the chances keep increasing that Metaverse execs will be forced to testify before Congress (or an EU governing body).

Several more after the break!

VRChat or Rec Room will be acquired or partner with a major tech company.

I'd put odds on it being Rec Room, with the likeliest suitor being Microsoft. 

There will be a major scandal or controversy around one of the blockchain/NFT-oriented Metaverse platforms.

With NFTs beset by scams and NFT/blockchain-oriented Metaverse platforms seeing low user numbers but extremely high investment and speculation, this is only a matter of time.  

Linden Lab spinoff startup Tilia to announce major funding or partnership.

The success of Tilia-powered Upland, not to mention the need for a reliable payment provider that can deal with virtual and real currency, means we're likely to read less about Linden Lab's Second Life, and more about Linden Lab's Tilia.

Valve/Steam will announce its own Metaverse product.

When it comes to the Metaverse, Valve remains the dog that doesn't bark -- but can, and should, if it wants to rule this market.

My 2021 predictions were 7 out of 10 correct (or 6 of 10 if you're feeling less generous), so let's see how I do this year.

What would you predict in 2022, dear reader?

Comments

[Bad Player]

12 million is still a good sized install base for the Quest 2. More than enough to justify games from smaller teams.

Not large enough to justify investment from the AAA but that's a good thing in my opinion. AAA haven't had the best track record when it comes to making performant software. 30fps with dips is fine and dandy for Cinematic 3rd Person Action Game #4342515 on the PS5. It would be unacceptable on the Quest.

[Ryan Schultz]

Good predictions!

[FlipperPA]

This is totally anecdotal evidence, but there appear to be a mammoth amount of new Beat Saber players in multiplayer since the holidays. On Expert level, most players in November were about the same level of skill. I'd regularly finished anywhere from 1 to 5 depending. These days, I regularly finish most songs in first place, due to the flood of inexperienced players.

Where previously almost all players would score SS, S, or A level, we're now seeing a lot of B, C, D, E, and Fs.

It appears there are a *lot* more Beat Saber players than there were just a few months ago.

[Sean R. Lynch]

Perhaps not in 2022, but I expect Google to be releasing its own AR glasses sometime within the next few years. They acquired North in June of 2020, and North had acquired Intel's VRD (Virtual Retina Display) technology and also had their own VRD glasses. They've also been moving aggressively into edge computing and server-side rendering, and I doubt it's just so that people can play AAA titles on Chromebooks and Android phones. I think it's also so they can provide high-end AR and VR from lightweight devices with a reasonable battery life.

In addition to low latency and high bandwidth, 5G also has an interesting feature which I don't hear discussed very much: extremely precise localization and orientation. This could theoretically make it possible to use AR glasses while walking down the street without having to use "camera tricks" like the Quest does.